Hello and welcome to the Week 9 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my takeaways for Week 9. And below we dive into a few notable players.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Running Back Usage
- The Kirk Cousins injury sucks, it really does. But, now that Cousins will miss the rest of the season, there’s a chance we see Minnesota shift more towards leaning on the run, so let’s examine the recent backfield usage. Cam Akers has been with the Vikings for five games now, but the backfield opportunities have largely still been controlled by Alexander Mattison, who has a 65% share of the running back touches across those five games. However, after being given just 16 total opportunities in his first three games with the team, Akers has handled 13 and 10 opportunities in the past two games. Perhaps the most eye-catching trend from this past week’s game was that Minnesota gave Akers both of the green zone touches (back-to-back carries, one of which he converted to a 6-yard rushing touchdown). Mattison still appears to have a lock on the passing-game work as his routes run rate has dipped below 40% just once since Akers became a part of the picture. That said, the overall value of this backfield (and the other fantasy-relevant pieces of this offense) will drop tremendously without Cousins and his ability to keep the offense moving. With this split becoming slightly more cannibalistic, I’m selling the idea that either Mattison or Akers can provide more than low-upside RB3 potential going forward.
- Action: sell Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers
- It’s time I revisited the Seahawks’ backfield usage because one particular aspect of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet‘s usage this week caught my attention. Specifically, it was that Charbonnet ran a route on a season-high 56% of dropbacks, while Walker was at 32%, his second-lowest rate of the season. They still each saw only two targets a piece, but this puts a slight damper on Walker’s value if he’s not able to fend off Charbonnet as the pass-catching back. Walker has still been given all but two green zone touches this year, but Seattle didn’t have a single one to give in the game against Cleveland. It should also be noted that Walker didn’t practice on both Wednesday and Thursday of last week with a calf injury, yet was removed from the injury report and played on Sunday. I did find Seattle’s game plan to be a little confusing as they dropped back to pass nearly 40 times and rushed it just 13 times with Walker and Charbonnet despite them both averaging over 8 yards per carry in the game. Now, Seattle visits Baltimore as 5.5-point underdogs in a game that could see them passing more, so if Charbonnet is favored as the pass-catching back for that game I’ll start to become more concerned about Walker’s ceiling.
- Action: hold Kenneth Walker, buy Zach Charbonnet
- Last week on Thursday Night Football Chase Edmonds made his triumphant return after a stint on injured reserve. Okay, maybe it wasn’t triumphant, but he was still back on the field. While he didn’t steal much work from starter Rachaad White, who had a 73% running back touch share, Edmonds was given six opportunities (three carries and three targets) on just eight snaps played, so when he was on the field the Buccaneers were keen on using him. White is still fine for fantasy, especially if his receiving workload (he’s averaging 4.3 targets per game) holds steady. But, per NextGenStats, White’s -1.08 rushing yards over expected per carry is the third-worst among qualifying running backs. I’m not confident that Tampa Bay is looking for a reason to give White less work, but he also hasn’t been good enough to warrant them increasing his workload. Edmonds is worth a stash for now.
- Action: add Chase Edmonds
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