With the NFL celebrating Thanksgiving all 32 teams are back on the field for Week 12 and fantasy rosters are blessed with a plethora of choices to make once again.

With the playoffs inching closer, now is the time to nail your start and sit decisions. This article will give you the reasons for faith in your selections, or perhaps a little moment of pause.

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Riskiest & Safest Starts for Week 12

Riskiest

AJ Dillon (RB – GB) vs. Detroit Lions

It seems more than likely that Dillon will be leaned upon for lead-back duties against the Lions on Thanksgiving after fellow rusher Aaron Jones was carted off against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Dillon has looked nothing short of awful at times this year and even when Jones missed three games earlier this season. Dillon put up a pathetic 8.07 PPR points per game, a minute difference from the 7.56 he’s averaged with Jones this year. The Lions allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, give up the fourth-fewest rushing yards (62), the second-lowest yards per carry (3.5) and the fifth-fewest RB receptions per game (3.4). It’s a tricky time of year for fantasy managers, but if you have a better option you’ll probably want to take it.

Tony Pollard (RB – DAL) vs. Washington Commanders

Pollard has had some plum matchups in the past few weeks and only managed to deliver one good performance since Week 6 when he put up a mediocre 18 points against the moribund Carolina Panthers despite the game being closer for longer than many expected. The Cowboys simply aren’t using Pollard how they did in 2023 and with more up-the-gut runs, Pollard’s efficiency has dropped. The Commanders are by no means a good run defense, but they are even worse against the pass – an area the Cowboys have been leaning into heavily of late – with one of the highest pass rates over expected across the league. You likely have to start Pollard here, but we need some more consistency before it’ll feel okay.

Since Week 9 among 47 qualifying backs:

Tony Pollard

3RD in explosive run rate
8TH in missed tackles forced/attempt
16TH in yards after contact/attempt pic.twitter.com/XgtkOJ0sQh

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 21, 2023

Geno Smith (QB – SEA) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Nobody loves playing on a Thursday after a Sunday game, but Smith likely feels more annoyed about the schedule than most after he sustained an injury to his throwing arm during the Seahawks’ Week 11 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Smith missed two drives during the second half of the game because of the injury. Although he returned late into the game, he looked less than 100%. Now on a short week, Smith will face one of the most formidable defensive line units in the league in a game the Seahawks need to win. This warning also goes for all Seahawks players. If Smith can’t play or plays injures, they’re all likely to be on the field less or out there with Drew Lock, which could be very bad news.

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) vs. Cleveland Browns

One of the more surprising stats of the season is that Sutton has managed to score a touchdown in all but two appearances this year and leads the league with eight red-zone touchdowns. Sutton has sustained his fantasy production through these touchdowns, but it might be an uphill struggle against the Browns. Cleveland allows the fewest receptions per game to wide receivers (8.6) along with the second-fewest fantasy points.

Courtland Sutton, you sick freak! pic.twitter.com/Ev1qNfoDFz

— Chuck Bass (@ChuckBassFF) November 14, 2023

Marquise Brown (WR – ARI) vs. Los Angeles Rams

This season was supposed to start slow for Brown before it picked up when Kyler Murray returned from his ACL injury. Instead, Brown flashed to start the year and then dropped off before Murray even returned. It got even worse once Murray got on the field: Brown has averaged 3.5 PPR points since Murray’s return. The Rams defense hasn’t been as fruitful for matchups as we expected this year, allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, with the seventh-lowest catch rate allowed. Brown and Murray will no doubt click at some point, but are you sure it’s going to be this week?

Safest

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers defense is flat-out one of the worst in the league across a variety of areas: They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers, the second-highest yards per reception and third-most receiving touchdowns per game. This is all before we even consider the running game where the Chargers also woefully underperformed despite the players the team invested in. Without tight end Mark Andrews, the Ravens need a player to step up. And when Andrews missed Week 1 against the Texans, Flowers saw 10 targets and no other player saw more than three. Flowers could do with scoring more touchdowns to help his value, and he couldn’t wish for a better matchup to start doing so.

Didn't count but it was awesome ?‍♂️@ZayFlowers | Next up 11/26 SNF on NBC! pic.twitter.com/7TC1KzvCOI

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 17, 2023

AJ Brown (WR – PHI) vs. Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs always looked like a potential stumper for AJ Brown, as they’ve clamped down opposing wide receivers all season and since Week 4 have only allowed two receivers to clear 15 points. However, the Bills’ secondary has been a problem for weeks: They gave up big performances to Courtland Sutton (17.3 points), Chris Godwin (17.8) and Tee Higgins (19.0) since Week 8. Brown has been remarkably consistent this season outside of his most recent performance and this can get him back on track.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seven different wide receivers have scored more 20 PPR points against the Buccaneers this season, including four since Week 8 alone. The Bucs have given up the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers this year and allowed the joint-second-most yards and the seventh-highest catch rate. Pittman has averaged 17.0 PPR points across his past five games and finished no worse than WR16 in that spell despite matchups against the Saints, Browns and Patriots. Pittman’s ceiling might not be the highest, but as a WR2, he’s performing admirably.

Tank Dell (WR – HOU) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Not much was expected from the smaller build third-round rookie wide receiver in Houston, but Dell has turned out to be one of the most pleasant surprises of this season. Dell has had five performances with more than 18 PPR points – more than Ja’Maar Chase and Davante Adams and the same amount as CeeDee Lamb. Though Dell might not quite be in that tier of receiver, what we’ve seen from him has been exceptional. And now Dell faces a Jaguars side which allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers playing out wide. Saddle up for another fun game.

How High does @DynastyIsland rate Tank Dell? Check out this 60 second clip to find out ⬇️⬇️⬇️@MyFantasyLeague pic.twitter.com/ZMJc1ckJxs

— The Fantasy Sanctuary (@TheFFSanctuary) November 21, 2023

Adam Thielen (WR – CAR) vs. Tennessee Titans

Thielen saw his fantasy output drop to 11.1 points per game and his yards per game fell to 47.6 in the three games that Frank Reich gave up play-calling duties this season. But with Reich calling plays once again in Week 11, Thielen saw eight catches for 74 yards and scored 15.4 points against a tough Cowboys secondary. Thielen averages 20.3 points when Reich’s been calling plays and has highly productive from the slot, an area the Titans struggle mightily against. They’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opponents in this alignment. Thielen is back until we see otherwise.