Fantasy Football Outlook: David Montgomery, Christian Watson, Gus Edwards, C.J. Stroud

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

C.J. Stroud: After last week’s historic performance, Stroud is the QB5 in fantasy. Stroud has been a stone-cold baller since Week 3, ranking seventh in passing grade, second in yards per attempt, and eighth in hero throw rate. He faces a stout Cincy pass defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the tenth-lowest fantasy points per game passing and the ninth-lowest passer rating, but the Bengals are not without their warts. During this stretch, they have also given up the fourth-highest yards per attempt, which can be attributed to their problems defending the deep ball. Over their last four games, they have allowed the fifth-highest passer rating, the eighth-most deep passing yards per game, and the eighth-highest deep completion rate. I can’t wait to see Stroud go toe to toe with Joe Cool this week. Week 10 Positional Value: QB1

Christian Watson: With Love struggling, this entire passing offense has been hampered. Since Watson has returned to a full-time role, he has had a 17.1% target share, a 41.2% air-yard share, 1.81 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. He has only two red zone targets over his last four games while noting that both came in Week 8. Over the last two weeks, the Steelers have allowed Joey Porter Jr. (28.6% catch rate and 46.3 passer rating) to shadow as he followed Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins on 50-76.5% for their routes allowing an average of only 36 scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. Don’t expect Watson to do much this week. Week 10 Positional Value: WR3/4

Gus Edwards: Edwards is the RB26 in fantasy, ranking 33rd in opportunity share and 34th in weighted opportunity. Edwards is also 19th in red zone touches. He has run hot with touchdowns over the last three games with six scores. Among 45 qualifying backs, he ranks 17th in explosive run rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards played only 18% of the snaps last week after not playing less than 50% of the snaps in his last three games. This can be attributed to Baltimore blowing the doors off Seattle last week. Edwards should smash the Browns, who, since Week 5, have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 10 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

David Montgomery: Montgomery practiced in full on Wednesday. I expect him to be back this week and play his usual role. In Weeks 1-5, he averaged 23.3 touches and 104.6 total yards while playing at least 71% of the snaps in three of four games. Among 45 qualifying backs, Montgomery is 19th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. I would love to tell you that Montgomery will return to a 70% snap role this week, but we could see more Gibbs this week, especially considering the matchup. If the Lions do get up early, Montgomery would be the one grinding away the clock. The Chargers have been a run defense to avoid all season. Since Week 5, they have continued to shut down backs with the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-highest stuff rate, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Montgomery is still a good bet for at least 15 touches and goal-line work this week. Week 10 Positional Value: RB1/2