Fantasy Football Outlook: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Jameson Williams, Adam Thielen

Hello and welcome to the Week 9 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my takeaways for Week 9. And below we dive into a few notable players.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Wide Receiver Usage

Diontae Johnson has been back in the Steelers lineup for two games and is back to being a target monster once again. After a six-target outing in his first game back, Johnson earned a massive 14 targets in his second game while running a route on every dropback. Teammate George Pickens was the biggest casualty to Johnson’s increased usage as he had just five targets, a season-low mark for him. While he did run a route on all but one dropback (he’s been above a 90% route rate in every game this season), the types of routes that he ran are not ideal for someone you might be hoping for more consistency from. Pickens still flashes big-play ability, so I’m inclined to believe that Pittsburgh will work to get him more involved in the future.
- Action: hold Diontae Johnson, buy George Pickens
Jameson Williams‘ return to action has been a rollercoaster of emotions, to say the least. The Lions have eased Williams back to the tune of a 37% routes run rate in the four games that he’s played. He’s had three targets in all but one game in which he was targeted six times but failed to record a catch. Williams has been a fixture as Detroit’s deep threat with a 15.7-yard aDOT and a 24% air yards share (second on the team in the last four weeks). Overall, he still has yet to break into 2WR sets though, as that role has been held onto by Josh Reynolds (has run a route on over 70% of dropbacks in all but one game). As long as he continues to operate as a field stretcher, I find it difficult to see how Williams can provide any meaningful fantasy value. Then, on Tuesday, the Lions traded for noted deep-threat Donovan Peoples-Jones, so it’ll be even more difficult for Williams to earn a sustainable share of targets, especially as the Lions veer toward a run-heavy team.
- Action: drop Jameson Williams
The Carolina Panthers won their first game of the season on Sunday. It was a game in which rookie Jonathan Mingo had one of his best games of the season, recording four receptions for 62 yards. I would like to think this may be a sign of things to come, and we’ve certainly seen rookies breakout after their bye, but I struggle to find any bright spots. In the five games Mingo has started and finished, he’s run a route on 90% of dropbacks in all but one (was at 84% that week), so he’s seeing the field plenty. But, the issues remain twofold. One, Adam Thielen is dominating targets — since Week 2, Thielen is averaging an outrageous 11.3 targets per game for a whopping 31% target share. Mingo’s 5.8 targets per game over that span is second on the team, but his 0.17 targets per route run rate leaves a bit to be desired. At this point, Mingo’s main competition for targets is DJ Chark (87% routes run rate), as they both operate primarily from the outside while Thielen is in the slot. What has me pessimistic is that Chark’s 14.7-yard aDOT is much higher than Mingo’s 9.7-yard aDOT. With them being used in two more distinct roles, I struggle to see how Mingo will be able to work into more 2WR sets and earn more targets over Chark.
- Action: fade Jonathan Mingo