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Fantasy Football Outlook: Joe Mixon, Gus Edwards, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow

Fantasy Football Outlook: Joe Mixon, Gus Edwards, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Bengals vs. Ravens. Below we dive into a few players that will suit up for Thursday Night Football.

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Pace and playcalling notes

  • Since Week 5 the Bengals have been stuck in the mud while remaining pass-happy. They have had the second-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral passing rate.
  • The pace of this game will crawl. Over their last six games Baltimore has had the fifth-slowest neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Since returning to full health, Burrow has been incredible. Since Week 5, he has been tenth in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, and the QB4 in fantasy points per game. Over his last five games, he is third in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns. Over the same span, Baltimore has remained a quarterback-smothering pass defense. They have held quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the seventh-lowest yards per attempt. In his last four meetings against Baltimore, Burrow has not surpassed 225 passing yards in any game and has only one contest with multiple passing scores. Week 11 Positional Value: Low-end QB1

Lamar Jackson: While Jackson’s fantasy output has been disappointing lately, that doesn’t mean that he is playing badly. Actually, it’s quite far from it. Jackson is enjoying arguably his best season as a passer, ranking fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in hero throw rate. Jackson has five weeks as the QB9 or better this season. Since Week 5, the Bengals’ pass defense has still been among the league’s best, but they have allowed a ton of yardage to quarterbacks. Over their last five games, they have given up the third-highest yards per attempt and sixth-highest passing yards per game while also forcing the second-most interceptions with the ninth-lowest passer rating allowed. Since Week 5, the Bengals are 18th in fantasy points allowed via passing. Jackson might not walk away from Week 11 with a monster game, but he can still squeak out a QB1 week. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon remains the Bengals’ workhorse, averaging 18.1 touches and 77 total yards while playing at least 70% of the snaps in every game since Week 2. Mixon’s tackle-breaking metrics have rebounded nicely this season, as he was near the bottom of the league in every category last season. Among 46 qualifying backs, he is 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. He remains a goal-line hammer, ranking tenth in carries inside the five-yard line. The Bengals should feed Mixon this week and lean on their ground game. Since Week 5, Baltimore has been a team that you can run the ball against. They have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Over their last six games, they have allowed the third-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Mixon 52.6% gap). Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Weeks 9-10

Player Rushing Attempts Targets Routes Red zone opportunities
Gus Edwards 16 1 15 5
Justice Hill 15 1 27 4
Keaton Mitchell 12 3 7 1

Gus Edwards: The blowout game in Week 9 muddies up the usage numbers, but this backfield has been split in three ways over the last two weeks. Overall, Edwards has averaged 12.8 touches and 61.3 total yards. Edwards continues to surprise me in elusiveness metrics, ranking 21st in explosive run rate and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Baltimore should lean on their ground game this week. Cincinnati is another team that has been gashed by the run. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 12th-highest rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, and the fourth-highest missed tackles per attempt. Edwards disappointed me last week in a good matchup, but he will come through this week. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2/3

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

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