Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Black Friday Football: Dolphins vs. Jets.

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Black Friday Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

• MIA -7.5, O/U 41
• Dolphins vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Over their last five games, New York ranks second in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.
• The Dolphins continue to champion the slow-and-throw club. Since Week 6, they have ranked 24th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa is the QB11 in fantasy points per game, with QB1 finishes in 60% of his games this season. Tagovailoa has adamantly answered this season any lingering questions about his ability to be a franchise quarterback. He is second in passer rating, fifth in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. The Jets are a difficult opponent, allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate since Week 6. Tagovailoa has the talent and skill players around him to grind out a QB1 finish this week. Week 12 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Tim Boyle: Well, the Jets have made a change at quarterback. Will it be one for the better? I don’t know, but we will find out this week. Boyle has been a career backup. His only stretch as an NFL starter came in 2021, when he got three starts. In that season, among 46 qualifying passers, Boyle ranked 44th in yards per attempt, dead last in big-time throw rate, and 43rd in passing grade. Not good, Bob. Not good. Since Week 8 (Jalen Ramsey‘s return), Miami has been a pass-defense juggernaut, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate. Don’t depend on Boyle in any format. Week 12 Positional Value: Sit

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert: Last week, with Achane knocked out of the game and Jeff Wilson inactive, Mostert played 79% of the snaps with 23 touches and 93 total yards. Mostert should be the leadback this week, even if Achane plays. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is third in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. Mostert should see 15-20 touches this week in a neutral matchup. Since Week 6, the Jets have held backs to the tenth-lowest explosive run rate and 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, but they have also given up the 12th-highest missed tackles per attempt and have the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1/2

De’Von Achane: Achane left last week’s game after tweaking his knee. He only logged two touches and three snaps. He has practiced on a limited basis so far this week, but it’s up in the air if he will play. After last week’s scare, I doubt he would be thrust back into the lead role if he is active. With Achane’s explosiveness, he doesn’t need a ton of work to produce a wonderful stat line. He is still rocking a wondrous 17.9% explosive run rate, 51% missed tackle forced per attempt rate, and 5.51 yards after contact per attempt. The Jets are a middle-of-the-road run defense. Since Week 6, they have held backs to the tenth-lowest explosive run rate and 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, but they have also given up the 12th-highest missed tackles per attempt and have the ninth-lowest stuff rate. Achane is a volatile flex. Week 12 Positional Value: RB2/3 with RB1 upsi

Breece Hall: Since Week 5, Hall has averaged 18.5 touches and 98 total yards. His pass game role has helped keep him afloat because, with the Jets’ offensive woes, he hasn’t surpassed 55 rushing yards since Week 5. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is 14th in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Hall likely has another day of tough sledding on the ground against a run defense that has given up the 12th-lowest explosive run rate, the lowest missed tackles per attempt, and ranks 15th in yards after contact per attempt since Week 6. Hall should still enjoy a good day as a receiver. The Dolphins’ stats against receiving backs have been depressed as they have faced the fewest targets per game to the position, but they have allowed the third-highest yards per reception to backs. Hall is tenth in targets, sixth in receiving yards, and 11th in receptions among running backs. Week 12 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: Hill remains the WR1 in fantasy, ranking third in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets. He is third in target share (30.0%), sixth in air-yard share (43.9%), first in YPRR (4.27), and sixth in first-read share (36.5%). Hill is impervious to matchups. He plays. You start him. Easy game. Week 12 Positional Value: WR1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has been reduced to a WR3 this season. Tyreek Hill has owned so much of this passing attack this season that it has left little on the bone for Waddle. Waddle is the WR25 in fantasy. Waddle has only five games as a WR3 or higher this season (WR31, WR20, WR13, WR27, WR6). He ranks outside the top 30 fantasy wide receivers in deep targets and red zone targets. He has only one red zone target over his last four games. He has seen a 20.8% target share, a 27.0% air-yard share, and a 23.8% first-read share with 2.49 YPRR. With only three touchdowns this season, the reduction in volume and lack of touchdowns has crushed his weekly floor while he can still pop off for ceiling weeks. Waddle will run about 74% of his routes against D.J. Reed (70.4% catch rate and 85.6 passer rating) and Sauce Gardner (65.7% catch rate and 89.2 passer rating). New York has allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR30 in fantasy, ranking ninth in deep targets and red zone looks among wide receivers. He has handled a 29.3% target share, a 48.3% air-yard share, and a 40.6% first-read share with 1.79 YPRR. Wilson has been the lifeblood of the Jets’ anemic passing offense. He has been a volume play only this season, with only two receiving touchdowns (none since Week 2). Wilson will run about 69% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (25% catch rate and 0.0 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (69.4% catch rate and 93.6 passer rating). Since Ramsey’s return, the Dolphins have allowed the tenth-lowest PPR point per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 12 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Conklin has handled a 12.4% target share and 12.0% first-read share with 1.57 YPRR. Conklin has three TE1 weeks this season. His chances of scoring a touchdown are slim weekly, with only four red zone targets this season and only two over his last five games. Miami has been a kind matchup for tight ends, allowing 11th-most fantasy points per game and 10th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Week 12 Positional Value: TE2

Black Friday Football DFS Lineup Advice

MIA vs. NYJ

• Top shelf captains: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, MIA DST
• Contrarian captains / Flex plays: NYJ DST, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Tyler Conklin

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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*