Fantasy Football Outlook: Dak Prescott, Sam Howell, Joshua Dobbs, Russell Wilson

Every week we’ll bring you my rankings and tiers. You can find the full weekly fantasy football article here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Dak Prescott‘s point totals in his last three games: 24.9, 29.1 and 28.4. He’s QB1 in fantasy points per game over that span. Dak doesn’t figure to get much resistance this week from a Giants pass defense that ranks 20th in DVOA. The primary concern if you’re a Dak stakeholder is that the Giants, 17.5-point underdogs, might not be able to stay close in the second half, which could mean that Dak ends up with well under 30 pass attempts.

This might be the first time all season I’m above consensus with my ranking of Sam Howell (QB9). I’m still not convinced Howell is good, but he’s been throwing like crazy. Howell has exceeded 40 pass attempts in five of his last six games. He’s averaged 42.3 pass attempts and 300 passing yards a game over that stretch. And the thing is, there’s little chance that Howell’s passing volume normalizes. The Commanders’ defense is a sieve (29th in defensive DVOA), so Howell is going to be forced into a bunch of O.K. Corral-type shootouts, and Washington is averaging a meager 90.1 rushing yards per game. Keep playing this young Wyatt Earp.

Josh Dobbs’ performance in his Vikings debut was storybook stuff. He wasn’t even supposed to play but was forced into action after rookie Jaren Hall sustained a concussion. Dobbs threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in Minnesota’s 31-28 upset of Atlanta. Dobbs will make his first start for the Vikings this weekend against a tough Saints defense that ranks ninth in DVOA against the pass. I don’t expect him to post sexy passing numbers after having less than two weeks to process a new system, but Dobbs is averaging 45.5 rushing yards over his last four games and has run for a touchdown in three consecutive games. That sturdy rushing floor makes him a viable streaming option in a week where appealing QB options are few.

Russell Wilson is averaging just 25.8 pass attempts over his last five games. The Broncos have exactly a 50/50 run-pass ratio over that stretch. Wilson is having a nice rebound season after a disappointing 2022. He ranks fifth in both passer rating and TD passes. But Wilson only ranks QB16 in fantasy points per game, and lack of pass volume is a big reason he hasn’t been a more prolific fantasy scorer. I’m below consensus on him this week, ranking him QB16.