Fantasy Football Outlook: Jaylen Warren, Cole Kmet, Jahan Dotson, James Conner

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly fantasy football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jaylen Warren: Warren has been amazing this season. He has been an RB2 or higher in 67% of his games. For all of those keeping up with that in-depth math, yes, it has been in 6 of 9 games (nice :). Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 15.5 touches and 111.5 total yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Warren is third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Warren and Harris should feast again this week against the Browns. Since Week 6, the Browns have given up the second-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-most fantasy points via rushing, and the highest missed tackles per attempt. The reason that the Browns’ run defense isn’t talked about as a weak link is that they have faced the fifth-fewest carries this season. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE6 in fantasy, ranking fifth in red zone targets. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he is ninth in target share (18.0%), tenth in YPRR (1.70), fifth in end zone targets (five), and 12th in first-read share (18.9%). Since Week 5, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (55.1%). With Fields under center, against single-high, Kmet has had an 18.8% target share and a 21.6% first-read share. The Lions have been a friendly matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the tenth-highest fantasy points per game and the 12th-highest yards per reception. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1

Jahan Dotson: Against New York in Week 7, Dotson had eight targets (two red zone targets) with five receptions and 43 scoreless receiving yards (WR43). Since Week 6, the Giants have utilized man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (47.2%). Dotson’s usage against man coverage has increased some in recent weeks. Since Week 6, he has had a 15.4% target share, an 18.9% air-yard share, 1.25 YPRR, and an 18.5% first-read share against man coverage. Against the man coverage heavy Patriots, he posted eight targets, 69 receiving yards, and a score (WR9). The Giants’ secondary has been giving in recent weeks. Since Week 5, they have allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target and the fourth-highest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

James Conner: Conner returned to the lineup last week and played 63% of the snaps rolling up 16 rushing attempts (zero targets) with 73 rushing yards. Among 47 qualifying backs, Conner is still rocking the fifth-best explosive run rate, tenth-highest missed tackles forced per attempt, and the seventh-best yards after contact per attempt. Conner will have difficulty posting a standout stat line this week. Since Week 5, Houston has been among the best run defenses in the NFL allowing the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the lowest yards per carry to zone runs (2.21 ypc). 53.6% of Conner’s runs have been via zone runs. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2