Derek Brown | Thu, Oct 26th 2023, 8:56am EDT

The Primer: Week 8 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers

SF -5, O/U 43.5
Bengals vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Bengals lead the weekly meeting for slow-and-throw offenses. They provide free coffee and donuts every Sunday. They have the tenth-slowest neutral pace while also boasting the second-highest neutral passing rate.
The pace of this game will crawl. San Francisco has the third-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Burrow has been on the rebound. In his last two starts, he has finished as the QB8 and QB14 in fantasy, and while that might not sound amazing, it is progress. Since Week 5, he ranks 14th in passing grade and ninth in adjusted completion rate, with this time to throw increasing from 2.29 (Weeks 1-4) to 2.48. The 49ers pass defense has been among the best in the league, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game, the second-lowest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest passer rating to quarterbacks. There’s an avenue for Burrow to crush San Francisco this week if he can get his deep ball on track, though. Since Week 5, he has completed only one of six deep attempts, so I know there’s a leap of faith here, but since Week 4, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passer rating, and the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate to deep passes. This comes down to one question. Can the Bengals’ offensive line buy enough time for him against a defensive front that is seventh in pressure rate? Cincinnati has kept Burrow clean with the eighth-lowest pressure rate faced. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1

Brock Purdy: Purdy has cleared concussion protocol and will start in Week 8. Purdy is the QB12 in fantasy, ranking second in yards per attempt and passer rating. Purdy is also third in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy will have a tough time this week against a secondary that has given up the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game, seventh-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate to quarterbacks. Week 8 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon has been a volume play all year. He is the RB27 in fantasy, ranking seventh in snap share, first in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.7 touches and 78.3 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 49th in explosive run rate, 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Those are efficiency numbers that will make your eyes bleed. Mixon could enjoy one of his best games of the season this week, though, against a 49ers’ run defense that has more name cache than production. They have the seventh-lowest stuff rate while allowed the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt and yards per carry to zone runs (Mixon 53.1% zone). Week 8 Positional Value: RB1

Christian McCaffrey: Despite dealing with the oblique injury, McCaffrey played 100% of the snaps last week with 18 touches and 96 total yards. He is the RB2 in fantasy, averaging 21.6 touches and 118 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 22nd in explosive run rate and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. This week is a perfect opportunity for the 49ers to feed McCaffrey against a pushover run defense. The Bengals have allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. McCaffrey should scorch this run defense. Week 8 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase has rebounded as the WR8 in fantasy. Among 105 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks second in target share (30.9%), eighth in air-yard share (43.1%), 23rd in YPRR (2.29), and fifth in first-read share (39.8%). The 49ers utilize zone coverage on 75.3% of their defensive snaps (11th-highest rate). Against zone, Chase’s target share balloons to 32.0%, his air-yard share bumps to 47.5%, his YPRR increases to 2.55, and his first-read share climbs to 42.1%. Chase also leads Cincinnati with seven deep targets, so if Burrow launches it this week, he’ll be targeting Chase. Chase will run about 74% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (61.9% catch rate and 73.5 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (66% catch rate and 71.5 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR1

Tee Higgins: Higgins has been practicing in full all week and hasn’t been included in the injury report. In his last game, he was merely a decoy. He only logged a 59% route run rate and 11.4% target share, but I’m hoping this week we see Higgins closer to full health. In the three games that he has played a full-time role, he had a 22.1% target share, a 43% air-yard share, and a 28.4$ first-read share. He only produced 0.99 YPRR. In those three games, Higgins was the deep threat, leading the team with five deep targets (Chase three). Chase or Higgins will eat this secondary alive on the deep ball this week. Maybe both if we are lucky. Higgins will run about 85% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (61.9% catch rate and 73.5 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (66% catch rate and 71.5 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tyler Boyd: Boyd is the WR53 in fantasy, drawing a 16.7% target share, a 15.4% air-yard share, and a 19.9% first-read share. Boyd has surpassed 40 receiving yards only once this season while seeing three red zone targets. This is a surprisingly good matchup for Boyd, though. Since Week 4, the 49ers have allowed the 12th-highest PPR points per target and the 11th-highest passer rating to slot receivers. Boyd will run about 90% of his routes against Isaiah Oliver, who, since Week 4, has given up a 94% catch rate and 121.6 passer rating in his coverage. Week 8 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk is the WR17 in fantasy, commanding a 27.4% target share, a 46.9% air-yard share, 3.62 YPRR, and a 31.9% air-yard share. Aiyuk is 19th in deep targets among wideouts while also leading the NFL in open score. The Bengals have been incredibly tough on perimeter wide receivers, giving up the eighth-lowest PPR points per target and zero receiving touchdowns. Aiyuk will run about 80% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (53.1% catch rate and 69.8 passer rating) and D.J. Turner (33.3% catch rate and 42.4 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: Volume-based WR2/3

