Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

• BUF -8, O/U 40.5
• Bills vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• As bad as the Patriots have been, their pace and passing rate is still money. They are second and seventh in neutral pace and passing rate.
• Buffalo ranks 23rd in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Bills QB Josh Allen on if there will an impact from his shoulder injury: “No concern. We’ll be ready to go.”

— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) October 18, 2023

Josh Allen: Allen is dealing with a shoulder issue, but it doesn’t seem like it will sideline him. Allen is the QB2 in fantasy, ranking third in passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and third in adjusted completion rate. His last five games against the Foxborough hoodies have been all over the map, with two outings below 17 fantasy points and two games with 22.8 and 38.9 fantasy points. New England’s secondary ranks 20th in yards per attempt with the 13th-highest passer rating and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate allowed. The Patriots continue to operate in man coverage at the third-highest rate (36.3%) in the NFL. Against man, Allen is 11th in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, and fourth-best in adjusted completion rate. Allen will crush again in Week 7. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Mac Jones: Jones and the Patriot’s offense look broken. Jones has not thrown a passing touchdown since Week 3. He had more passing touchdowns in Week 1 against Philly than he did in the five games after that. Jones has one game all season with over 7.0 yards per attempt. Until Jones shows some sign of fantasy life, he is a must-sit. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Running Backs

Week 6

James Cook: Cook’s usage has been all over the map weekly, with snap shares as high as 62% or as low as 40%. His pass game role seems to have dried up, with only one game with at least four targets over the last four weeks. He barely edged out Latavius Murray for work last week and lost the red zone battle. He has averaged 14.8 touches and 84.8 total yards as the RB22 in fantasy. His efficiency metrics have started to slide, which could explain the pin ball effect with his playing time. Among 53 qualified backs, Cook ranks 28th in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. New England has not been kind to backs, holding them to the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt with the league’s highest stuff rate. Set realistic expectations for Cook for Week 7. The bar should be set low. Week 7 Positional Value: RB2

Latavius Murray: Murray has been more of a thorn in Cook’s side than a stand-alone fantasy viable back. Last week was Murray’s first game with more than 35 rushing yards. Murray has more red zone opportunities than Cook (12 vs. nine). Murray is a deep league stash or desperation flex only in the right matchup. That is not this matchup. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Rhamondre Stevenson: My concern for Stevenson has reached critical mass. We now enter Week 7 with Stevenson averaging 15.8 touches per game with only 57.5 total yards. He is the RB25 based solely upon his 11th-ranked snap share, tenth ranking in weighted opportunities, and top 16 marks in carries and targets. It has all been volume-related because nothing resembling efficiency has been present. Stevenson ranks outside the top 45 backs in yards per touch and yards created per touch. Out of 53 qualifying backs, he ranks dead last in yards after contact per attempt. If there was any matchup to offer some glimpse of vintage Stevenson, it’s the Bills. Their run defense this season has been abysmal. They have the third-worst explosive run rate, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (5.0). 60.3% of Stevenson’s runs have been with gap designs. Week 7 Positional Value: RB2

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott has only one game with double-digit carries or more than 35 rushing yards. Elliott still has zero explosive runs this season, and a dreadful 6% missed tackle forced per attempt rate. Even in a great matchup, I have no faith or interest in flexing Elliott. Week 7 Positional Value: Droppable/Must sit

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR3 in fantasy points per game with a league-leading 31.2% Target share, a 42.9% air-yard share (ninth-best), 3.00 YPRR (sixth-best), and 42.1% first-read share (third behind only Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams). Diggs is tied for sixth in end-zone targets. The Patriots continue to operate in man coverage at the third-highest rate (36.3%) in the NFL. Against man, Diggs has a 32.7% Target share, 3.13 YPRR, and a 45.2% first-read share (fourth-best among 121 qualifying wide receivers). Diggs will run about 64% of his routes against J.C. Jackson (39.1% catch rate and 56.3 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (70% catch rate and 112.5 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR1

