Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

• MIN -1, O/U 41.5
• Vikings vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Minnesota is a pace and passing rate wonderland, ranking second in neutral pace while leading the NFL in passing rate.
• The Packers will attempt to gum up the works with their slow and run-heavy offense. They have the ninth-slowest pace while operating with the 13th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: Cousins is the QB7 in fantasy, ranking fourth in passer rating, first in passing touchdowns, and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. Cousins faces a Packers pass defense that has low-key flaws but has managed to keep quarterbacks held to the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate, passing yards per game, and fantasy points per game. The Packers’ secondary has been aided by their pass rush, which is 11th in pressure rate and sixth in blitz rate. Cousins has faced the seventh-highest pressure rate this season, so it’s a stretch to think the Vikings offensive line can consistently buy him time. Cousins has navigated muddy pockets well all year, ranking fifth in pressured passing grade, third in pressured yards per attempt, and leading the NFL in pressured passing touchdowns. If he can continue to pull a rabbit out of his dad hat, Cousins can shred this secondary deep. Green Bay has allowed the second-highest deep passer rating and deep-adjusted completion rate. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1

Jordan Love: Love has struggled mightily this season. He has the tenth-lowest passing grade, the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, and the lowest adjusted completion rate. His recent fantasy finishes of QB13 and QB24 are beginning to reflect his real-life play level. While the season-long stats make this look like a smash matchup for Love, it isn’t. Since Week 4, the Vikings defense has been playing better football. They have fielded an average pass defense ranking 15th in passer rating and 17th in yards per attempt while also holding passers to the 11th-lowest passing yards per game and seventh-fewest passing touchdowns. Over their last four games, Minnesota also ranks tenth in pressure rate while they still lead the NFL over the entire season in blitz rate. Love has the second-lowest adjusted completion rate and the 14th-lowest yards per attempt against the blitz. Love is a QB2. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison: Mattison’s standing in this backfield is on shaky ground. He has played 51-53% of the snaps in two of his last three games, averaging ten touches and 44 total yards as Cam Akers has eaten into his workload. Among 59 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 35th in explosive run rate and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. Mattison has received every running back rushing attempt inside the red zone over the last three weeks, but Minnesota leads the NFL in red zone passing rate, so his touchdown equity on the ground is nerfed anyway. The matchup is fantastic this week, so I’m not ruling out Mattison breaking off a chunk run or two in this game. Green Bay has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

Cam Akers: Akers saw his largest workload with Minnesota last week, playing 39% of the snaps with 12 touches and 61 total yards. Since becoming a Viking (among 48 qualifying backs), he ranks 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. It would not shock me if Akers leads this backfield in touches this week against a burnable Packers run defense. Minnesota trusted Akers to salt away the clock last week, which is all I needed to see. Green Bay has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3/4 with RB2 upside

Aaron Jones: Jones didn’t practice on Wednesday (hamstring), but he returned to limited practices for the remainder of the week. Since Jones returned in Week 4, he has played 35-36% of the snaps, averaging 8.5 touches and 35.5 total yards. He has posted modest tackle-breaking metrics with zero explosive runs and a 15% missed tackles forced per attempt rate. With his limited volume and snap share, he will have to bank on efficiency as his ally, and I don’t see that happening this week. The Vikings have limited backs to the second-lowest explosive run rate, the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game. Jones is on the RB2/3 borderline, and if he is a flex play for you at this point, I would be looking for other options for Week 8. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3

A.J. Dillon: Dillon will lead the backfield in snaps against his week. In the last two games, Jones has been active with Dillon; he has played 56% and 67% of the snaps, averaging 11 touches and 53 total yards. Dillon’s lack of explosiveness has continued this season as he ranks 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. He will encounter a tough opponent this week in the Viking’s run defense. They have allowed the sixth-lowest yards per carry and the tenth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Volume will be on his side, but it’s questionable how much he does with it. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Jordan Addison: Over the last two weeks without Justin Jefferson, Addison has seen a 19.7% target share, a 29.2% air-yard share, and a 27.1% first-read share (leads the team) while churning out 2.60 YPRR. Addison has also seen three of Cousin’s four deep targets. He has finished as the WR32 and WR1 in weekly scoring while seeing four red zone targets. Addison will run about 75% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (64.3% catch rate and 104.9 passer rating) and Jaire Alexander (77.8% catch rate and 155.8 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR2