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle is the TE8 in fantasy, ranking third in deep targets and 16th in red zone targets. He has commanded a 16.0% target share (tenth), a 19.2% air-yard share (sixth), and a 17.4% first-read share (11th) while producing 1.78 YPRR (seventh). With Deebo Samuel injured and Brandon Aiyuk dealing with the Bengals’ talented corners, the 49ers could lean on McCaffrey and Kittle this week. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Week 8 Positional Value: TE1

Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals

BAL -9.5, O/U 44.5
Ravens vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

Baltimore has slowed and now has the eighth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.
Arizona ranks 12th in neutral pace while boasting the tenth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Jackson is the QB5 in fantasy. HIs rushing equity remains outstanding as he ranks second in carries per game (9.9), second in red zone carries per game (2.6), first in rushing yards per game (51.9), and second in rushing touchdowns (five). He is excelling as a passer this season which has been beautiful to watch. Jackson is second in passing grade, third in yards per attempt, fifth in big-time throw rate, and sixth in adjusted completion rate. He ripped Detroit apart last week and is primed to do the same to Arizona in Week 8. The Cardinals have allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate. They are also dreadful against deep passing with the highest deep passer rating and the second-most deep passing yards allowed. Jackson will dominate again this week. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1 overall

Joshua Dobbs: Kyler Murray’s debut will have to wait. He has been listed as doubtful, so it looks like Joshua Dobbs will remain the starter for now. Dobbs is the QB20 in fantasy, ranking 31st in yards per attempt, 19th in fantasy points per dropback, and QB16 in expected fantasy points. Dobbs should remain on your bench this week against a defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game, yards per attempt, and the lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Week 8 Positional Value: Low-end QB2

Running Backs

Gus Edwards: Edwards is the RB34 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 2, he has averaged 13.7 touches and 67.8 total yards. He has taken back control of the red zone work over the last two weeks with seven red zone carries versus Justice Hill‘s three. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. He has a plus matchup incoming against Arizona, who has the third-lowest stuff rate while allowing the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Arizona has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Week 8 Positional Value: RB2/3

Justice Hill: Hill has played at least 50% of the snaps in two of the last three games, but it hasn’t amounted to much volume. Over his last three games, he has averaged nine touches and 42.7 total yards. Hill has been explosive when given the ball. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in explosive run rate and 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt. He has almost half of his runs on zone scheme plays, ripping off 6.2 yards per carry. The Cardinals have allowed the tenth-highest yards per carry (4.57) and the seventh-highest success rate to zone runs. If Hill breaks one long run for a touchdown, he could be a beautiful flex play this week. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3/4 with upside

Emari Demercado: Last week, Demercado received the type of workload I was projecting for Week 6. Why did Arizona take a week to give him the bulk of the work? I have no clue, but when you can give Damien Williams a second life in the NFL, you have to, right? Last week, Demercado played 80% of the snaps with 17 touches and 75 total yards to finish as the RB21. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 34th in explosive run rate and 37th in yards after contact per attempt. The Ravens might have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, but you can run on this defense. Baltimore has allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate and missed tackles per attempt while also ranking 19th in yards per carry to gap runs (Demercado 55.2% gap). Baltimore has also given up the seventh-most receiving yards and the ninth-highest yards per reception to backs. Demercado could post RB2 numbers this week behind an offensive line that leads the NFL in yards before contact per attempt (excluding QB scrambles). Week 8 Positional Value: RB2/3