Gabriel Davis: This is likely a week to consider sitting Davis. Against man coverage, Davis has a 15.4% Target share, a 28.8% air-yard share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. His YPRR against zone jumps to 2.19, while his first-read share bumps to 17.5%. This isn’t a great matchup, considering the coverages for Davis, but New England has allowed the 13th-highest adjusted completion rate and the 14th-highest CPOE to deep passing. I won’t be surprised if Davis gets loose for one deep score and then is silent for the rest of the night. That makes him a dart throw WR3/4 type this week who is probably better off on your bench. Week 7 Positional Value: WR3/4

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster practiced on a limited basis (concussion). He has not been cleared from concussion protocol. Even if he plays this week, he’s a sit. Smith-Schuster only has a 44% route run rate this season and a 12.9% Target share. Neither of those usage metrics is strong enough to consider playing him.

Demario Douglas: Douglas practiced on a limited basis (concussion). He has not been cleared from concussion protocol. If Douglas plays, it’s better news for Jones than fantasy managers. Douglas has a 29% route run rate and a 9.1% Target share. The Patriots seem destined to run out lesser receivers all year if possible.

Kendrick Bourne: Bourne had another blow-up game in Week 6. Every time that the Patriots play him in a full-time capacity, he responds, but if this receiver room is healthier in Week 7, he could be banished back to a part-time role. Bourne has at least nine targets in each game he has played more than 56% of the snaps. If Smith-Schuster and Douglas are out, look at Bourne as an interesting flex. Last week, he ran 58% of his routes from the slot with a 30.3% Target share and 2.87 YPRR. Bourne would match up with Taron Johnson (94% catch rate and 99.0 passer rating). Over the last two weeks, Buffalo has utilized zone coverage on 77.3% of their snaps. Bourne has a 20.7% Target share, a 29.1% air-yard share, and 2.26 YPRR against zone. Week 7 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox: In Weeks 1-5, while playing alongside Kincaid, Knox had a 56.6% route run rate with a 10.4% Target share and 0.66 YPRR. He drew four red zone targets and finished above TE25 once. New England has held tight ends to the 13th-fewest fantasy points with only one receiving touchdown. Week 7 Positional Value: TE2

Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid has been fully cleared from concussion protocol, so he will be back this week. In Weeks 1-5, he had a 66.9% route run rate with an 11.2% Target share, a nauseating 2.6 aDOT, and 1.04 YPRR. The Bill’s usage of Kincaid this season has been a travesty. An absolute travesty. Kindaid has only two red zone targets this season, and both came in Week 2. Roll Kincaid out there if you are out of tight-end options, but at this point, we need to see a change in his usage to feel any sense of confidence in him. New England has held tight ends to the 13th-fewest fantasy points with only one receiving touchdown. Week 7 Positional Value: TE2

Hunter Henry: Henry’s fantasy stock has tanked along with this offense. He has topped 20 receiving yards only once in the last four games. His last four games have led to TE28, TE18, TE54, and TE42 finishes. Henry is droppable. Buffalo has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yard and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Week 7 Positional Value: Droppable

JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN

Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts

• CLE -3.5, O/U 41
• Browns vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, with Gardner Minshew under center, the Colts’ blazing pace came to a screeching halt. They ranked 28th in neutral pace for the week, but they were first in neutral passing rate (75%) while also tossing it on 62.5% of their red zone plays.
• Cleveland is tenth in neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Updated: #Browns Deshaun Watson looking good to face the #Colts on Sunday despite being questionable with his strained right rotator cuff https://t.co/2w7JkNdUdZ

