Fantasy Football Outlook: Jordan Addison, D.J. Moore, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Tua Tagovailoa: My worries about Tagovailoa were apparently overblown last week as he finished as the QB9 in fantasy. Tagovailoa remains the QB6 in fantasy, ranking second in yards per attempt, sixth in fantasy points per dropback, and first in highly accurate throw rate. Since Week 5, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, but outside of that statistical hiccup, they remain one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Across their last four games, Kansas City has surrendered the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate to passers. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is the QB17 in fantasy with three QB1 outings in his last four games (QB7, QB11, QB10). His fantasy production has been much better than his real-life numbers. Mayfield is 15th in passing grade, 32nd in big-time throw rate, and 21st in adjusted completion rate. There has been a little bit of a divide between fantasy and reality. He could post another QB1 stat line this week against Houston’s pass defense that has held quarterbacks back with smoke and mirrors. They have given up the fewest passing touchdowns this season, which has held back the fantasy production, but every other category screams that the wall will come tumbling down. Houston is also allowing the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest adjusted completion rate, and the third-highest CPOE. Houston is 13th in pressure rate, so they will get after Mayfield this week, but if the Bucs can buy him time, he can torch this defense deep. Houston has given up the seventh-highest yards per attempt on deep balls and the fourth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

D.J. Moore: With Bagent under center, Moore has had a 22.7% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. Moore is fifth in deep targets and 29th in red zone looks among wide receivers. Moore will run about 83% of his routes on the perimeter against Marshon Lattimore (56.8% catch rate and 76.1 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (51.7% catch rate and 43.9 passer rating). New Orleans has allowed the lowest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 9 Positional Value: WR3

Jordan Addison: Without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, Addison has been the WR6 in fantasy with a 20.7% target share, a 34.9% air-yard share, 2.53 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Addison has seven red zone targets over his last three games. Addison will get shadowed by A.J. Terrell (63.6% catch rate and 112.3 passer rating), but that’s honestly a good thing. Terrell has been torched lately. Terrell has followed receivers on at least 50% of their routes eight times this season. Three receivers have surpassed 60 receiving yards in his primary coverage with three scores. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3