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers: What Flowers has done as a rookie has been impressive. The kid deserves major kudos. He is the WR30 in fantasy and is on pace for 95 receptions and 1,073 receiving yards. Flowers has a 26.9% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, 1.95 YPRR, and a 30.4% first-read share. He has been incredibly consistent, but he has yet to enjoy a blowup game. He has at least 50 receiving yards in every game except for one, but he hasn’t eclipsed 78 receiving yards in any game. Flowers will go off this week. Arizona has allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers. Flowers has the high cholesterol usage that we crave as he’s tenth in deep targets (leads the team in deep targets) and 17th in red zone targets. The Cardinals have the 12th-highest zone coverage rate. Flowers’ air-yard share increases to 34.1% against zone, his YPRR jumps to 2.21, and his first-read share is 33.3%. Flowers will run about 70% of his routes against Starling Thomas (87.5% catch rate and 140.1 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (79.6% catch rate and 132.3 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR1/2

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. had a 68.4% route run rate last week with a 33.3% target share and a 37.5% air-yard share. He led the team with a 33.3% first-read share while posting a stellar 3.77 YPRR. Beckham Jr. is also set up to smash this week. He has seen a red zone target in each of his last four games played, but he’s still searching for his first touchdown of the season. He has also seen two deep targets (tied for third on the team) since his Week 5 return. Beckham will run about 93% of his routes against Starling Thomas (87.5% catch rate and 140.1 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (79.6% catch rate and 132.3 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR3 upside

Marquise Brown: Brown is the WR28 in fantasy with a 25.2% target share, a 42.0% air-yard share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 31.5% first-read share. He is sixth in deep targets and 20th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Brown will run about 82% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (70% catch rate and 122.9 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (63.6% catch rate and 74.5 passer rating). I’d love to lean into the revenge game narrative here, but Baltimore likely squashes him this week. The Ravens have allowed the lowest PPR points per target and the 12th-lowest receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers this season. Week 8 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Andrews is the TE2 in fantasy, ranking third in red zone targets and 11th in deep targets. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, he is second in target share (21.8%), fourth in air-yard share (21.2%), sixth in YPRR (1.98), and fifth in first-read share (21.8%). Wide receivers have feasted against this defense, so it has left little left over for tight ends. Andrews is the WR1/2 of this offense, and I won’t count him out from having a strong day against this defense. Arizona has allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 8 Positional Value: TE1

Trey McBride: McBride has been stuck in a part-time role this season, sharing routes and snaps with Zach Ertz, but that changes this week with Ertz out. McBride has only seen an 8.7% target share and a 6.7% air-yard share, which aren’t indicative of his talent level. There are better barometers for his actual skill level. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fourth in TPRR (25%) and third in YPRR (2.10). Those more accurately reflect his skill. Unfortunately, the matchup this week is terrible for McBride. Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest receiving yards and the third-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 8 Positional Value: TE2

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -9, O/U 46.5
Bears vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

There are no surprises here, as Chicago has the second-slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
Los Angeles remains fast and pass-heavy, but they have cooled a small bit. They are sixth and 11th in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tyson Bagent: Bagent performed well in his first NFL start. Last week, among 26 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 15th in passing grade and second in adjusted completion rate as he managed the game. He only mustered 5.6 yards per attempt with zero big-time throws, so let’s be real about his performance. Bagent finished as the QB21 for the week. I don’t expect the Bears to let him rip it in his second NFL start, but he can produce solid QB2 numbers again this week in a wonderful matchup. The Chargers have allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing yards per game, and the second-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2

