Hello and welcome to the Week 11 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my fantasy football trends and takeaways for Week 11. Below we dive into a few notable players.
- Waiver Wire Advice
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- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Tight End Usage
- This year I’ve been trying to be better about reacting more quickly to early signals on changes in player usage, and this week that relates to Luke Musgrave. While his underlying usage hasn’t changed much, what has changed is the nature of his usage. Specifically, his aDOT has risen to 12.4 yards over the past two games after sitting at just 2.2 yards in Weeks 4 through 8. Part of his has to do with him lining up out wide a bit more. In the first eight weeks he lined up out wide on just 5.3% of his snaps, but he’s been at a 9% rate over the past two weeks. Overall, his floor is likely as low as any tight end’s, but the ceiling he can exhibit with these targets further downfield make him worth an add if you’re struggling at tight end. Musgrave is one of just six tight ends this season with at least five catches going for at least 20 yards. Plus, he gets the benefit of several positive matchups for tight ends for the rest of the season, including a juicy one against the Chargers’ terrible defense.
- Action: add Luke Musgrave
Quick Hops
- Jonathan Taylor‘s snap share has risen in every game since he returned from injury, topping out at 89% this past week. He’s back to his full workload and is an RB1 the rest of the way.
- Travis Etienne saw season-low marks in snap share (60%), running back touch share (58%), and total opportunities (13). John Shipley suggested it could be a sign that Jacksonville is “finally set on giving him extended breaks instead of piling the entire running game on him.” I’d guess the game script had something to do with it, too, but with playoff hopes in mind, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jacksonville reduce his workload slightly going forward.
- Odell Beckham Jr. ran a route on a season-low 40% of dropbacks and earned a season-low 9% target share. Meanwhile, Rashod Bateman ran a route on a season-high 77% of dropbacks (just the second time this season he was above 70%) and earned a season-high 17% target share. This could be due to Beckham suffering an injury in the game as he missed practice on Tuesday, so this is something to monitor and would make Bateman a solid flex option on TNF if OBJ is out.
- In the wake of trading away Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cedric Tillman has worked his way into 3WR sets. He ran a route on a season-high 89% of dropbacks, his second-straight game above 70%. Tillman has just four total targets across those two games and with Cleveland’s run-heavy offense he may continue to struggle seeing work, but he’s someone to keep an eye on and stash in deeper leagues.
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