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 20, 2023

Deshaun Watson: It looks like Watson will be back this week to face the Colts. He has been listed as questionable, but beat writer reports around the team are hopeful he will be active this week. Watson practiced in full on Friday. Watson has been a middling passer this season, ranking 16th in passing grade, 19th in adjusted completion rate, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate. Thankfully, the Colts have been a below-average pass defense this season that can assist Watson with finishing with his third QB1 outing (QB5, QB10) this season. Indy has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, 12th-highest passer rating, and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Gardner Minshew: Minshew looked rough last week. Among 34 quarterbacks last week to register a dropback, Minshew ranks 29th in passing grade, 18th in yards per attempt, and 19th in adjusted completion rate. He managed a whopping and frankly insane seven turnover-worthy plays. To put that into context, Justin Herbert has seven turnover-worthy plays all season. The Browns’ defense should have no issues wreaking havoc this week. Cleveland has allowed the lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate, without even mentioning their fifth-best pressure rate. Even in Superflex formats, sit Minshew. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Running Backs

Week 6

Jerome Ford: Ford has played 50-62% of the snaps weekly, with Hunt on the roster averaging 15 touches and 62.4 total yards. He has finished as the RB7, RB24, and RB24 in weekly fantasy scoring (PPR). Ford has been impressive as a rusher, ranking 21st in explosive run rate, 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt (among 53 qualified rushers). Indy has allowed the 12th-lowest missed tackles per attempt and yards per carry to gap runs (Ford 56.7% gap). Week 7 Positional Value: RB3

Kareem Hunt: Last week, Hunt played a season-high 37% of the snaps with 15 touches and 71 total yards. That’s Hunt’s most substantial workload since rejoining the team while also noting that he saw every red zone opportunity for the backfield. Hunt’s per-touch efficiency has been lackluster. Among 64 qualifying running backs, he ranks 59th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 56th in yards after contact per attempt. Indy is a middle-of-the-road run defense sitting at 17th in explosive run rate and 15th in stuff rate, but it also has to be mentioned that they have stifled backs with the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Hunt can compensate through the air against a defense that has also allowed the 10th-highest yards per reception to backs. Week 7 Positional Value: RB3

Jonathan Taylor: Last week, Taylor saw his workload ramped up to 42% of the snaps with 13 touches and 65 total yards. Taylor also saw most of the red zone work with five opportunities inside the 20 (Moss three). He’s still rounding into form with zero explosive runs and only 2.50 yards after contact per attempt, but the talent is still there, as evidenced by his 29% missed tackles forced per attempt rate. Taylor should see another bump in his snap share this week, which probably pushes him into the 50-60% range. This could be a breakout game for Taylor, facing a run defense that hasn’t been nearly as fearsome as its pass-game counterpart. Cleveland has given up the fourth-highest explosive run rate and fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt while ranking 16th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Taylor 78.6% zone). Indy’s offensive line ranks sixth-best in yards before contact per attempt on non-QB scramble runs. Week 7 Positional Value: RB2

Zack Moss: Last week was Moss’s smallest snap share of the season (50%), as he had 13 touches and 59 total yards. He also lost out on the red zone battle with only three opportunities inside the 20 compared to Taylor’s five. Moss remains a spinning top back, ranking 25th in explosive run rate and 28th in yards after contact per attempt (among 53 qualified rushers) despite sitting at 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Moss is difficult to trust as anything more than a flex play or RB3 with his work declining. Cleveland has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs while sitting at 16th in yards per carry on zone runs (Moss 80.2% zone). Week 7 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper: Cooper is the WR27 in fantasy, ranking eighth in deep targets and air yards. Cooper has a 22.1% Target share with a 42.5% air-yard share, 2.24 YPRR, and a 30.5% first-read share. Cooper will run about 76% of his routes on the perimeter against Juju Brents (68% catch rate and 101.8 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (75% catch rate and 136.5 passer rating). Indy has allowed the fifth-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this season. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2

Elijah Moore: Moore has been woefully underperforming again this season. He is the WR41 in expected fantasy points per game, which isn’t great, but he is currently the WR62 in fantasy points per game. Moore has a 19.8% Target share and 16.0% air-yard share, but he has only produced 0.99 YPRR and 7.9 yards per reception with the volume. Moore has a 17.8% first-read share. Moore will run about 53% of his routes from the slot against Kenny Moore (76.7% catch rate and 80.8 passer rating). Indy has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points to opposing slot receivers this season. Week 7 Positional Value: WR5