K.J. Osborn: Without Jefferson in the lineup, Osborn has a 14.5% target share, a 24% air-yard share, and a 16.7% first-read share. He has managed 1.53 YPRR with zero red zone targets. He has finished as the WR44 and WR40 in weekly scoring. There’s no overwhelming reason to fall in love with Osborn as a flex play this week. Osborn will run about 60% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (64.3% catch rate and 104.9 passer rating) and Jaire Alexander (77.8% catch rate and 155.8 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR4/5

Christian Watson: Watson is practicing in full, so the injury scare last week seems to be a false alarm. In the two games Watson has played this season as a full-time player, he has commanded a 19.4% target share, a 44.8% air-yard share, and a 20.9% first-read share (tied for first) with 2.51 YPRR. Over that short span, Watson leads the team with four deep targets, which account for 33.3% of his target volume. Watson will run about 70% of his routes against Byron Murphy (since Week 4: 72.2% catch rate and 109.5 passer rating) and Akyleb Evans (since Week 4: 76.9% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3

Romeo Doubs: With Watson back in the lineup, Doubs has a 14.5% target share, 22.7% air-yard share, 0.67 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share. None of these numbers scream that he is a must-play flex this week. Since Week 4, Minnesota has held perimeter wide receivers to the third-lowest PPR points per target. Week 8 Positional Value: Sit

Jayden Reed: Reed’s usage has been hit or miss this season. With Watson back in the lineup, the Packers only utilize three wide receiver sets on 52% of their plays, so Reed is a capped player based on playing time. He has only managed a 48% route run rate and a 9.7% target share with Watson back. He is a deep league flex play only because of how bad Minnesota has been against slot receivers recently. Since Week 4, Minnesota has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target. When Green Bay uses three-wide, Byron Murphy (since Week 4: 72.2% catch rate and 109.5 passer rating) slides into the slot, so Reed will see him in coverage when on the field. Week 8 Positional Value: Deep league flex

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson opened the week with a DNP (foot) before returning to practice on Thursday and upgrading to a full session on Friday. Over the last two games without Justin Jefferson, Hockens has a 26.5% target share, a 24.3% air-yard share, 2.43 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. His usage has been insane. The only problem has been his red zone looks. Yes, he is seventh among tight ends with six red zone targets, but he hasn’t seen a target inside the 20-yard line since Week 3. In his last meeting with Green Bay, he had 12 targets, securing seven with 59 scoreless receiving yards. The Packers have faced the eighth-fewest tight end targets but are tied for the 13th-highest yards per reception allowed to the position. Week 8 Positional Value: TE1

Matt LaFleur on Luke Musgrave, who did practice Friday in a limited capacity: pic.twitter.com/3VlZTNg24O

— Paul Bretl (@Paul_Bretl) October 27, 2023

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but he returned to a limited practice on Friday. He feels closer to doubtful than actually questionable which he is listed as on the injury report. Even if Musgrave plays, he’s a sit. Minnesota has been a tough draw for tight ends. They have smothered the position with the seventh-lowest receiving yards per game and fourth-lowest yards per reception allowed. Week 8 Positional Value: Sit

TB vs. BUF | PHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. PIT | NE vs. MIA | MIN vs. GB | NYJ vs. NYG | LAR vs. DAL | NO vs. IND | HOU vs. CAR | ATL vs. TEN | CLE vs. SEA | KC vs. DEN | CIN vs. SF | BAL vs. ARI | CHI vs. LAC | LV vs. DET

New York Jets vs. New York Giants

• NYJ -2.5, O/U 35.5
• Jets vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Over the last two weeks, the Giants have ranked fourth in neutral pace with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• This is another ugly but sneaky spot for play volume. The Jets are seventh in neutral pace while also sitting at 15th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: Wilson is the QB32 in fantasy and a must-sit in all formats. He has finished higher than QB21 only once this season. He is still looking for his first game with more than 250 passing yards and has not thrown for a passing touchdown in three of his last four starts. Week 8 Positional Value: Must sit

