Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly fantasy football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Jared Goff: Goff is the QB13 in fantasy points per game with four QB1 weeks on his resume. He is seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and fourth in CPOE. Goff doesn’t get enough credit for how accurate he has been this season, ranking ninth in highly accurate throw rate and 12th in hero throw rate. The Bears’ pass defense has improved since the outset of the season, but they still aren’t a pass defense to be frightened by. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate, and the eighth-most fantasy points via passing. Over the last two weeks after the addition of Montez Sweat, the Bears still have ranked 17th in pressure rate and 20th in time to pressure. Goff should have plenty of time to pick apart this secondary in Week 11. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1
Michael Mayer: Over the last two weeks, Mayer has had a 54.5% route run rate, an 11.5% target share, 1.00 YPRR, and a 13.2% first-read share. None of these metrics scream “PLAY ME IN FANTASY,” but the matchup for Mayer and the low threshold to be a TE1 in any week puts him on the streaming radar for Week 11. The Dolphins’ outside corners are fearsome, so featuring Mayer this week makes some sense, as well as Miami has been giving up production to the position. Miami has allowed the 11th-highest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: Matchup-based streamer
DeAndre Hopkins: With Levis tossing him the ball, Hopkins has had a 22.4% target share, a 40.5% air-yard share, 2.39 YPRR, and a 26.7% first-read share. Hopkins is the WR31 in fantasy, ranking sixth in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets. This has been an average matchup for wide receivers since Week 6, with Jacksonville ranking 15th in PPR points per target and 11th in receiving yards allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3
James Cook: If you ever want a quick jolt of pain, look at Cook’s usage this season. His snap share has skipped around from 40% to 67% weekly. His workload has been as light as eight touches in a game to 21 touches. It’s a weekly dice roll. Last week, Cook fumbled early in the game and was sat on the bench, which makes all the sense in the world unless you consider that was his first fumble of the season. I could go on and on about that, but I won’t. Overall, Cook has averaged 14.4 touches and 83.7 total yards. He is the RB28 in fantasy, ranking 20th in carries, 22nd in targets, and 22nd in red zone touches. Among 47 qualifying backs, he is 12th in explosive run rate and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. If Buffalo gives him the volume, he will produce this week. The Jets have had issues defending the run. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside
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