Fantasy Football Outlook: Josh Downs, Breece Hall, Sam Howell, Kyren Williams

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Josh Downs: Since Week 6, Downs has four games in which he has managed at least 65% of the snaps played with Minshew. Since Week 7, Tennessee has utilized zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate (75.6%). In those four games against zone coverage, Downs has led the team with a 24% target share, 2.20 YPRR, a 22.9% air-yard share, and a 27.9% first-read share. Downs will run about 83% of his routes against Roger McCreary (68.8% catch rate and 83.3 passer rating). Tennessee has done a good job of holding slot receivers in check. Since Week 7, Tennessee has allowed the sixth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4

Breece Hall: Hall is operating inside of a broken offense. He has not rushed for more than 50 yards in any game since Week 6. Since Week 6, he has averaged 16.7 touches and 73.8 total yards, with his receiving role doing the heavy lifting. Over those last six games, he has averaged six targets, five receptions, and 43.5 receiving yards per game. Robert Saleh and I can disagree, and that’s fine, but Hall’s issues haven’t been Hall’s issues. This offense is broken, and he has zero running room. Hall has had to do it all alone for weeks. Among 53 qualifying backs, Hall still ranks 19th in explosive run rate, 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. Look at those numbers and tell me that the problem is Hall. It’s not. Since Week 7, Atlanta has been a neutral matchup for backs, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles allowed per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2

Sam Howell: Howell continues his ascension up the fantasy quarterback ranks. He is up to QB8 in fantasy points per game now. He has finished as a QB1 in each of the last five weeks (QB1, QB11, QB4, QB10, QB10). It’s not always pretty, but Howell’s volume is weekly fantasy rocket fuel. He hasn’t attempted less than 42 passes in a game since Week 6. Howell leads the NFL in passing attempts, passing yards, and air yards. Outside of the amazing volume, he has been playing at an exceptionally high level, ranking ninth in adjusted completion rate, 11th in CPOE, and fifth in highly accurate throw rate. Since Jalen Ramsey‘s return in Week 8, Miami has fielded one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Howell is no stranger to facing tough defenses, as he has tackled the Giants and the Cowboys in the last two weeks and walked away with QB1 days anyway. Week 13 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Kyren Williams: Don’t let last week’s 61% snap share fool you. Bellcow Williams is back. Last week, in the first half with the game within two scores, Williams played 77% of the snaps for the Rams. If the Cardinals could have kept the game close, we would have seen a 70-75% snap rate for Williams. The reduction in second-half snaps didn’t stop Williams from destroying the Cardinals for the second time this season with 22 touches, 204 total yards, and two scores. Williams is an elite play this week. Williams ranks 14th in explosive run rate, 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. The Browns’ secondary has been fearsome all season, while their run defense has been as soft as a sponge. Since Week 7, it has allowed the highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: Elite RB1