Fantasy Football Outlook: Deebo Samuel, Travis Etienne, Jaylen Waddle, Justin Fields

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly fantasy football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Justin Fields: The last time we saw Fields, he was fresh off QB3 and QB1 finishes in fantasy before an injury booted him from his Week 6 game against Minnesota. The rushing upside is always present with Fields, especially with the Bears recommitting to using his legs. Fields is second in rushing yards per game and sixth in red zone carries per game. Fields remains an underrated passer. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in yards per attempt, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in hero throw rate. Since Week 5, the Lions have been a team that you can pass against with a high degree of success. They have allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns (tied), and the 12th-most fantasy points via passing. Fields’ biggest concern is against the Lions’ pass rush. Detroit is tenth in pressure rate. Against pressure, Fields has been middle of the road, ranking 20th in adjusted completion rate and 17th in passing grade. Since Week 5, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (55.1%) and have allowed the second-highest fantasy points per dropback in single-high. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks against single-high, Fields is tenth in yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback against single-high while also ranking sixth in CPOE. This game could turn into a shootout easily. If that happens, Fields could be a top-three quarterback this week. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle is the WR24 in fantasy, with seventh red zone targets across his last six games. After Week 4, the Dolphins woke up and realized that Waddle remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL at destroying zone coverage. His Week 1-4 usage was blasphemous, with a 16.4% target share, an 18.0% air-yard share, and an 18.9% first-read share despite producing 2.80 YPRR against zone. Since Week 5, his numbers against zone are closer to what we should expect, with a 22.8% target share, 33.5% air-yard share, 2.95 YPRR, and a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 5, among 70 qualifying wide receivers (minimum 75 routes against zone), Waddle has been the WR6 in fantasy points per route run and the WR1 in expected fantasy points per route run. Why do I keep running on and on about Waddle against zone coverage? Well, since Week 5, the Raiders have the third-highest rate of zone (81.3%). Week 11 Positional Value: WR1

Travis Etienne: Last week was the first time that Etienne’s snap share has fallen below 72% all season. He finished with only 11 touches and 44 total yards. I expect his snaps to bounce back this week. He is the RB4 in fantasy, ranking fourth in snap share and opportunity share. Etienne is second in carries and sixth in targets. Among 47 qualifying backs, Etienne is 20th in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. The Titans have shown some cracks in the run defense armor recently. Since Week 5, they have been 17th in explosive run rate, 14th in yards after contact per attempt, and they have allowed the highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.3). Only 44.4% of Etienne’s runs have been on zone concepts, but he has been more effective with zone plays (4.24 ypc vs. 3.20 ypc). Etienne could enjoy a nice bounceback this week if he can get loose on a few zone carries. Week 11 Positional Value: RB1

Deebo Samuel: Samuel is the WR33 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, a 17.2% air-yard share, 2.26 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. He has five red zone targets in his six full games played. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay has the tenth-highest single-high rate (57.9%). Against single-high, Samuel has disappeared (in his five full games) with a 14.7% first-read share, a 17.2% air-yard share, 0.78 YPRR, and a 15.9% first-read share. The 49ers’ passing attack will feature Aiyuk and Kittle this week. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3