Justin Herbert: Herbert is the QB4 in fantasy points per game. He ranks 12th in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and 13th in big-time throw rate. Prior to last week’s QB22 finish, he had been a top-12 fantasy quarterback every week (QB6, QB11, QB1, QB5, QB5). Look for Herbert to get back on track this week, but Chicago hasn’t been the pushover in recent weeks that their full-season stats might imply. Since Week 5, they have held passers to the third-lowest yards per attempt and the 14th-lowest passer rating while giving up the 14th-highest adjusted completion rate. In those three games, Chicago is tied for the third-most interceptions forced. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Roschon Johnson: Johnson has practiced in full all week. He should be back this week. In a game I expect the Bears to trail in, I expect him to lead this backfield in snaps. What that number will be, we shall see. In Weeks 1-3, he played 39-45% of the snaps, averaging nine touches and 48.7 total yards. His per-carry efficiency has been lacking so far, but it’s only a 25-carry sample, so take from that what you will. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 32nd in explosive run rate, 52nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 42nd in yards after the contact per attempt. The Chargers have been a tough defense to run against. Everyone needs to wrap their heads around that because I still hear this run defense discussed as a matchup to target. It is definitely not. Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the 12th-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Where backs have padded their stats is through the air against this defense. The Chargers have allowed the third-most receiving yards and yards per reception to running backs. Johnson is an RB3 with RB2 upside in PPR formats. His stat line could look eerily similar to a Rachaad White stat line this week. Bagent had a 10.3% check-down rate last week. Among 33 quarterbacks this season with at least 100 dropbacks, that would qualify as the 11th-highest rate (tied with Joe Burrow). Week 8 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

D’Onta Foreman: Foreman should be the early down component of this committee. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Foreman likely won’t be a key cog in the passing game, which is worrisome because he could get game scripted out of this contest early. With Foreman likely deriving his value from early downs, this is a terrible matchup for him. Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles per attempt, and the 12th-lowest yards before contact per attempt. They are 15th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Foreman 58.3% zone), so at least there’s that small ray of hope. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3

Austin Ekeler: Since his return from injury, Ekeler has been disappointing with RB25 and RB38 finishes. He has played 63-68% of snaps, averaging 16.5 touches and 54 total yards. Since Week 6, he hasn’t recorded an explosive run or forced a missed tackle. Among 32 qualifying backs in that span, he ranks 27th in yards after contact per attempt. His prospects against Chicago don’t look much better. The Bears run defense has been performing well. They have kept backs in check with the third-lowest explosive run rate and the fourth-highest stuff rate. Chicago has permitted the ninth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Ekeler 60.7% zone). It’s possible that he could pad his fantasy stats through the air against a defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and the highest yards per reception to running backs. Week 8 Positional Value: RB1/2

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: Last week with Bagent under center, Moore still saw a 31.0% target share, a 58.7% air-yard share, and a 42.1% first-read share as he churned out 2.00 YPRR. He finished as the WR21 for the week. Moore should continue to get fed with Bagent. Moore ranks fifth in deep targets and 29th in red zone targets among wide receivers. He is the WR10 in fantasy. Moore will run about 84% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (70% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating) and Michael Davis (68.1% catch rate and 126.6 passer rating). The Chargers have allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2

Darnell Mooney: Last week with Bagent, Mooney handled a 13.8% target share and a 38.1% air-yard share. He had 1.33 YPRR with a 21.1% first-read share. Since Week 2, Mooney has finished as a WR4 or better only once (WR45). Mooney has only one red zone target since Week 2. He will run about 69% of his routes against Ja’Sir Taylor (62.1% catch rate and 89.7 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR5

Keenan Allen: Allen hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down this season as the WR3 in fantasy. Without Mike Williams, he has seen a 26.4% target share, 32.5% air-yard share, and a 37.3% first read share while producing 1.64 YPRR. Allen is 27th in deep targets and eighth in red zone looks among wideouts. Allen will run about 64% of his routes against Kyler Gordon (80% catch rate and 96.7 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR1

