8 Risky & Safe Starts: Week 11 (2023 Fantasy Football)

The fantasy playoffs are quickly approaching and now is the time to nail those start and sit decisions every week. This article will shine a light on some of the safer options you can rely on and also mention some of those that could give you potential headaches in the coming days.

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Safest & Riskiest Starts for Week 10

Riskiest

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

If you took a holiday somewhere out of the reach of television or Wi-Fi and then returned to hear that the Baltimore Ravens scored 30+ points in three consecutive games, then you’d likely feel pretty good about Lamar Jackson’s fantasy production. Well, that hasn’t been the case. Jackson has been efficient for the most part and only turned the ball over twice (both on interceptions), but he only threw two passing touchdowns in those three games and has just 10 touchdown passes on the season.

Jackson’s improvement as a passer hasn’t delivered for fantasy and with matchups on the line it’s fair to be irked by the lack of production. Jackson takes on the Bengals this week on Thursday Night Football – a game that will make or break his NFL MVP credentials. The Bengals allow the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and give up the second-most rushing yards to the position. It’s now or never for fantasy managers with Jackson this year.

DJ Moore (WR – CHI) @ Detroit Lions

It’s been an up-and-down season for the former Panthers receiver. The Bears acquired Moore with the hopes he’d elevate Justin Fields to the next level. Instead, the quarterback questions intensified. Moore’s production also plummeted since Fields missed the past four games with a dislocated thumb: Moore averaged 52.75 yards per game without Fields compared with the 97.0 yards per game when Fields did play. Those numbers are somewhat inflated by Moore’s Week 5 explosion for 230 yards against the Washington Commanders, but the point remains that Moore hasn’t managed more than 60 receiving yards in five consecutive weeks.

With Fields expected to return to the field, what version of Moore will we see? The Week 1 version where Moore had two receptions for 25 yards or the version who was rounding into form before Fields’ injury? Either way, in two of the Bears next three games Moore will face a Lions defense that has allowed only five top-24 wide receiver games this year and the eighth-lowest catch rate to wide receivers.

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) vs. Tennessee Titans

It hasn’t been pretty for Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars offense this year and they now rank 19th in FTNFantasy’s DVOA. Lawrence was expected to take another step forward after an impressive second half of 2022, but instead he has only two multi-touchdown games this season. And since Week 3, he’s just the QB23.

Lawrence’s average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.9 yards, which ranks 45th among quarterbacks. He also ranks 16th in passing expected points added (EPA). The Titans allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and have only allowed four top-12 finishes so far. The Jags and Lawrence have enough time to get things right, but it needs to happen quickly.

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL) @ Carolina Panthers

The Dallas Cowboys have dominated opponents and tried hard to get Pollard going – which makes sense given they franchise tagged him this year and have little else at the position to pick up any slack. But Pollard is failing to break off long runs and hasn’t converted red zone carries into touchdowns despite running well with an average of 4.1 yards per carry over the past three games. Pollard hasn’t visited the end zone since Week 1 and he is responsible for only 8% of the Cowboys’ touchdowns.

The Carolina Panthers represent one of the most welcoming defenses in the league for running backs and have given up a league-leading 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game and the second-most fantasy points to the position. But will it matter? Sooner or later, positive regression will happen for Pollard. But after failing to reach double-digit points in five of the past six games, can you really trust Pollard?

Christian Watson (WR – GB) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Green Bay Packers looked to have found something special in Watson when he scored 99.2 PPR points between Weeks 10 and 13 of 2022. But then again, that was in the Aaron Rodgers era who, despite not playing at an MVP level anymore, was still a massive upgrade over Jordan Love.

The new Packers quarterback has a deep ball completion rate of 28% – which ranks 30th among quarterbacks with 50 or more pass attempts. Watson’s 38.5 receiving yards per game ranks 61st among wide receivers, his 2.3 receptions rank 71st and his catch rate of 42% ranking dead last among 113 WRs with 10 catches or more. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most wide receiver fantasy points per game, which might help Watson get the kick-start he sorely needs.

Safest

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) vs. Tennessee Titans

Since the start of this season, Kirk is averaging 14.0 PPR points per game despite a Week 1 nightmare total of 1.9 points. Kirk has averaged 7.9 targets per game as well, which puts him 20th among all wide receivers. He’s finished as a top 24 receiver five times, a number only bettered by eleven receivers.

The Titans, meanwhile, have allowed ten receivers to finish with 14 or more PPR points, including two in the past two weeks. They also allow the fifth-highest points to slot receivers, where Kirk plays 71% of his snaps.

Mike Evans (WR – TB) @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers defense is perhaps living off its reputation from the past few years when the secondary was a more formidable unit than the current one. Since Week 4, the 49ers have allowed three top-six wide receiver finishes. And across the course of the season, they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers lined up out wide – where Evans frequently finds himself 72% of the time. Evans is averaging 81 receiving yards per game (13th-most) and has six touchdowns (third-most), despite up-and-down play from Baker Mayfield. This could be another explosive week for Evans as he inches closer to yet another 1000-yard season.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) vs.  New York Giants

At the start of the year, Robinson Jr. scored 42.5 PPR points in the first two weeks combined. He went on to score 42.0 points over the course of the following four weeks. Since then it’s been more of the same – until Week 10 against the Seattle Seahawks when Robinson finished as the RB1 overall with 157 total yards that included 119 receiving yards.

The Washington Commanders involve their running backs more in the passing game recently to help quarterback Sam Howell avoid taking sacks and it’s helped the team as a whole take a step forward. The Giants allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (111) and the second-most rushing touchdowns per game to running backs (1.1) along with the seventh-highest yards per reception to the position (8.1). Robinson could be in for another very good day for fantasy managers this week.