Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Christian Watson: Since Week 5, Watson has played 82-88% of the snaps weekly with a 19.4% target share, a 41.3% air-yard share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 22.5% first read share. Love has been dragging him down. If you turn on the film, Watson has been running wide open numerous times, with Love only able to deliver inaccurate targets. Since Week 5 among 72 qualifying wide receivers, Watson is 47th in fantasy points per route run but also 20th in expected fantasy points per route run. The problem in this passing offense is not Watson. Among 83 qualifying wide receivers, Watson is 11th in open score behind DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Lockett. If Love can get his act together, Watson could melt the Ram’s secondary in Week 9. Since Week 4, the Rams have allowed the seventh-highest passer rating, the third-most passing yards, and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Since Week 5, Watson has led the team with seven deep targets (35% of his target volume). Watson will run about 69% of his routes against Akhello Witherspoon (since Week 4: 55.2% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (since Week 4: 73.7% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside
D’Onta Foreman: I didn’t see this coming last week. The Bears turned this backfield into a dreaded three-way committee, essentially crushing every running back’s value on this team. Foreman played 32% of the snaps with ten touches and 36 total yards. He didn’t even register a red zone touch despite leading the team in rushing attempts. Among 65 qualifying backs, he ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. The Saints are a slightly below-average matchup for Foreman. They have the 13th-highest stuff rate while holding backs to the eighth-lowest yards per carry on zone runs (Foreman 60% zone). Week 9 Positional Value: RB3/4
Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke has looked good in limited duty for Atlanta, with 8.3 yards per attempt, a 79.1 passing grade, and a 76.5% adjusted completion rate. It’s a small sample, and we have a much larger body of work of Heinicke being a high-end backup and below-average starter when he has been thrust into the position. The biggest question for Heinicke this week will revolve around how he handles the blitz. If last season’s body of work is any indicator, he should fare well. Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the league (52.7%) while ranking 20th in pressure rate. Last season, Heinicke (among 42 qualifying quarterbacks) was seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and fourth in big-time throw rate against the blitz. Since Week 5, this Vikings pass defense has solidified, allowing the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passer rating, and the 12th-fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 9 Positional Value: QB2
Demario Douglas: Douglas will lead the Patriots’ passing attack this week. In Week 8, he had an 84.4% route run rate with a 24.1% target share, a 27.2% air-yard share, 0.93 YPRR, and a 28.6% first-read share. Since Week 6, Washington has allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target and the third-most receiving yards to slot receivers (Douglas 74% slot). Douglas is a strong flex play with a tangible upside this week. Week 9 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside
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