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Fantasy Football Outlook: Keaton Mitchell, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Trenton Irwin

Fantasy Football Outlook: Keaton Mitchell, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Trenton Irwin

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Bengals vs. Ravens. Below we dive into a few players that will suit up for Thursday Night Football.

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Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 5 the Bengals have been stuck in the mud while remaining pass-happy. They have had the second-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral passing rate.
  • The pace of this game will crawl. Over their last six games Baltimore has had the fifth-slowest neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Running Backs

Keaton Mitchell: Mitchell has been lightning in a bottle the last two weeks, turning his 14 touches into 200 total yards. Mitchell’s numbers have been ridiculous. Madden on easy mode type of numbers. With his 12 rushing attempts, he has 12 missed tackles forced and 12.0 yards after contact per attempt. The problem is he has played only 27 snaps across the last two games, but Baltimore can ignore this type of playmaking for only so long. If he gets a bump in playing time, he will destroy the Bengals this week. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 12th-highest rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest missed tackles per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: Moonshot flex play

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is the WR8 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 27.8% target share (tenth), a 39.7% air-yard share (15th), and a 35.2% first-read share (ninth) with 2.30 yards per route run (YPRR). Since Week 5, the Ravens have played two high at the eighth-highest rate (52.5%). Against two-high, Chase’s air-yard share has increased to 41.4%, and his YPRR has jumped to 3.14. Chase will have his work cut out for him against a secondary that has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and only two receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Tyler Boyd: Last week, with Chase not 100% and Higgins out, Boyd led the team with a 30% target share while also racking up a 30% air-yard share, 2.79 YPRR, and a 36.7% first-read share. It was a huge game from Boyd. It’s been a while since we have seen a spike week from Boyd, regardless of the situation. That was Boyd’s first 100-yard receiving game since Week 7 of last season and his first game with double-digit targets since Week 4 of the 2021 season. Overall, Boyd has seen a 16.9% target share, a 19.2% air-yard share, and a 19.8% first-read share with 1.30 YPRR. Prior to last week, he had seen three red zone targets in his last four games, so his high-leverage usage was quietly increasing. Since Week 5, the Ravens have played two high at the eighth-highest rate (52.5%). Boyd is third on the team in end zone targets against two-high (three). Boyd will run about 88% of his routes against Kyle Hamilton (57.1% catch rate and 78.1 passer rating). Since Week 5, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4

Trenton Irwin: In Irwin’s two games as a starter for the Bengals, he has had a 71.4% route run rate, 16.3% target share, 27.7% air-yard share, 1.63 YPRR, and an 18.0% first read share. Irwin has one end zone target in those games while finishing with at least 54 receiving yards in each game. There are plenty of flexes that you could do worse by playing this week, but the tough matchup probably halts his hot streak as a starter. Week 11 Positional Value: WR4/5

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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