5 Stats To Know Before Setting Your Fantasy Lineup (Week 11)

As the season dwindles, we must amplify our research to win in these crucial weeks. Each victory moves us closer to the ultimate goal, the championship. With that said, each stat here moves us closer to our micro goal in that picture: a win in Week 11.

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5 Stats To Know Before Setting Your Fantasy Lineup

The Deep Ball Brings All The Points To The Yard

Yes, once again, I am back with song lyrics, except instead of milkshakes, we are talking about quarterbacks and the deep ball. It’s impressive when your quarterback can gain yards at the drop of a dime. It can be week-winning when your quarterback can gather BUNDLES of yards at the drop of a hat. So, which quarterbacks bring that to the table? Well, let’s look at the top five passer ratings on throws of 20+ yards or more:

1) Mike White 158.3
2) C.J. Stroud 145.8
3) Brock Purdy 143.8
4) Andy Dalton 141.4
5) Justin Fields 131.9

Now, we can eliminate Mike White and Andy Dalton. Let’s focus on the rest, though, shall we? C.J. Stroud is second; that’s a rookie with the second-highest passer rating in the NFL on this passing level. That is an unreal thought. Stroud is followed by Mr. Irrelevant and a quarterback who is one of the most extensive debates on Twitter about his future under center in Chicago.

Two of these are rostered on most teams, but if you are struggling at quarterback, see if Brock Purdy is on the waiver wire. He can win you a week in fantasy football. The 49ers play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday, and you can boat race (get it?) their defense through the air.

Noah Arc

That was a pretty good title for a Noah Brown section, even if it wasn’t a song, right? However, we do have to talk about the story’s arc with Noah Brown. He has put up 325 receiving yards in his last two games. When you look at the stat above with C.J. Stroud and combine that with the fact that Noah Brown has the fifth-highest percentage of receptions that go for 20+ yards, your team is a shoo-in to have a stack attack against your opponent, right? Well, pump your brakes for a minute.

The Houston Texans face the Arizona Cardinals, which is a plus matchup. However, Noah Brown missed practice Thursday due to his knee. If his lower body struggles to be healthy, that threat of explosion from Noah Brown can be neutralized from the beginning of the game. Proceed with caution on this streaky wide receiver.

You’re In The Middle Of The Ride; Everything Will Be Alright

If you picked up this Jimmy Eat World reference, pat yourself on the back because you are fantastic. We discussed the middle because we need to discuss the intermediate throws of 10-19 yards. Some quarterbacks are doing their thing on these throws, which are the hardest to hit in the NFL. Let’s look at the top five in the NFL when it relates to passer rating on this depth of throws:

1) Lamar Jackson 130.3
2) Kirk Cousins 127.8 (Heal Up!)
3) Jalen Hurts 127.2
4) Jared Goff 123.8

Can you guess No. 5?

Did you guess Tyrod Taylor? No, don’t worry, not even Tyrod Taylor would imagine himself. Due to injuries, we move on from Kirk Cousins and Tyrod Taylor and look more in-depth with Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Both quarterbacks have been accused of struggling to hit “MVP-worthy” throws in the past, yet this stat shows they can command the field in the most complex areas. Lamar played last night against the Bengals, so this section will tell you to start Jalen Hurts with confidence (obviously) in Week 11.

This stat will also show you that an option like DeVonta Smith, especially without Dallas Goedert, can take over in the back half of this season. Even with the Chiefs playing well against wide receivers, please don’t be scared to start a struggling Smith, as his quarterback needs someone to command the section of the field that he likes to dissect weekly.

Why did I skip over Jared Goff here? Well, he is playing well this season, but we knew Jared Goff could command short to intermediate throws before this season, so this isn’t news.

Let Me See If You Can Run It, Run It?

We all love “Run It” by Chris Brown, but we can also love these five teams running the ball at a high clip when trailing by seven or more points:

1) Chicago Bears 40.5%
2) Cleveland Browns 40.4%
3) Atlanta Falcons (SHOCKER ) 40%
4) San Francisco 49ers 38.3 %
5) Detroit Lions 37.5 %

Right now, we can ignore the Falcons. Arthur Smith would run the ball somehow in a baseball game.

However, let’s talk about the top two teams: the Chicago Bears and the Cleveland Browns. The Bears face the Detroit Lions this week, and you may be in a situation where you are worried about the touches that these running backs may be facing.

If byes/injuries have you looking into the Bears backfield, don’t fret. The Bears will stick with the running game regardless. It is a tough matchup against the Lions, but if you need volume, the Bears could work for you. Just keep an eye on the injury report for Khalil Herbert to decide on him or Foreman.

The Browns are without Deshaun Watson for the season, forcing them to become even more run-centric within their offense. If they were already committed to the run at this pace, imagine what it would be like with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. Jerome Ford will continue to be a volume king, and expect Kareem Hunt to receive more total touches.

One Last Time, I Need To Be The One Who Takes You Home

Yes, we used an Ariana Grande song here to hammer home this quick point to finish the article, but this stat has many implications for your fantasy football season. Let’s quickly break down the top five teams that have the highest pass rate inside the five:

1) Cincinnati Bengals 67.7

With Joe Burrow injured, Joe Mixon could get a jump in attempts.

2) Washington Commanders 63.1

The Commanders have been top-five in neutral pass rate since October; stats like this worry me for Brian Robinson and his fourth overall RB ranking in 2023.

3) Miami Dolphins 62.6

De’Von Achane should bring this back down, but honestly, who wouldn’t throw to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all day, regardless of where they are on the field?

4) Minnesota Vikings 61.6

This stat, plus Joshua Dobbs‘s love for tight ends, could mean a TE1 finish for T.J. Hockenson this season.

5) New York Jets (WHY!?!) 58.9

You have Breece Hall as your running back and Zach Wilson as your quarterback. WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!?

Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros and reach out on Twitter with any other questions for me at @jpep20. Good Luck in Week 11.