Fantasy Football Outlook: Aaron Jones, Derek Carr, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Aaron Jones: Last week, Jones saw his highest snap share of the season with 51% of the snaps while logging 11 touches and 46 total yards. Jones still is lacking his usual burst. Last week, he didn’t rip any explosive runs or forced any missed tackles while he posted only 2.57 yards after contact per attempt. Overall, this season, Jones has zero explosive runs. Among 65 qualifying backs, he is 62nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. The Rams began the season as a matchup to target on the ground, but they have toughened up. They are 13th in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt allowed while bolstering the 11th-best stuff rate. Week 9 Positional Value: RB2/3

Derek Carr: Since Week 6, Carr has been showing some life for fantasy. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt, ninth in hero throw rate, and 11th in fantasy points per game. Across his last three games, he is second in passing attempts and passing yards per game. Carr looks headed for another QB1 performance this week. The Bears have bled out the tenth-highest yards per attempt, second-most passing touchdowns and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate. Week 9 Positional Value: QB1

Zay Flowers: Well, so much for Zay Flowers week in Week 8. That clearly didn’t work out, but this week brings a new matchup. Flowers has a 26.3% target share, a 27.5% air yard share, 180 YPRR, and a 29.9% first-read share. Seattle has the highest zone coverage rate (84.9%) in the NFL. Against zone, Flowers’ air-yard share has bumped to 30.3% while his YPRR (2.02) and his first-read share (32.7%) have also increased. Flowers is tenth in deep targets and 17th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Flowers will run about 69% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (42.9% catch rate and 53.2 passer rating) and Tariq Woolen (66.7% catch rate and 93.1 passer rating). Since Week 4, Seattle has allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR25 in fantasy, ranking 18th in deep targets. He also has six red zone targets in his last two games. McLaurin has started to heat up with at least nine targets and 63 receiving yards in each of his last three games. The Patriots have the fourth-highest rate of man coverage (38.4%). Against man coverage, McLaurin has a 26.1% target share, a 46.4% air-yard share, 2.07 YPRR, and a 29.6% first-read share. Week 9 Positional Value: WR2/3