Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly fantasy football Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
David Montgomery: Last week, Montgomery had a successful return to the lineups with 12 rushes (zero targets) and 116 rushing yards. His day would have been a letdown for many if he hadn’t broken a 75-yard run for a score. Outside of that monster run, he had 11 rushing attempts with 41 rushing yards and a 38% snap share. I’m not a big proponent of the “well if you take away this big play, then” type of analysis, but with his limited volume and low snap count, the downside and floor are very real. Montgomery was still active in the red zone, finishing with a 40% red zone share of the backfield work last week (60% Gibbs). With Gibbs outpacing Montgomery in every facet, we have to come to grips with the fact that Montgomery’s early season domination of the workload is likely gone. Montgomery still has been one of the best pure rushers in the NFL this season. Among 47 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. His value is closely tied to what he produces on the ground moving forward, and this week could be tough. Since Week 5, the Bears have not allowed an explosive run. They also have the best stuff rate, the third-best mark in yards after contact per attempt, and have given up the fewest fantasy points via rushing. Montgomery is a good bet for 12-15 touches this week, but if he doesn’t score, you’ll likely be disappointed. Week 11 Positional Value: RB2
Sam Howell: Howell has jumped up to the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He’s been a lucrative source of volume all season, ranking first in passing attempts, passing yards, and air yards. He ranks fifth in passing touchdowns, 12th in CPOE, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and ninth in hero throw rate. The Giants’ pass defense has declined since Week 6, allowing the eighth-highest yards per attempt, passing touchdowns (tied), and fantasy points via passing. Howell should flirt with another QB1 game in Week 11. Week 11 Positional Value: QB1
Calvin Ridley: Ridley has been boom or bust all year. He has three games as a WR3 or higher, but also Ridley has five games in which he has failed to surpass eight fantasy points. Ridley is 15th in deep targets, but he only has five red zone targets this season. Since Week 6, the Titans have utilized two-high at the tenth-highest rate (52.1%). Against two-high, Ridley’s target share has fallen to 12.4% with a 27.9% air-yard share with 1.31 YPRR and a 16.0% first read share. Ridley has already faced the top-three teams in two-high rates since Week 6 (KC, HOU, ATL), and against them he averaged 36.6 receiving yards with only one touchdown. Week 11 Positional Value: WR3/4
Kenneth Walker: Since Week 8, Walker has played 41-49% of the snaps, averaging 13 touches and 71.3 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics paint the clearest picture over this period that he isn’t close to healthy. Among 46 qualifying backs, he has ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 5, the Rams have held backs to the 13th-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Walker 63.9% zone since Week 8). Week 11 Positional Value: RB2/3
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