Josh Palmer: Respect where respect is due. I was wrong about Palmer. Without Williams, Palmer has been a dude. He has been balling. Since Week 4, he has had a 23.1% target share, a 36.1% air yard share, and a 23.7% first-read share, churning out 2.67 YPRR. He has weekly finishes of WR35, WR38, and WR10. Across his last three games, he has two red zone targets. Palmer will run about 71% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (43.5% catch rate and 22.2 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (66.7% catch rate and 123.1 passer rating). Palmer didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday (knee), but he returned to a limited practice on Friday and has been listed as questionable. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2/3

Quentin Johnston: Without Mike Williams, Johnston only has a 58% route run rate and a 7.7% target share. His aDOT is 22.1, as the team has him running clearouts all day long for Allen and Palmer. Johnston is a low-end stash, but if you need the bench space, he is droppable. Week 8 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE10 in fantasy, ranking 11th in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. He has a 16.8% target share (12th) and a 14.2% air-yard share (11th). With Bagent under center, he failed to draw a target. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the fifth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Even with the favorable matchup, with Bagent under center and the passing attack being neutered into game manage mode, Kmet is nothing more than a TE2. Week 8 Positional Value: TE2

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions

DET -8, O/U 46
Raiders vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Lions have the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the 14th-highest neutral rushing rate.
Las Vegas ranks 13th and 17th in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo is the QB24 in fantasy, ranking 15th in yards per attempt, 17th in fantasy points per dropback, and QB25 in expected fantasy points per game. Garoppolo should be able to produce another QB2-worthy fantasy line again this week. Detroit is 17th in yards per attempt, 18th in passer rating, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate allowed. The Lions utilize zone coverage on 71.7% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Garoppolo is 27th in fantasy points per dropback. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2

Jared Goff: Goff is the QB10 in fantasy. He has finished as a top-ten fantasy option in three of seven games (QB4, QB4, QB6). he is fifth in passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate. Goff can carve up a secondary that has given up the 12th-highest passer rating, sixth-highest adjusted completion rate, and the 13th-most passing touchdowns (tied). Week 8 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has been a nasty volume RB2 this season (RB19). He is fifth in snap share, third in opportunity share, first in weighted opportunity, and fourth in red zone touches. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 45th in explosive run rate, 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 56th in yards after contact per attempt. The offensive line has played poorly, but we also have to come to terms with the fact that last season’s volume could have also taken a toll on him. He has averaged 20.6 touches and 80.3 total yards. Jacobs hasn’t rushed for more than 77 yards in any game this season. Jacobs will run into brick walls all day against this stout Detroit front. The Lions have allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Week 8 Positional Value: Volume RB2

David Montgomery: Montgomery has been ruled out (ribs).

Jahmyr Gibbs: Last week, Gibbs was a bellcow. He played 87% of the snaps with 20 touches and 126 total yards to finish as the RB3 for the week. His stat line looked like a vintage Alvin Kamara box score. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is seventh in explosive run rate and 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Las Vegas won’t be able to stop him this week. The Raiders have the fifth-lowest stuff rate while giving up the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt and the tenth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Gibbs 72% gap). Week 8 Positional Value: Top-5 RB

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Adams has dipped to the WR16 in fantasy with three stinker weeks in a row. Since Week 5, he has finished as the WR45, WR69, and the WR24 in fantasy. Last week, he saw 12 targets, but with the lackluster quarterback play of Brian Hoyer, he could only muster 57 scoreless receiving yards. Adams has a 29.5% target share, a 39.8% air-yard share, 2.31 YPRR, and a 40.9% first-read share. Adams leads all wide receivers in red zone targets. He will run about 82% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (62.9% catch rate and 97.3 passer rating) and Will Harris (81.3% catch rate and 83.1 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: Borderline WR1

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has a 25.8% target share, a 36.2% air-yard share, 1.92 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share as the WR12 in fantasy. Meyers ranks fourth among wide receivers in red zone targets. Across his last three games, he has five targets inside the 20-yard line. Meyers will run about 75% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (62.9% catch rate and 97.3 passer rating) and Will Harris (81.3% catch rate and 83.1 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR2/3