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR19 in fantasy, commanding a 26.1% Target share with a 30.2% air-yard share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Pittman ranks 26th and 12th among wideouts in deep and red zone targets. He has a red zone target in five of six games. The Browns utilize man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (42.1%). Against man, Pittman has seen his Target share drop to 21.2% with only 1.3 YPRR and a 21.6% first-read share (second on the team). The Colts will likely be trailing in this game, so we can expect a healthy target total for Pittman, but it’s fair to wonder how much he does with it. Pittman will run about 73% of his routes against Denzel Ward (48.3% catch rate and 90.0 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (30% catch rate and 35.0 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR3

Josh Downs: Downs might only be the WR48 in fantasy, but he has come on strong lately with WR3 or better finishes in three of his last four games (WR32, WR18, WR30). He has a 17.6% Target share, 1.50 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. The Browns deploy man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (42.1%). Against man, Downs has been the Colts’ go-to with a team-leading 22.7% Target share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 23.5% first-read share. Downs ranks 12th among wide receivers in red zone targets while also noting that he had four looks inside the 20 last week. Downs will run about 84% of his routes against Greg Newsome (60% catch rate and 78.2 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR3/4

Tight Ends

David Njoku: This is quickly turning into a lost season for Njoku. He is the TE21 in fantasy with a 12.8% Target share, a 5.2% air-yard share, and only 1.09 YPRR. Njoku has zero targets downfield or in the red zone. He has finished as the TE19 or lower in four of five games. He’s barely on the streaming radar this week, but the matchup is good. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 7 Positional Value: TE2

Kylen Granson: Granson has been ruled out (concussion). 

JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears

• LV -2.5, O/U 37.5
• Raiders vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Las Vegas ranks 18th in neutral pace with the 15th-highest neutral rushing rate.
• The Bears are 31st in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate. I doubt those figures change with Tyson Bagent under center.

Quarterbacks

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo has been ruled out.

Brian Hoyer will be the starting quarterback for the Raiders against the Bears, per source.

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) October 20, 2023

Brian Hoyer: Hoyer will draw the start this week. Last week in relief, he completed 60% of his passes with 10.2 yards per attempt. We know who Hoyer is at this juncture. A low-end backup with career marks of 7.0 yards per attempt and a 68.3% adjusted completion rate. Yeah, those aren’t good. The good thing about Hoyer is that he is not afraid to take chances downfield. Last week, his aDOT was 13.5, and he has multiple seasons above nine and ten yards, so expect Hoyer to take some shots this week. Hoyer could produce some strong QB2 numbers this week if you’re in a pinch. The Bears pass defense has been abysmal this season. They have given up the fifth-highest adjusted completion rate, the fifth-highest yards per attempt, and the second-highest passer rating. Week 7 Positional Value: QB2

Tyson Bagent:Bagent draws the start this week. Before I dive into his outlook for this week let’s get some back story on the unknown quarterback from Shepherd. He set the NCAA record for touchdown passes with 159 in his collegiate career. In 2021 he won DII’s version of the Heisman Trophy (Harlon Hill Trophy). In his final season, he became DII’s all-time passing yards leader with 17.034. The kid can play. Here are some of my takeaways from watching limited film on him prior to the Senior Bowl:

• Lapses in his mechanics can lead to him threading the needle on one throw and airmailing the next of a similar depth/play design.
• Plus arm strength. Effortless velocity on throws.