Tyrod Taylor: Taylor has played well in relief of Daniel Jones. With Jones out again, Taylor draws the start. Taylor ranks 13th in passing grade and 16th in yards per attempt and adjusted completion rate. Those numbers don’t do his passing justice, though. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he is second in highly accurate throw rate and sixth in hero throw rate, which is crazy. He has finished as the QB22 and QB7 in weekly scoring in his starts. The Jets are not a pushover, but they have regressed some in the pass defense department. They have kept quarterbacks in check with the sixth-lowest yards per attempt and ninth-lowest passer rating allowed. Still, they are also 15th in passing touchdowns and 16th in adjusted completion rate. Taylor can author a fine QB2 week. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Breece Hall: Since the Jets unleashed, Hall has played 52% and 66% of the snaps, averaging 21 touches and 143.5 total yards with RB3 and RB4 weekly finishes. Hall should shred the Giants’ flailing run defense in Week 8. New York has given up the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. The Jets will lean on one of the best backs in the NFL this week. Week 8 Positional Value: Top 5 RB

Saquon Barkley: Barkley took no time to reemerge as a bellcow back. Since his return, he has played at least 78% of the snaps weekly, averaging 26 touches and 108 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 15th in explosive run rate and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Barkley has also seen at least four targets in each game he has played. He gets a neutral matchup with the Jets this week. The Jets have allowed the 12th-highest explosive run rate while ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt and logging the 14th-lowest stuff rate. Barkley could break a big run or two this week as the Giants should look to feed him and avoid the Jets stout secondary. Week 8 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR23 in fantasy, which is a true testament to his talent to produce as a WR2 despite the quarterback play of Zach Wilson. He has been the only startable receiver in this offense and a fountain of high-leverage usage. He ranks ninth in deep targets and second in red zone targets among wideouts. Among 105 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks tenth in target share (28.4%), sixth in air-yard share (45.9%), 40th in YPRR (1.86), and first in first-read share (45.3%). The Giants utilize man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (39.5%). Against man, Wilson’s YPRR has increased to 2.27. Wilson will run about 72% of his routes against Adoree’ Jackson (75% catch rate and 119.9 passer rating) and Deonte Banks (55.6% catch rate and 80.3 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jalin Hyatt: Over the last two games, Hyatt has a 68.8% route run rate, a 13.8% target share, a 44.5% air-yard share (25.2 aDOT), and a 19% first-read share. Hyatt has been the Giants’ deep threat. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing him. The Jets have been elite against deep passing this season allowing the fewest deep passing yards and the lowest deep adjusted completion rate. Week 8 Positional Value: Must sit

Wan’Dale Robinson: Since his return to a “full-time” role, Robinson has had a 59% route run rate, a 16.8% target share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 19.5% first-read share. The Jets have an elite pass defense at all levels. Sit Robinson this week. The Jets have allowed the fewest PPR points per target to opposing slot wide receivers. Week 8 Positional Value: Must sit

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Conklin is the TE20 in fantasy. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 19th in target share (13.1%), ninth in YPRR (1.72), and 26th in first-read share (11.3%). He has only two red zone targets this season. The Giants have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends, so Conklin makes the matchup-based streaming tier this week. Week 8 Positional Value: Matchup-based streaming option

Darren Waller: Waller the Baller has returned. Yes, I know it was rough sailing in the first few weeks of the season, but he’s the TE5 in fantasy now. Since Week 5, among 42 qualifying tight ends, he ranks second in target share (26.8%), second in air-yard share (30.1%), ninth in target per route run rate (26%), fourth in YPRR (2.29), and second in first-read share (34.8%). During that same stretch, he ranks seventh in fantasy points per route run. While the Jets have been an elite unit against wide receivers, they have been crushed by tight ends. The Jets have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards, the most receiving touchdowns, and the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. Week 8 Positional Value: Top 5 TE

