Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

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Fantasy Football Outlook

Derrick Henry: Henry is the RB19 in fantasy, averaging 17.9 touches and 82.4 total yards. Tennessee continues to make questionable calls with the game plans weekly. Even in a smash matchup last week with positive game script, Henry only saw 18 carries. Henry has not managed at least 20 carries since Week 8. Among 55 qualifying backs, Henry ranks seventh in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. Indy has been a middle-of-the-road run defense in most metrics while ranking near the bottom of the league in others. Since Week 7, the Colts ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 18th in missed tackles allowed per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. They have struggled with letting rushers get into the second-level and against zone runs, which could be the coffin nail against Henry. Since Week 7, Indy has the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt and the 12th-highest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (4.43). 56.3% of Henry’s carries this season have come via zone plays. The King could be headed for his first 100-yard rushing day since Week 8. Week 13 Positional Value: RB1/2

Taysom Hill: Over the last two weeks, Hill has seen his playing time reduced to 30-35% of the snaps played, but that likely changes this week with the Saints running out of healthy bodies on offense. Since Week 6, he has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game, averaging nine touches and 60.8 total yards without counting on his passing production. Hill is a weekly dice roll that can pay off big time with a top-five tight-end finish. Week 13 Positional Value: TE1

Adam Thielen: After his hot start to the season, Thielen has cooled off considerably since Week 8. Over his last five games, he has surpassed 70 receiving yards only twice, with a 24.4% target share, a 25.5% air-yard share, 1.15 YPRR, and a 30.2% first-read share. Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has utilized single-high at the 11th-highest rate (59.8%). Thielen has been the team’s single-high beater this season with a 26.8% target share, a 33.1% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 35.8% air-yard share. Thielen will run about 70% of his routes against Christian Izien (80% catch rate and 104.1 passer rating). This could be the Thielen bounceback spot. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards to slot receivers this season. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2

Nico Collins: In the seven games this season that Collins and Dell have been full-time players, Collins has had a 21.0% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, 3.05 YPRR, and a 27.4% first-read share. Collins has seven red zone targets over his last four games. Since Week 7, Denver has utilized single-high on 56.8% of their defensive snaps. In those seven games against single-high, Collins has had a 22.3% target share, a 24.2% air-yard share, 4.40 YPRR, and a 28.1% first-read share (ted with Dell). The biggest issue for Collins is that he will likely see shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain this week. Collins has been a boundary receiver all season, with only one game with higher than a 26.9% slot rate. Surtain has only rolled into the slot for 19 snaps this season, so it should be easy for Surtain (62.7% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating) to stay with him. Surtain has seven games this season in which he has followed the opposing team’s top receiver for at least 57.7% of their routes. The list of receivers is insane. Surtain has shadowed Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson, D.J. Moore, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams. Only Hill and Moore surpassed 40 receiving yards in primary coverage with Surtain, and none of them scored touchdowns while shadowed by Surtain. Downgrade Collins this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3