Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Hunter Henry: Henry has three TE1 weeks on his resume this season, including last week’s TE11 finish. Henry finished Week 9 with a 15.9% target share as he got into the end zone for the third time this season. Henry’s 88% snap share was his highest mark since Week 2. He is 14th in receiving grade and 26th in YPRR. Indy has allowed the second-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1
Jaylen Warren: Warren is the RB33 in fantasy with RB2 outings in five of his last seven games. Over that span, he has averaged 11 touches and 64.8 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics are scintillating as he is fifth in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Warren’s lack of red zone involvement over the last three games (only two red zone opportunities) caps his upside unless he breaks off a long run for a touchdown, but this week’s matchup could allow that. Since Week 4, the Packers have remained a favorable matchup for backs, allowing the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Harris looks primed for his best outing of the season. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2
Jerome Ford: Ford reclaimed his lead role last week with 64% of the snaps played 25 touches and 77 total yards. The problem is Ford still isn’t 100% and it’s showing in his tackle breaking metrics. Last week he didn’t have an explosive run while he struggled with 1.65 yards after contact against a pushover run defense. We could see Ford bounce back this week if he is closer to full strength. In Weeks 1-7, he was one of the most explosive runners in the NFL. Among 59 qualifying backs, he was 16th in explosive run rate, 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. Ford will face off against an average Baltimore run defense. Since Week 5 the Ravens have the ninth-best stuff rate, but they are also 15th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Ford is a good bet for 20 touches again this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2
Trey McBride: Since Week 8, McBride has had a 33.3% target share, a 41.7% air-yard share, 2.13 YPRR, and a 40.5% first-read share. These are bonkers usage numbers. After Clayton Tune derailed the hype train last week, we are ready to get back rolling in Week 10 with Murray’s return. The Falcons have allowed the 13th-highest receiving yards per game and the tenth-highest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 10 Positional Value: TE1
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