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR9 in fantasy. He has been on another level since returning from injury. Over the last two games, he has averaged 17 targets, 12.5 receptions, and 113 receiving yards. St. Brown has at least one red zone target in five of six games played this season. St. Brown has a 29.4% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, 2.59 YPRR, and a 38.2% first-read share. The Raiders have been tough against slot receivers, giving up the fourth-fewest receiving yards and 14th-lowest PPR points per target. St. Brown will run about 52% of his routes against Amik Robertson (68.4% catch rate and 94.6 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR1

DET WRs: Last week, only Amon-Ra St. Brown had over a 70% route run rate. The Lions moved back toward a committee wide receiver approach behind St. Brown. If that’s the case, St. Brown is the only consistent wide receiver on this roster we can depend on.

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: Over the last two weeks, Mayer has been a full-time player. Last week’s blowout made his route run rate noisy, but he played 92% of the snaps before they put in backups. Since Week 6, he has had a 13.0% target share, a 13.4% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 10.3% first-read share. Mayer has a wondrous matchup this week. Detroit has been crushed by tight ends this season. They have allowed the third-most receiving yards, the most fantasy points, and the second-most receiving touchdowns to the position. Week 8 Positional Value: Low-end TE1

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame is the TE4 in fantasy, ranking fourth in receptions, receiving yards, and unrealized air yards. He is also 11th in deep targets among tight ends. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, Ballgame is sixth in target share (19.1%), fifth in air-yard share (21.2%), fifth in YPRR (1.98), and eighth in first-read share (19.5%). The Raiders are a neutral matchup for tight ends, ranking 17th in receiving yards and fantasy points allowed. Week 8 Positional Value: TE1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills

BUF -8.5, O/U 42.5
Buccaneers vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Buccaneers understand where their bread is buttered. The rushing attack has been near zero all season. Tampa Bay is now ninth and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate as they continue to lean into the air attack.
Buffalo has begun to pick the pace back up. Over their last three games, they are eighth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
The Buccaneers are first in red zone passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has been a serviceable QB2 this season. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 24th in yards per attempt, 16th in passer rating, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. We could see Mayfield post a surprisingly good stat line this week against a downgraded Bills’ pass defense. Since losing Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, the Bills have operated in zone coverage on 74% of their snaps while allowing the fifth-highest passer rating and adjusted completion rate while ranking 14th in yards per attempt. Mayfield can take advantage of this secondary. Mayfield’s biggest concern is not the backend of Buffalo but their pass rush, which ranks second in pressure rate. Mayfield has been quite good against pressure this season, though ranking seventh in pressured passing grade, fourth in pressured yards per attempt, and second in passer rating. Mayfield could sneak into the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks this week. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Josh Allen: Allen has regained his crown as the QB1 in fantasy points per game. He is third in passing grade, sixth (tied) in yards per attempt, and third-best in fantasy points per dropback. Allen should shred the Buccaneers’ middle-of-the-road pass defense this week. Tampa Bay ranks 16th in adjusted completion rate and 19th in passer rating while allowing the 11th-highest yards per attempt. They have specifically struggled to stop quarterbacks when they throw deep, giving up the 12th-highest passer rating, ninth-highest yards per attempt, and ninth-highest adjusted completion rate to deep balls. The Buccaneers continue to rely on the fifth-highest rate of zone coverage (80.5%, per Fantasy Points Data) in the NFL. Allen has had no problems against zone, ranking sixth in fantasy points per dropback, but he does tend to spread the ball around as he is 26th in rate of throwing to his first read. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White has been a consistent (uninspiring) volume play this season with at least 70% of the snaps weekly while averaging 17.5 touches and 71.5 total yards. White still has zero explosive runs this season. That’s not good, Bob. Not at all. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. The good thing for White is Buffalo’s run defense has been the weakest point of their defense all season. The Bills have given up the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-highest yards per carry to zone runs (White 53% zone). Week 8 Positional Value: RB2

