Fantasy Football Outlook: Luke Musgrave, Alvin Kamara, Jaren Hall, Logan Thomas

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Luke Musgrave: Last week, Musgrave handled a 65.3% route run rate with a 7.3% target share, 0.28 YPRR, and a 9.4% first-read share. Musgrave is obviously not fully healthy, as he’s dealing with an ankle issue. In the six games in which he has played at least 67% of the snaps, he has had a 15.2% target share, a 69% route run rate, 1.27 YPRR, and a 16.2% first-read share. The matchup this week is amazing, but I worry if Musgrave is healthy enough to take advantage of it. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-highest fantasy points per game and the highest yards per reception to tight ends. Musgrave has also not drawn a red zone target since Week 3, so I question his touchdown equity in this offense. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB3 in fantasy points per game and RB1 in expected fantasy points per game. He is fifth in opportunity share, seventh in weighted opportunities, and 13th in red zone touches. Kamara also leads all running backs in targets despite only playing five games. His usage has been nothing short of mouth-watering, but his tackle-breaking has remained pedestrian. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 34th in explosive run rate, 57th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 63rd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Kamara will have a tough day on the ground, but he can make up that production through the air. Chicago has been a rush defense to avoid all season. They have held tight with the second-lowest explosive run rate and sixth-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Kamara 62.8% zone). Chicago has the second-best stuff rate as well. Kamara can pick apart the Bear’s zone defense this week through the air. Against zone, Kamara has a ridiculous 26.9% target share with 2.01 YPRR. Chicago has allowed the sixth-most receptions per game and the most receiving yards per game to running backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1

Jaren Hall: Hall can create explosive plays, but his accuracy issues and inconsistent ball placement caused him to slip in the NFL Draft. These warts in his prospect profile showed up in the preseason this year. Among 28 qualifying preseason passers, he was 23rd in passing grade, 22nd in yards per attempt, 18th in adjusted completion rate, and 25th in aDOT. After Atlanta fell on their collective face against Will Levis last week, I expect this pass defense to show up this week. The Falcons have softened, though, as the season has rolled along. They have yielded the sixth-lowest yards per attempt while ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate, but they have given up the tenth-highest passer rating and the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

Logan Thomas: Thomas is the TE8 in fantasy points per game. He is 13th in targets, 15th in target share, and 14th in red zone targets among tight ends. Thomas has four TE1 weeks on his resume this season. New England is 14th in receiving yards and 12th in catch rate allowed to tight ends. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline TE1