Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly fantasy football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Diontae Johnson: Since his return in Week 7, Johnson has been the WR28 in fantasy, but the bottom fell out last week. Against the Packers, his target share fell to 17.3%, which isn’t a coffin nail, but when your team switches over to a run-heavy approach, and Pickett throws the ball only 23 times, it’s a huge problem. Over the last four weeks, he has had a 27.3% target share, a 46.6% air-yard share, 2.26 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Johnson’s fantasy value could tank with this drastic shift in the offensive philosophy. Pickett has not been a touchdown machine, which affects Johnson. Prior to last week, he could be looked at as a volume WR2, but now he may be just a volume-based WR3 with shaky touchdown equity weekly. Johnson could walk away from Week 11 with a solid stat line against a secondary that has faltered since Week 5, allowing the seventh-highest PPR points per target. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4
Jordan Love: Love is the QB15 in fantasy with four QB1 outings on his 2023 resume. Love has been incredibly erratic this season, ranking 23rd in yards per attempt, 31st in CPOE, and 21st in highly accurate throw rate. Luckily for Love, the Bolts have created much resistance in the way of quarterbacks all season. They have been a dream “get right” matchup for passers. Since Week 5, they have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the second-highest adjusted completion rate. During this timeframe, they have also been 23rd in pressure rate, so Love should enjoy clean pockets, which he needs. His struggles against pressure have been profound. Week 11 Positional Value: Borderline QB1
Tony Pollard: Pollard remains the lead back of this offense, but Dallas has been featuring the pass and not Pollard. Since Week 8, he has played at least 65% of the snaps weekly while averaging 14.3 touches and 57.7 total yards. Even if we look more recently., since Week 5, Pollard still has been disappointing in tackle-breaking, ranking 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt (among 49 qualifying backs). The role that we wanted for so long for Pollard has been present all season, but it came after the Energizer Bunny ran out of juice. Since Week 5, the Panthers remain a team that you can run on, giving up the tenth-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Pollard 58.1% gap). Pollard is the RB22 in fantasy, and that’s exactly what he is this week. A low-end RB2. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2
Marquise Brown: Last week, in Murray’s return, Brown handled only a 12.5% target share, a 22.1% air-yard share, and a 15.4% first-read share (fourth on the team). Prior to Murray’s return, Brown had seen a 25.4% target share, a 39.6% air-yard share, and a 30.9% first-read share, producing 1.54 YPRR. Brown ranks 12th in deep targets and 21st among wideouts in red zone targets. Since Week 6, Houston has had the third-highest rate of two high (60.3%). Against two high, Brown has seen his usage decline. In Weeks 1-9, his target share dropped to 20.4%, his air-yard share was 28.3%, his YPRR stood at 1.10, and his first-read share was 23.9%. Add these numbers on top of his usage last week against Atlanta, who has had the second-highest usage of two high since Week 6 (63.2%), and Brown’s Week 11 outlook is worrisome. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3
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