James Cook: After a few quiet games, Cook had a noice Week 7 with 16 touches and 102 total yards (one touchdown). His role didn’t change a ton, as he played 52% of the snaps. He has averaged 15 touches and 86.5 total yards this season. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 27th in explosive run rate, 34th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Cook faces a resurgent Tampa Bay run defense that has kept backs in check. They have surrendered the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 11th-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Cook 59.1% gap). Cook needs another touchdown to likely pay off this week. Week 8 Positional Value: low-end RB2/RB3

Latavius Murray: Murray is an early down grinder with only one game this season with double-digit touches. He has eclipsed 35 rushing yards only once this season and likely won’t make it two games against Tampa Bay’s stout run defense this week. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 39th in explosive run rate and dead last in missed tackles forced per attempt. Sit Murray. Week 8 Positional Value: Must sit

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans continues to crush. I faded him in draft season and now regret doing so immensely. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 23rd in target share (22.9%), 16th in air-yard share (37.8%), and tenth in yards per route run (2.80). He is also 24th in first-read share (28.4%). Evans is second on the Bucs in red zone targets. He should lead the passing attack against the Bills zone coverage. Against zone, his target share has increased to 23.9% as his air-yard share has bumped to 41%, and his yards per route run (YPRR) balloons to an insane 3.22. Evans will run about 72% of his routes against Christian Benford (72.7% catch rate and 100.9 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (80% catch rate and 118.9 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: Borderline WR1

Chris Godwin: Godwin’s luck this season has to turn around. He leads the team with a 23.4% target share and a 20.6% first-read share while posting a strong 2.19 YPRR. Godwin even leads the team with nine red zone targets, but he has still yet to score a touchdown this season. Against zone, he has taken a backseat to Evans as he has seen a 20.9% target share and 26.7% first read share. Godwin will run about 65% of his routes against Christian Benford (72.7% catch rate and 100.9 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (80% catch rate and 118.9 passer rating). I would not be surprised to watch Godwin enjoy a massive positive regression game in an island contest. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR4 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in target share (30.9%), seventh in air-yard share (44.9%), and 12th in YPRR (2.73). Diggs ranks fourth in first-read share (41.3%) as one of only four wide receivers with above a 40% first-read share (Garrett Wilson, Diggs, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams). If Allen attacks this secondary deep, Diggs will be a central cog as he ranks second on the team in deep targets behind only Gabriel Davis. Diggs will run about 62% of his routes against Carlton Davis (87.5% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (76.9% catch rate and 129.2 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR1

Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR31 in fantasy as the Bills deep threat. He has a 13.9% target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, and 1.62 YPRR. Davis leads the team in deep targets, so if Allen is trying to torch this secondary deep (he will), then Davis should be his go-to. Against zone, Davis has seen his YPRR increase to 1.99 and his first-read share climb from 13.8% to 15.2%. Davis will run about 81% of his routes against Carlton Davis (87.5% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (76.9% catch rate and 129.2 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Feel free to sit Otton this week. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 24th in target share (11.2%) and 31st in YPRR (0.82). The Bills have done a good job of limiting tight ends, and Otton is a matchup-based streaming option. Buffalo has held tight ends to the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game. Week 8 Positional Value: TE2

Dalton Kincaid: On the surface, Kincaid’s numbers don’t offer a ton of intrigue. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 29th in route run rate, 27th in target share (10.6%), and 20th in YPRR (1.27), but the boom is coming. Dawson Know is now sidelined with a wrist injury, which means Kinciad should get a big bump in snaps and routes moving forward. Last week, the Bills finally decided to feature the talented rookie. He ranked seventh in target share (19.5%), fifth in YPRR (2.68), and seventh in first-read share (20.8%). This was a massive departure from his 8.8% target share and 11.4% first-read share in Weeks 1-6. The matchup this week is brutal for Kincaid. Tampa Bay has smothered tight ends to the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game. Volume will have to be his ally in Week, but he likely finds himself as the third option behind Diggs and Davis this week. Week 8 Positional Value: low-end TE1

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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.

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The Primer: Week 8 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

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