Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Raheem Mostert: Mostert has had tough matchups each of the last two weeks, but Week 9 should allow him to get back on the good foot. Mostert remained the team’s leadback last week despite injury concerns entering the game, as he played 56% of the snaps. He has averaged 14.5 touches and 83.9 total yards. He keeps trucking along this season as one of the most explosive backs in the game. He ranks seventh in explosive run rate, 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. The Chiefs continue to struggle in the run defense department with the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest stuff rate, and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Mostert should be a key cog in dismantling Kansas City. Week 9 Positional Value: RB1
C.J. Stroud: Stroud flopped last week in what looked like a beautiful spot. It looks like it was just a down week from Stroud. He was not under duress as he was 27th in pressured rate, but he finished 17th in adjusted completion rate and 22nd in highly accurate throw rate in Week 8 as the QB25 in fantasy. Stroud is a better quarterback than he showed last week, but maybe I got ahead of his actual standing right now. Stroud is 16th in passing grade and fourth in yards per attempt, but he’s also 26th in adjusted completion rate and big-time throw rate. Tampa Bay should allow a bounce-back opportunity for Stroud. They are 25th in pressure rate, so Stroud should have all day in the pocket. This defense has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most YAC, and the ninth-highest YAC per reception. If Stroud can get the ball in his playmakers’ hands, he’ll post a nice stat line in Week 9. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1
Chris Olave: Olave has had a disappointing season. He’s the WR33 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in target share (25.3%), 14th in air-yard share (39.8%), and 17th in first-read share (32.2%). Olave is 56th in fantasy points per route run, but he is also 31st in expected fantasy points per route run. It’s been a season of miscommunications and flub-ups on big plays like last week’s game, where a ball bounced off his helmet. Olave ranks first among receivers in deep targets and 20th in red zone targets (three red zone targets across his last two games). Olave is due for a big game, and he could pop off here against a Bears secondary that is tenth in yards per attempt and 14th in deep adjusted completion rate. Chicago has utilized zone coverage on 74.1% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Olave’s air-yard share has increased to 42.6%. Olave will run about 63% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (72% catch rate and 125.6 passer rating) and Kyler Gordon (85.7% catch rate and 99.4 passer rating). Week 9 Positional Value: WR2
Jonnu Smith: Smith could be the same London bump if the start receiver can’t go in Week 9. Smith has a 13.3% target share, an 11.1% air-yard share (6.3 aDOT), 1.80 YPRR, and a 16.1% first-read share (third on the team). 50.9% of Smith’s receiving yardage has come after the catch. Minnesota is 18th in YAC per reception allowed, so this isn’t a smash matchup for Smith’s YAC prowess. Smith does run 62% of his routes from the slot, though. Minnesota has allowed the tenth-highest PPR points per target and the eighth-most receiving yards to the slot. Week 9 Positional Value: Borderline TE1
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