TB vs. BUF | PHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. PIT | NE vs. MIA | MIN vs. GB | NYJ vs. NYG | LAR vs. DAL | NO vs. IND | HOU vs. CAR | ATL vs. TEN | CLE vs. SEA | KC vs. DEN | CIN vs. SF | BAL vs. ARI | CHI vs. LAC | LV vs. DET

Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -6, O/U 45.5
• Rams vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Los Angeles continues to roll out a slow-and-throw offense, ranking 26th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
• Mike McCarthy has decided to take a page out of the Kellen Moore playbook. Over their last three games, they have picked up the pace (14th in neutral pace) and turned into a pass-happy offense (sixth in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Stafford is the QB18 in fantasy despite ranking third in passing attempts and fourth in passing yards this season. The culprit is his 17th ranking in passing touchdowns. He has only one game this season with multiple passing scores. Despite the passing touchdown struggle, he continues to play at a high level. He is seventh in passing grade, third in big-time throw rate, and sixth in yards per attempt. Stafford faces a Dallas pass defense that hasn’t been the same without Trevon Diggs. Since Week 3, the Cowboys have given up the ninth-highest passer rating and yards per attempt while also permitting the eighth-most passing touchdowns (tied). They have been especially vulnerable in that span to deep passing, with the third-highest deep yards per attempt, the fifth-highest deep passer rating, and the tenth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Since Week 3, Dallas still has ranked 12th in pressure rate, so Stafford will have to hold up against that pass rush to chuck it downfield. Stafford is 14th in yards per attempt and sixth in big-time throw rate against pressure this season. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1

Dak Prescott: Since Week 4, Prescott has been playing much better. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 12th in passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, and 13th in big-time throw rate. He’s also been 13th in fantasy points per dropback over that stretch. The Rams have been a stingy pass defense, but there’s an avenue for Prescott to emerge with a strong outing and for this game to shoot out. Overall, the Rams have held passers to the 13th-lowest yards per attempt, the second-fewest passing touchdowns, and the third-lowest adjusted completion rate, but they have not faced stiff competition for parts of this season. Seattle and the 49ers both limited their passing games and stuck to running the ball. The Rams then faced a beaten-up Joe Burrow, Anthony Richardson, and Josh Dobbs. In that stretch, they did allow 7.9 yards per attempt and 303 passing yards to Jalen Hurts. Last week, Kenny Pickett dropped 9.2 yards per attempt while completing 68% of his passes. This defense has played above their heads this season. Prescott can post QB1 numbers this week. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Darrell Henderson: Henderson jumped right back into the rotation last week like he never left, playing 57% of the snaps with 19 touches and 66 total yards to finish the week as the Rb17. Henderson was impressive last week. Among 74 running backs with at least 18 carries, he is 14th in explosive run rate and 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Those numbers will play, no doubt. While Dallas has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, all of their other metrics scream that this is a tough run defense. They have contained backs with the second-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and yards per carry to gap runs (Henderson 72% gap). Henderson’s snap rate could climb even higher this week, which puts him in the volume-based RB2 basket. Week 8 Positional Value: Low-end RB2

Royce Freeman: Freeman played 43% of the snaps last week with 12 carries and 66 rushing yards. In a tough matchup and with Henderson’s snaps possibly increasing this week, Freeman is a fine stash, but I won’t plug him into lineups in Week 8. His per-rush metrics were quite nice, though, which has to be mentioned here. Freeman posted an 8.3% explosive run rate, 33% missed tackle per attempt rate, and 4.0 yards after contact per attempt. Week 8 Positional Value: Stash

Tony Pollard: Pollard is the RB11 in fantasy as he gobbles up volume. He is ninth in snap share, 16th in opportunity share, fifth in weighted opportunities, and second in red zone touches. Pollard has the 11th-most carries and the eighth-most targets among running backs. The sad thing is that the explosive dynamo that we saw last year looks gone. Pollard doesn’t seem to have the same juice. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 30th in explosive run rate, 55th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. The health concerns were present during the offseason, but health hasn’t been an issue. This magician doesn’t seem to be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat anymore. The Rams are a neutral rushing matchup. They have the 14th-highest explosive run rate the eighth-highest missed tackles per attempt, but they also have the 11th-highest stuff rate and rank 17th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 8 Positional Value: Volume RB1