Bagent has NFL-caliber arm talent. His play-to-play consistency and mechanics were the issue, but with better coaching at the NFL level, I’m hoping some of those things have been cleaned up. He has legit NFL arm talent, though. Last week, he completed 71.4% of his throws with 5.9 yards per attempt and an 8.8 aDOT. He did have a 12.5% turnover-worthy play rate, which is quite concerning, but it was a sample of 15 dropbacks for a rookie seeing his first NFL action with no reps with the starters. The kid was essentially tossed into the fire and asked not to get burned, so let’s take these numbers with a grain of salt. His 2.25 time to throw was good to see as he gripped it and ripped it quickly. Bagent is a decent QB2/Superflex option this week. Las Vegas isn’t an overwhelming pass defense to fear. The Raiders are 16th in passer rating, allowing the ninth-highest adjusted completion rate with the fifth-lowest pressure rate. Bagent can put up serviceable numbers this week with quarterback play at a high enough level to support the skill players that we are looking to in this offense. Week 7 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB14 in fantasy, averaging 22 touches and 86.8 total yards. He has been a volume play all season, ranking fourth in snap share, second in opportunity share, first in weighted opportunities, and third in red zone touches. Among 53 qualified backs, he ranks 40th in explosive run rate, 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 50th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs’ pass game role will have to bail him out this week. Jacobs ranks first in raw target volume, second in Target share (18.5%), and sixth in YPRR among backs. The Bears’ run defense has been stout, keeping backs to the sixth-lowest explosive run rate and the 11th-fewest rushing yards. Chicago is sixth in stuff rate. The Bears can’t stop receiving backs, though. They have allowed the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns to running backs. Week 7 Positional Value: Volume-based RB1

Roschon Johnson: Johnson has been ruled out (concussion).

D’Onta Foreman: Last week, Foreman played 61% of the snaps with 16 touches and 67 total yards. He had only a 28% route run rate and one target, so his fantasy value will come from his production on early downs. Among 65 qualifying running backs, Foreman ranks seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Foreman gets a cake matchup this week with 20-touch upside. The Raiders have given up the 13th-highest explosive run rate and eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also owning the sixth-lowest stuff rate. They have surrendered the seventh-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Foreman 50% gap). Week 7 Positional Value: Volume-based RB2

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Adams practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 7. Adams is the WR12 in fantasy, ranking first in red zone targets. Among 138 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks third in Target share (30.1%), 12th in air-yard share (42.0%), 19th in YPRR (2.38), and second in first-read share (43.4%). The Bears have utilized zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. Against zone, Adams has seen his YPRR increase from 2.38 to 2.54. Adams will run about 83% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (47.1% catch rate and 64.6 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (71% catch rate and 137.9 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR1

Jakobi Meyers: It’s about time that people put respect on Meyers’ name. He was a baller for years, buried in the Patriots’ pitiful passing attack. Now Meyers is showing people why the Raiders coveted him. He is the WR11 in fantasy, ranking 16th in Target share (25.0%), 32nd in YPRR (2.08), and 20th in first-read share. Meyers is seventh among wideouts in red zone targets. Meyers will run about 73% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (47.1% catch rate and 64.6 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (71% catch rate and 137.9 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR2

D.J. Moore: Moore has been crushing this season as the WR9 in fantasy, but the helium has been taken out of his balloon. Justin Fields will be sidelined by his mangled thumb, which leaves Tyson Baegent starting in Week 7. Last week with Bagent under center, Moore still saw eight targets as he finished with five receptions and 51 receiving yards (WR37). Baegent will determine Moore’s ceiling and floor moving forward as long as Fields is sidelined. Moore is fourth among wideouts in deep targets. Among 99 qualifying wide receivers, Moore ranks 21st in Target share (23.3%), fourth in air-yard share (45.9%), eighth in YPRR (2.97), and sixth in first-read share (37.4%). Bagent should know where his bread is buttered as a passer. Feed Moore, and you have a chance, rookie. Moore will run about 83% of his routes against Marcus Peters (66.7% catch rate and 99.3 passer rating) and Amik Robertson (62.5% catch rate and 92.7 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Michael Mayer: Well, it’s about time! Mayer is now a full-time player in the Raiders’ offense. He played 81% of snaps in Week 6 with an 18.7% Target share and a 68.7% route run rate. Over the last two weeks, he has produced some jaw-dropping efficiency numbers, with a 25% target per route run rate and 3.16 yards per route run. Mayer has not yet seen a deep target or a red zone look. Mayer should post TE1 numbers this week against a defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 7 Positional Value: TE1

