Tons to discuss, so let’s get straight to it. As always, don’t forget to hit up sportsmedanalytics.com for the latest injury breakdowns throughout the week, and find us on Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis and @FantasyPros all season long. Now here we go:
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Week 6 Fantasy Football Injury Report
TBD. Lean slightly towards playing (55% chance in our data). If active, data projects 20% production hit and high re-injury risk. By Week 7, that should decrease to only a 10% hit, so improvement should be noticeable.
Ekeler’s battled the same injury as Saquon, and timelines suggest similar severity as well. However, Ekeler has had 5 weeks to recover now, and that is the key difference that makes him a promising play. At this point, production hit only projects at ~10%, and re-injury risk is similarly relatively low.
ARSB’s progression over the last 2 weeks suggest this was an abdominal muscle strain. Good news is that upon return, these don’t tend to impact WR productivity. Re-injury risk is present, but relatively low at ~10%.
Expect Herbert to be at peak production despite a finger fracture/dislocation on his non-throwing hand. He’ll be wearing a glove to help grip the ball, and likely be looking slide to protect the ball rather than extending for extra yards. The main change is that he should be in the shotgun more frequently since it decreases the risk of hitting the finger on the center-QB snap exchange. Mild risk of re-injuring this if he takes a bad fall, but even then, he could probably keep playing with a splint on the finger like he did Wk 4.
TBD. Comments suggest he’s going to play, but the data still slightly favors sitting. 60% of pass-catchers of his profile would not make it out there following a Thursday aggravation of even a mild mid-game calf strain. If he does play, the performance impact projects to be low, but re-injury risk is high at ~20%.
Out this week. His progression suggests they’re treating as a moderate severity hamstring, which averages ~3 weeks. Since his injury occurred mid-last week, that would lean us towards 1 more week out before his return, but will be updated following next week’s practice progress.
That calf is almost certainly recovering. Burrow moved well both within and outside of the pocket last week. We still have to cross our fingers for another ~2 weeks before we’ll see his re-injury risk substantially decrease, but all signs are pointing up so far.
Likely playing. Typically see a moderate (~10-15%) efficiency hit in WRs first game back from a mild hamstring strain. The more concerning is that WRs with similar injury history and age project as high risk players for 6 weeks following in-season hamstring strains.
TBD. Data projects 70% chance to play, likely with a numbing injection pre-game. However, WRs typically do see a real production dip of ~20% efficiency. Re-aggravation is somewhat of a concern, but eased a bit because they have a Wk 7 bye to recover if that occurs.
Returning to game action is tied closely to the player’s psychology. The Browns have made it abundantly clear that Watson has been cleared for 2 weeks now, which suggests that this one is no longer a purely medical decision and now just up to him. No telling when he decides to that. This one might go on for weeks.
Likely playing it safe because a neck strain may decrease his ability to protect that area while getting hit, and he has a pretty notable injury history there. But the MRI reports sounded relatively favorable, so we’d lean towards a Wk 7-8 return.
TBD. Still has a chance to be cleared for Sunday, but very few players have made it through concussion protocol in only 7 days, so data says we shouldn’t be expecting that from Tank.
TBD. Kincaid is ahead of average concussion timelines, so has ~50% chance to be cleared on Saturday. If active, expect return to pre-injury levels.
TBD. Lean towards playing. There’s limited data on this one, but we suspect that the wrist isn’t likely to limit his catching ability.
TBD. Lean towards playing. “Illness” can mean a number of different things, but that injury designation is associated with a high rate of playing and low performance impact.
TBD. Those burns looked brutal, but the fact that he played last week suggests that he’s headed for the same outcome this week.
TBD. Our data projects 60% chance of playing Wk 6. Mild efficiency impact is expected, but the bigger concern – especially given Waller’s extensive soft tissue injury history – is re-injury risk, which unfortunately will be high for the next 4 weeks.
TBD. Trending towards playing, with data projecting a 2/3 chance. Rib injuries do cause moderate production hits for WRs of his profile.
Out Week 6, but ~3/4 of players would make it back in time for Week 7. With Khalil Herbert likely out 3-4 weeks, data favors Johnson returning immediately to his full workload.
And that’s a wrap for now. If we missed anyone, feel free to drop your questions on Twitter/X and we’ll hit the FAQ shortly!
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