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: Since his return, Kupp has had a 30% target share, a 41.5% air-yard share, 3.31 YPRR, and a 37.5% first-read share. He’s been vintage Kupp besides last week’s bump in the road. Dallas has the second-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL (40.2%). Against man, Kupp has a 34.4% target share, a 39.4% air-yard share, 2.24 YPRR and a 41.7% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with Nacua in target share and first-read share against man since Week 5. Kupp will run about half of his routes against Jourdan Lewis (66.7% catch rate and 136.9 passer rating) in the slot. Dallas has allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target against slot receivers. Kupp has led the team in deep targets since his return with seven (Nacua four). Week 8 Positional Value: WR1

Puka Nacua: Since Kupp’s return, Nacua has led the team with a 33.3% target share and ranks second in air yard share (37.7%), YPRR (2.70), and first-read share (35.9%). In the same span, against man coverage, Nacua is tied with Kupp for the team lead with a 34.4% target share and 41.7% first-read share. He leads the team in that stretch with 4.46 YPRR against man. Nacua leads the team during these three games with two end zone targets against man coverage. He ranks second on the team in deep targets since Kupp’s return with four. Nacua will run about 60% of his routes on the perimeter against Stephon Gilmore (46.7% catch rate and 71.1 passer rating) and DaRon Bland (48.1% catch rate and 22.7 passer rating). Since losing Trevon Diggs, Dallas has surrendered the fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and only one receiving touchdown. Week 8 Positional Value: WR1/2

Tutu Atwell: Since Kupp’s return, Atwell has only an 8.9% target share, a 16.4% air-yard share, and 0.91 YPRR. Against Dallas’s tough perimeter corners this will likely be another empty box score week for Atwell. Week 8 Positional Value: Sit

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR21 in fantasy ranking 14th in open score immediately behind Ja’Marr Chase. Lamb has five red zone targets, but they have all come in the last four games. Lamb has a 21.5% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, 2.54 YPRR, and a 24.4% first-read share. The way to defeat the Rams’ secondary is via the slot which Lamb can do this week. Los Angeles has given up the second-most receiving yards and the seventh-most receptions to slot receivers. Lamb will run about 68% of his routes against Cobie Durant (65.5% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating). Among 36 qualifying slot corners, Durant has allowed the 13th-highest yards per snap. Week 8 Positional Value: WR1

Michael Gallup: Gallup has a 16.4% target share, a 25.3% air-yard share, 1.22 YPRR, and a 19.8% air-yard share. The Rams utilize zone coverage at the tenth-highest rate (76.3%). Against zone, Gallup’s target share has increased to 18.1%, his air-yard share has climbed to 28.8%, his YPRR has risen to 1.43, and this first-read rate bumped to 22.2%. Gallup will run about 61% of his routes against Derion Kendrick (51.9% catch rate and 88.0 passer rating. Week 8 Positional Value: WR4

Brandin Cooks: Cooks is the WR73 in fantasy with only three red zone targets (one in his last three games). The Rams utilize zone coverage at the tenth-highest rate (76.3%). Against zone, Cooks has had a 16.8% target share, a 27.9% air-yard share, 1.07 YPRR, and a 23.2% first-read share. He will run about half of his routes against Akhello Witherspoon (45.7% catch rate and 51.7 passer rating). Witherspoon has been playing extremely well. Sit Cooks. Week 8 Positional Value: Sit

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: With Kupp back in the lineup, Higbee has had an 11.8% target share (only six targets), 0.72 YPRR, and a 10.5% first-read share. He hasn’t finished higher than TE27 in fantasy. Week 8 Positional Value: Droppable

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is finally a full-time player in this offense, and it couldn’t come at a better time. In his last game played, he had an 82.1% route run rate, which is excellent. Among 28 qualifying tight ends, he ranks sixth in open rate, which is amazing (immediately behind George Kittle). Among 40 qualifying tight ends, Ferguson ranks 16th in target share (14.4%), 17th in YPRR, and 12th in first-read share. He leads all tight ends in red zone targets this season. The Rams have been a glorious matchup for tight ends all season, allowing the highest yards per reception, the sixth-most receiving yards, and the fifth-most fantasy points. Week 8 Positional Value: TE1