Cole Kmet: Kmet is the TE5 in fantasy, seeing a 19.6% Target share (eighth-best). He ranks 11th in raw target volume and tenth in air-yard share. Kmet has seen the seventh-most deep targets and third-most red zone looks among tight ends. Among 43 qualifying tight ends, Kmet ranks sixth in receiving grade and eighth in YPRR. Kmet’s stock takes a big hit with the quarterback change this week in Chicago, so don’t expect more than TE2 numbers. Las Vegas ranks 17th in receiving yards and 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Week 7 Positional Value: TE2

JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -8, O/U 44.5
• Cardinals vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Seattle continues to operate in a fantasy-friendly fashion, ranking ninth in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.
• The game will be one of the best-paced of the entire slate, as Arizona ranks 12th in neutral pace. They have used the play volume to feed their rushing attack, which is ninth in neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith has played much better this season than his QB23 fantasy output would suggest. This is a great bounce back spot for him in Week 7. Smith ranks ninth in passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and second-best in adjusted completion rate. He will have all day in the pocket to pick apart this porous secondary. The Cardinals are 32nd in pressure rate while they allow the third-highest yards per attempt, fourth-highest passer rating, and fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 7 Positional Value: QB1

Josh Dobbs: Well, the entire fantasy community turned to Dobbs for quarterback help after he reeled off QB1 finishes (QB5, QB8) in Weeks 2 and 4, and then he proceeded to turn back into a pumpkin before Halloween. Over the last two weeks, he has failed to cross 6.0 yards per attempt in either start while rushing for a grand total of 48 yards. He was the QB22 and QB20 in those contests. Dobbs could author a nice bounce back game this week against a pass defense that ranks 14th in passer rating and adjusted completion rate with the third-most passing yards per game allowed. Week 7 Positional Value: QB2 with upside

Running Backs

Week 6

Keaontay Ingram: The Cardinals backfield is a complete fade. Stay away. Arizona decided in Week 6 to deploy a nightmare fuel three-way committee. Ingram played 37% of the snaps while leading the team with ten rushing attempts and handling the red zone work. His zero explosive runs this season screams stay away and his 2.00 yards after contact per attempt doesn’t help quell any fears. Seattle is no joke as a run defense. They have the fifth-best stuff rate, eighth-lowest missed tackles rate allowed, and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Until this backfield narrows to two options or the matchup is elite, stay away. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Damien Williams: Well 2023 has been full of surprises in the NFL. In Week 6, it brought Damien Williams back into our lives. If you had Williams rolling into this backfield last week with nine opportunities with his 13 snaps, I’m happy for you. That wasn’t on my bingo card. Do not get cute and decide to pick up or play Williams against a run defense that is top-ten in stuff rate and yards after contact per attempt allowed. Seattle has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Emari Demercado: So, let me get this straight. Demercado leads the backfield with 43% of the snaps and runs 26 routes compared to only 13 for Williams and Ingram combined and he garners only three touches and zero red zone role. Ok. Lovely. The thesis of the play in that Demercado would lead the backfield in Week 6 was right…and wrong at the same time. The driving factor for Arizona’s offense will be their passing game in Week 7, not their rushing attack. Sit Demercado or drop him. This backfield is a wasteland. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

Kenneth Walker: Walker is the RB8 in fantasy ranking 13th in snap share, tenth in opportunity share, fourth in red zone touches, and 20th in weighted opportunities. Walker has averaged 18.8 touches and 89 total yards while playing at least 71% of the snaps in each of the last two games. Walker is one of my favorite pure rushers in the NFL. Among 53 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in explosive run rate, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Walker should destroy the Arizona Cardinals run defense that has the third-lowest stuff rate, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, adn the ninth-highest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (4.71). 61.4% of Walker’s runs have been on zone plays. Week 7 Positional Value: RB1

