Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Alvin Kamara: Last week, Kamara’s unbelievable stranglehold on the snaps came to an end as he played only 49% of the snaps with 13 touches and 70 total yards. Now, looking back, maybe we should have seen this coming as his snaps have now declined in each of the last four weeks, with 58% of the snaps played in Week 8. Dennis Allen spoke about wanting to even out the snaps this week (Shoutout to the Coachspeek Index), so this is something we should expect moving forward. Over the last two weeks, Kamara has averaged 17 touches and 90 total yards. Kamara is the RB3 in fantasy, ranking fifth in weighted opportunities and 12th in red zone touches. He’s been a volume and snaps monster until the last two weeks. Maybe the team is seeing the same thing that Primer readers have been, which is that his efficiency has been lacking, and that’s putting it kindly. Among 45 qualifying backs, Kamara ranks dead last in yards after contact per attempt and 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Minnesota continues to shut down running backs on the ground with the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed since Week 5. The saving grace for backs in this stretch has been the 3.2% touchdown rate (13th) given up to backs. Unless Kamara runs hot with touchdowns this week, he likely will disappoint because he won’t be able to make up a ton of his production through the air against a defense that has given up the third-lowest yards per reception to backs. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2
Luke Musgrave: Musgrave is the TE20 this season with a 13.7% target share, a 10.1% air-yard share, and four red zone targets. Last week, he managed his second TE1 finish of the season with his first red zone target since Week 3 and his first touchdown of the year. Pittsburgh has made things difficult for tight ends, allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game and the fourth-lowest fantasy points per game to the position. Week 10 Positional Value: TE2
Zay Flowers: Flowers has had back-to-back disappointing outings, dropping him to WR45 in fantasy. He is still rocking a 23.4% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 26.0% first-read share. Since Week 8, Flowers only has an 11.7% target share, and 8.5% air-yard share as Mark Andrews has been the team’s WR1. Flowers has still led the team with a 77.1% route run rate. Since Week 6, the Browns have been third in man coverage rate (42%). Against man, Flowers has had a 24.4% target share, 1.59 YPRR, and a 23.4% first-read share (leads the team). Since Week 6, the Browns have been mere mortals against perimeter wide receivers, giving up the 12th-highest PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards. Flowers will run about 70% of his routes against Denzel Ward (51.1% catch rate and 80.6% passer rating) and Martin Emerson (39.4% catch rate and 40.8 passer rating). The Browns are a tough matchup that has stumbled recently. Flowers will have his work cut out for him this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3/4
Jahmyr Gibbs: This is a new world that we are living in. One in which people have ceased to grip about Gibbs in fantasy. Yeah, averaging 25.5 touches and 157.5 total yards over your last two starts while playing at least 70% of the snaps in each can do that. In Weeks 1-4, in the three games in which Montgomery was active, Gibbs averaged 11.6 touches and 55.6 total yards playing 27-48% of the snaps. Gibbs has proven he can carry the load in Montgomery’s absence. I expect that this backfield will be closer to an even split moving forward while also understanding that game script will play a big role in each back’s usage. Gibbs has been exceptional this season with the ball in his hands. He is first in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt. He is also seventh in receiving grade, 17th in YPRR, and 13th in missed tackles forced in the passing game. Since Week 5, the Chargers have continued to shut down backs on the ground with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest stuff rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. The area that they have had issues defending is backs in the passing game. Los Angeles has allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to backs. Gibbs should return RB2 value this week with upside for more if Detroit feeds him in the passing game early. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2
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