TB vs. BUF | PHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. PIT | NE vs. MIA | MIN vs. GB | NYJ vs. NYG | LAR vs. DAL | NO vs. IND | HOU vs. CAR | ATL vs. TEN | CLE vs. SEA | KC vs. DEN | CIN vs. SF | BAL vs. ARI | CHI vs. LAC | LV vs. DET

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts

• NO -1.5, O/U 43.5
• Saints vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Saints continue to push the pace while leaning into their passing game. They sit third in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
• Over the last two weeks, the Colts have slowed to 20th in neutral pace while operating with the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr has stacked back-to-back QB1 outings (QB10, QB9). Since Week 6, he has averaged 52.5 passing attempts, 327 passing yards, and one passing touchdown. Carr’s efficiency metrics have been quite bad. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 23rd in passing grade, 28th in yards per attempt, and 30th in adjusted completion rate. What has propped him up is the wondrous volume as he is sixth in passing attempts and 14th in passing yards. Indy has been a middling pass defense, ranking 14th in passing yards per game, 16th in yards per attempt, and 21st in adjusted completion rate allowed. The Colts have the second-highest rate of zone coverage (83.0%). Against zone, Carr is 17th in adjusted completion rate and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Gardner Minshew: In Minshew’s three starts this season, he has finished as the QB23, QB18, and QB3 in fantasy. Yeah, he went nuts against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week. That wasn’t on my Week 7 bingo card. Kudos if you projected that one. The rollercoaster that is Minshew can easily be seen in his numbers. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks dead last in passing grade with the highest turnover-worthy play rate, but he is also tenth in yards per attempt and 15th in adjusted completion rate. Crazy enough, I’m projecting that Minshew struggles this week against an airtight Saints pass defense. New Orleans has held passers to the third-lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the lowest adjusted completion rate. If Minshew defies my logic again this week, I’ll have to start considering that he’s made a deal with the devil or that his mustache has magical powers. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been nothing short of a godsend for ailing fantasy rosters as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. He is seventh in opportunity share, 19th in weighted opportunities, and first among running backs in targets despite playing only four games. Kamara has averaged 26.1 touches and 109.6 total yards. Yes, you read that correctly. 26.1 touches per game. Kamara has two 14-target games this season. While the volume has been amazing, Kamara’s tackle-breaking ability was vaporized last season, and it’s degraded even more this season. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 39th in explosive run rate, 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 57th in yards after contact per attempt. Indy has been a tough team to run on, with the 12th-highest stuff rate and fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Look for the Saints to “run through the air” against Indy’s zone defense. Kamara leads all running backs with a 22.8% target share while also sitting at seventh in YPRR. Against zone coverage, his target share has been a mind-blowing 28.6%. That’s alpha wide receiver-type usage at the running back position. Week 8 Positional Value: RB1

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor’s workload continues to ramp up. He played 50% of the snaps last week, which doesn’t sound like a ton, but when he was out there, the idea was to get the ball in his hands. Taylor had 21 touches with 120 total yards last week while playing only 35 snaps. If he was on the field, the ball was likely going to Taylor. He also dominated the red zone work with all six red zone carries in Week 7. He finally displayed his usual explosiveness in Week 7, which we’ve been waiting for. Among 41 qualifying backs last week, he ranked 17th in explosive run rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Taylor takes on an improving Saints run defense that has surrendered the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the second-fewest fantasy points per game to backs, and the third-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Taylor 59.4% zone). Week 8 Positional Value: RB2

