Fantasy Football Outlook: A.J. Brown, Curtis Samuel, James Conner, Jared Goff

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jared Goff: Goff is the QB13 in fantasy with five QB1 weeks on his 2023 resume, including two in his last three weeks. Goff ranks sixth in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and third in adjusted completion rate. Goff should post a solid stat line this week and flirt with QB1 numbers against what has recently been a middle-of-the-road Saints pass defense. Since Week 7, they have ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 15th in CPOE, and 19th in adjusted completion rate. On Thanksgiving, everyone saw Goff get eaten alive by pressure, but the Saints won’t be able to bring the heat as Green Bay did. Since Week 7, New Orleans has generated the ninth-lowest pressure rate, along with ranking dead last in time to pressure. Week 13 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

James Conner: Last week, the Cardinals were getting blown out, and Conner only played 42% of the snaps. I don’t think that’s indicative of his role. In his previous two games, he averaged 66% of the snaps with 16 touches and 68 total yards per game. Conner ranks ninth in explosive run rate and fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt. The volume of previous seasons has not been there this year. Conner has only one game this season with at least 20 carries. Conner is in for a long day in Week 13. Since Week 7, the Steelers have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game while also holding backs to the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Week 13 Positional Value: RB2/3

Curtis Samuel: Samuel is the WR48 in fantasy points per game who has flashed a high ceiling when the matchup is right. He has four WR2 or higher finishes this season and could add another this week. Since Week 8, Miami has the sixth-highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (81.2%). In the nine games this season in which Samuel has played his usual snap amount, he has had a 13.9% target share, 1.62 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share against zone. Miami has allowed the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (tied) and the 12th-highest passer rating to slot receivers this season. Samuel will run about 73% of his routes against Kader Kohou (84.6% catch rate and 129.8 passer rating). Samuel should eat this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR5 in fantasy, ranking second in deep targets. Brown has four red zone looks in his last five games. He’s been relatively quiet over the last three games by his standards, only surpassing 60 receiving yards once. This week, Brown should smash. Since Week 7, the 49ers have utilized single-high on 57.5% of their defensive snaps, but last week, it climbed to 62.9% with Talanoa Hufanga out for the season. Among 88 qualifying receivers against single-high, Brown ranks second in target share (34.7%), first in air-yard share (51.2%), third in YPRR (3.87), and first in first-read share (45.1%). Among the same sample of wide receivers, Brown is third in fantasy points per route run against single-high. Brown will dominate this week. Week 13 Positional Value: WR1