Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly fantasy football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
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Fantasy Football Outlook
David Njoku: Since Week 7, the Browns decided that not featuring one of their best players in Njoku was a bad idea. Over the last four weeks, among 34 qualifying tight ends, he has ranked seventh in target share (21.6%), tenth in YPRR (1.87), tenth in receiving yards per game (53.8), and seventh in first-read share (25%). Over that span, he has been the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in end zone targets. The Steelers have allowed the eighth-highest yards per reception to tight ends, but they have also held them to the sixth-lowest fantasy points per game, partially due to the fact that they have allowed only one receiving touchdown to the position. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1
Luke Musgrave: Musgrave is the TE22 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weeks this season. He has had a 13.4% target share and an 11.1% air-yard share. He is third in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets among tight ends (three red zone targets over his last two games). Musgrave has had at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last two games. Musgrave could have a banner day against a secondary that has allowed the fourth-highest fantasy points per game and the most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 11 Positional Value: TE1
Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is the TE9 in fantasy, ranking first in red zone targets. He has six red zone looks in his last three games. Since Week 6, he has had a 14.5% target share, 1.27 YPRR, and a 14.8% first-read share. Since Week 6, the Panthers have had the third-highest rate of single-high (66.9%). Over the last four games against single-high, his target share has dipped to 9.6% while his YPRR decreased to 1.04, and his first-read share has been 9.5%. Carolina hasn’t been a favorable matchup for tight ends, as they have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-lowest receiving yards per game to the position. Week 11 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR13 in fantasy, ranking 15th in deep targets, but he only has four red zone looks all season (none since Week 2). Overall, Aiyuk has had a 25.5% target share, a 46.3% air-yard share, 3.48 YPRR, and a 28.8% first-read share. Aiyuk should be able to roast this secondary deep this week, as Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most deep passing yards, the third-most deep passing touchdowns, and the fourth-highest deep passer rating this season. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay has the tenth-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single-high, Aiyuk has seen a bump with a 28.4% target share, a 46.7% air-yard share, 3.45 YPRR, and a 29.9% first-read share. Aiyuk will dominate this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR1
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