Fantasy Football Outlook: James Conner, Roschon Johnson, D’Onta Foreman, Joshua Dobbs

Hello and welcome to the Week 11 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my fantasy football trends and takeaways for Week 11. Below we dive into a few notable players.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Running Back Usage

Rachaad White has become the new poster boy for the Volume is King mantra. With his volume, it doesn’t matter that he’s one of the least efficient rushers in the league (his -0.7 rushing yards over expected per carry is fourth-worst). Even if he were to lose rushing work, his receiving usage is among the best in the league – only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams have run a route on a higher percentage of their teams’ dropbacks. His three touchdowns in the last two games have been huge for him, but he’s one of just eight running backs averaging over five HVTs per game and of the 15 green-zone touches the Buccaneers have had this year, White has been given all but one. He’s a locked-and-loaded RB1 the rest of the way.
- Action: buy Rachaad White
In his first game back from injury, James Conner was not eased into a workload whatsoever as he was given 17 total opportunities on a 63% snap share. His HVT profile is less than ideal, though, as he’s averaging just 3.2 per game in the contests that he’s fully played. I don’t see this changing because, with Kyler Murray also back, the green-zone touches will be shared with Murray like they were with Joshua Dobbs earlier in the season. The benefit Conner has is the lack of competition in the backfield as he earned a season-high 84% running back touch share in his return.
- Action: buy James Conner
I want to believe in Roschon Johnson, I really do, but it seems unlikely that he’ll have the type of breakout that I had hoped for. Johnson has played in three games with Khalil Herbert on injured reserve and has just a 19% share of the carries. D’Onta Foreman, with a 71% rush share over that span, has done enough to earn continued playing time once Herbert does return. The one saving grace that Johnson might have is his pass-catching work. In those three games, he’s run a route on 39% of Chicago’s dropbacks with a season-high 51% in Week 10. Even if he does have that secured, Chicago doesn’t have a game with a neutral-script pass rate over 50% since Week 6 and just one game all year with a positive PROE.
- Action: sell Roschon Johnson