Zack Moss: Moss has averaged 16 touches and 60.5 total yards while playing 50% of the snaps in each of the last two games. His touchdown equity has been zapped with Taylor retaking his crown as the team’s red zone back last week. Among 59 qualified backs, Moss ranks 28th in explosive run rate, 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Moss will be bottled up this week against a defense that allowed the fifth-lowest touchdown rate, the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and the fifth-lowest success rate to zone runs (Moss 77.2% zone). Moss is banged up (elbow/heel). He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Friday and has been listed as questionable. If he is out, Taylor will be a bell cow. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave has been massively underperforming as he and Carr are trying to get on the same page. Among 105 qualifying wide receivers, he is 21st in target share (24.4%), 14th in air-yard share (39.5%), and 17th in first-read share (32.0%), but he is only 44th in YPRR (1.75) and the WR25 in fantasy with the most unrealized air yards in the NFL. Better days are ahead for Olave. He leads all wide receivers in deep targets. Indy has the second-highest rate of zone coverage (83.0%). Against zone, Olave’s air-yard share has increased to 41.7%, and he leads the team with four end-zone targets. Olave will run about 58% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (44.4% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating) and Darrell Baker Jr. (61.5% catch rate and 121.0 passer rating). The Colts have toughened up against perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 4, they have allowed the tenth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wideouts. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2

Michael Thomas: Thomas is the WR45 in fantasy with two WR3 weeks on his resume this season. Thomas has an 18.9% target share, a 24.8% air-yard share, 1.46 YPRR, and a 24.0% first-read share. Against zone coverage, he has withered this season with a 13.8% target share, and his air-yard share has dipped to 18.4% (17.1% first-read share). The team has looked his way more against man coverage this season. Sit Thomas if you can against the zone-heavy Colts. He will run about 71% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (44.4% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating) and Darrell Baker Jr. (61.5% catch rate and 121.0 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR4/5

Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed has received a bump against zone coverage all season. He has a 12.4% target share but a 24.9% air-yard share and 1.89 YPRR against zone. He is tied for second on the team with two end zone targets against zone. His 0.37 fantasy points per route run against zone leads the wide receiver room. Shaheed will run about 52% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (44.4% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating) and Darrell Baker Jr. (61.5% catch rate and 121.0 passer rating). I don’t expect Carr to chuck it deep much this week against a secondary that has allowed the ninth-lowest passer rating and ranks 15th in adjusted completion rate against deep balls. That doesn’t mean Shaheed can’t take a shallow crosser to the house, though. Week 8 Positional Value: WR4 with WR3 upside

Michael Pittman man/zone splits (per Fantasy Points Data)

Josh Downs man/zone splits (per Fantasy Points Data)

Michael Pittman: The process was right last week with Pittman. He secured only two of his five targets against the Browns’ man-coverage-heavy secondary. The problem was he took one of those targets to the house for 75 yards. The Saints have the seventh-highest rate of man coverage (31.8%). Against man coverage, Pittman’s numbers drop across the board, and last week’s long touchdown is helping prop up his YPRR. Down’s has been the team’s go-to against man coverage, and I don’t see that changing this week, especially when factoring in corner matchups. Pittman will run about 71% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (54.3% catch rate and 65.4 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (57.1% catch rate and 66.0 passer rating). The Saints have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to opposing perimeter wide receivers. Keep your Pittman hopes in check this week. Week 8 Positional Value: WR3/4

Josh Downs: Downs leads the team in nearly every wide receiver usage category against man coverage. The Saints have the seventh-highest rate of man coverage this season. New Orleans has also given up the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing slot wide receivers. Downs should continue his hot streak this week. He is the WR34 in fantasy, ranking 12th in red zone targets with top-36 WR finishes in four of his last five games. Downs will run about 83% of his routes against Alontae Taylor (66.1% catch rate and 100.2 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill: Hill is questionable entering Week 8 with a chest injury. This injury pops up at a time when we should consider sitting him anyway. With Juwan Johnson back this week, Hill will return to his Swiss army knife role that’s better for real-life football than fantasy. In Weeks 3-5, he played 30-51% of the snaps, never eclipsing four rushing attempts or one target in the passing game. Week 8 Positional Value: Sit

TB vs. BUF | PHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. PIT | NE vs. MIA | MIN vs. GB | NYJ vs. NYG | LAR vs. DAL | NO vs. IND | HOU vs. CAR | ATL vs. TEN | CLE vs. SEA | KC vs. DEN | CIN vs. SF | BAL vs. ARI | CHI vs. LAC | LV vs. DET