Fantasy Football Outlook: Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, Kyler Murray, Keenan Allen

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Keenan Allen: Allen remains the WR2 in fantasy, ranking 17th in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets. Allen has been on a tear with at least 14 targets, 10 receptions, and 106 receiving yards in his last three games. Allen has commanded a 31.8% target share, a 37.8% air-yard share, and a 41.3% first-read share while producing 2.75 YPRR. Since Week 7, New England has utilized man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (46.4%). Against man, Allen has a 31.2% target share, 2.43 YPRR, and a 37.9% first-read share. Allen will run about 59% of his routes against Myles Bryant (84.3% catch rate and 111.9 passer rating). Week 13 Positional Value: WR1

Kyler Murray: In his three starts, Murray has finished as the QB13, QB6, and QB9 in fantasy. He has a rushing touchdown in each game while averaging 28.7 yards on the ground with two red zone carries per game. Murray’s rushing production has propped up some rather pedestrian passing numbers. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, and 39th in CPOE and adjusted completion rate. With a banged-up receiving depth chart, Murray is in trouble this week. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the tenth-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest CPOE. Murray will need every bit of rushing production this week to sneak into the QB1 ranks. Week 13 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has raised his season-long stock recently to WR20 after posting top 15 wide receiver finishes in three of his last six games (WR13, WR6, WR15). The problem is in his other three games in that sample, he has finished as the WR27, WR39, and WR36. Waddle still has a similar weekly ceiling as last year, but in 2023, the weekly floor can bottom out at any time. Hill is absorbing so much target oxygen from the passing room weekly that it crushes Waddle’s fantasy stock at times. Since Week 8, Washington has utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate (42.0%). This is likely one of those weeks where Waddle has a middling game. Against man, Waddle has an 18.9% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, 2.57 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Since Week 7, Washington has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR2/3

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR12 in fantasy while leading the 49ers in deep targets (14). His issue remains with his lack of a red zone role, with only one target inside the 20-yard line since Week 4. Aiyuk won’t need the red zone looks this week, though. Since Week 7, the Eagles have operated with the seventh-highest rate of man coverage (33.5%) and with 57% of their defensive snaps in single-high (PHI: fourth-highest fantasy points per dropback allowed in single-high). Aiyuk has destroyed single-high and man coverage, with Samuel in the lineup leading the team in target share, air-yard share, and YPRR against both. Adding Aiyuk’s deep pass game role on top of this, he is set to smash this week. Since Week 7, the Eagles are tied for the most receiving touchdowns allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Week 13 Positional Value: WR1