Fantasy Football Outlook: Jaylen Warren, Derrick Henry, Kenny Pickett, Will Levis

Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Titans vs. Steelers. Here’s the full Thursday Night Fantasy Football Primer. Below we dive into a few notable players.

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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice

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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice

Will Levis: Levis had a strong debut as the QB6 in fantasy. He ranked sixth in highly accurate throw rate, 14th in adjusted completion rate, and first in fantasy points per dropback last week. Pittsburgh will give him a tougher test than Atlanta offered last week. The Steelers have given up the seventh-highest yards per attempt but they have also kept quarterbacks in check with the ninth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the 12th-lowest passer rating permitted. Levis was tied for the fourth-most play-action dropbacks last week. The Titans wisely built this wrinkle into the offensive attack and Levis responded with 9.6 yards per attempt and a 137.5 passer rating on play-action throws. Pittsburgh has yielded the seventh-highest yards per attempt (15th in play-action passer rating allowed) to play-action passes this season. This is an avenue that Levis could exploit, but he also has to contend with the Pittsburgh pass rush. They are fifth in pressure rate this season. Levis enjoyed the eighth-highest time to pressure last week. That likely won’t be the case in Week 9, so we can get a true litmus test regarding the rookie. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2

Kenny Pickett: Pickett has stated he will start this week, which is surprising considering the rib issue he is dealing with. Pickett has been nothing short of an incredible disappointment this season as the QB32 in fantasy. He hasn’t finished higher than QB15 in any week. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in passing grade, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 32nd in adjusted completion rate. Since Week 4, the Titans’ pass defense has ranked 12th-worst in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, and 13th in adjusted completion rate allowed. In many aspects, they are a middle-of-the-road pass defense, except when you consider, in that span, that have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL. Only two. Two passing touchdowns. That’s it. I wouldn’t be extremely high on a fully healthy Pickett facing this secondary, so a banged-up Pickett is even less enticing. Week 9 Positional Value: Basement level QB2

Derrick Henry: While many of his peers continue to wear down as the carry totals climb in their careers, Henry keeps on trucking. Henry remains a human steamroller. Among 65 qualifying backs, Henry is 15th in explosive run rate, 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 12th in yards after contact per attempt. Henry should have no issues leaving cleat marks up the Steelers’ backs this week. Pittsburgh has been struggling to stop the run all year. They have given up the seventh-highest missed tackles per attempt, the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Henry 53.3% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: Top-5 RB

Jaylen Warren: Warren has averaged 10.1 touches and 51.3 total yards. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. He has been a low-end RB2 or high-end RB3 in weekly scoring numerous times this season. Warren has a tough draw on the ground and through the air this week. Tennessee has the ninth-highest stuff rate and has surrendered the 11th-fewest rushing yards. Even Warren’s pass game role won’t help him against a defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and the second-fewest receiving yards to backs. Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4