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet didn’t practice at all this week (hamstring). He has been listed as questionable, although I think he’s closer to doubtful. Week 7 Positional Value: Sit

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: Brown is the WR21 in fantasy, gobbling up a 27.0% Target share, a 43.3% air-yard share, and a 32.5% first-read share with 1.79 YPRR. Brown ranks fifth among wide receivers in deep targets, and he’s also 12th in red zone targets. In Weeks 2-5, he never finished lower than WR22 (WR22, WR20, WR14, WR17) in weekly scoring. Seattle has been burned by wide receivers all season, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Brown will run about 82% of his routes against Tre Brown (54.5% catch rate and 83.7 passer rating) and Tariq Woolen (70% catch rate and 120.0 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR2

Michael Wilson: Wilson has come alive against zone coverage this season. Against zone he has a 14.7% Target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, and 2.64 YPRR (Wow!). His first read share also sits at 18.1%. Seattle happens to utilize zone on 83.8% of their snaps (the highest rate in the NFL). If you’re looking for an off-the-beaten-path flex this week that can offer some substantial upside, Wilson is your guy. Wilson will run about 71% of his routes against Tre Brown (54.5% catch rate and 83.7 passer rating) and Tariq Woolen (70% catch rate and 120.0 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside this week

Tyler Lockett: Lockett is the WR34 in fantasy, garnering a 20% Target share, a 36.0% air-yard share, and a 25.0% first-read share (second on the team). Lockett ranks seventh among receivers in red zone targets. His fantasy stock has been buoyed by his two top 20 weeks (WR6, WR19), but the other three games he has played have not been kind for fantasy (WR87, WR55, WR42). Lockett will run about 62% of his routes against Kei’Trel Clark (75.8% catch rate and 117.7 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (79.5% catch rate and 133.5 passer rating). Arizona has allowed the sixth-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers. Week 7 Positional Value: WR2

DK Metcalf will be game-time decision vs. Cardinals after limited practice | The Seattle Times https://t.co/U8kDEGrTgo

— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) October 21, 2023

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf didn’t practice all week before logging a limited session on Friday. Metcalf is a true game-time decision. I think he will likely sit this week, but I’ll update his outlook on Saturday. Find other options if you are counting on him for Week 7.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has a 13.6% Target share with 1.09 YPRR and an 11.0% first-read share. In Weeks 1-5, Smith-Njigba had a 58.9% route run rate and 2.7 aDOT. Last week that changed as his route run rate increased to 70%, and his aDOT climbed to 7.4. This looks like the breakout week that we’ve been waiting for. Smith-Njigba can play the perimeter if asked this week if Metcalf sits. As a boundary receiver this season, his YPRR has been a sparkling 2.55, and his TPRR is a wonderful 34%. His numbers have fallen off a cliff in the slot with 0.38 YPRR and a 16% TPRR. If Smith-Njigba stays in the slot, he can still eat against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to slot wideouts. Week 7 Positional Value: WR3 if Metcalf is out with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz: Ertz isn’t startable anymore. His route run rate dropped to 46.2% last week as McBride got more involved. Ertz has been a nasty volume play all season, but now the volume has been drained. Seattle is no longer a start all your tight ends against them type of matchup. Seattle has held tight ends to the tenth-fewest receiving yards and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game this season. Week 7 Positional Value: Must sit

SEA TEs: No Seattle tight end is fantasy viable. They split the work three ways, with no player seeing more than a 41.5% route run rate or an 8.9% Target share.

JAC vs. NO | WAS vs. NYG | ATL vs. TB | DET vs. BAL | BUF vs. NE | CLE vs. IND | LV vs. CHI | ARI vs. SEA | PIT vs. LAR | LAC vs. KC | GB vs. DEN | MIA vs. PHI | SF vs. MIN