Derek Brown | Thu, Oct 12th 2023, 6:49am EDT

The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans

NO -1.5, O/U 42.5
Saints vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

New Orleans is seventh and tenth in neutral pace and passing rate this season.
This game should be extremely fast-paced. Houston also ranks top-ten in neutral pace (sixth-best). Their neutral passing rate has slipped to 20th, with the team leaning more to the run over the last few weeks.

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr: Carr looks to be close to full health again. Last week was arguably his best passing game of the season. He ranked seventh in passing grade with the highest big-time throw rate of the week. Even if his other numbers didn’t support it, his time to throw also went back up with 2.78. Houston is a middle-of-the-road pass defense that has displayed issues with defending the deep ball. The Texans’ pass defense is 16th in yards per attempt, 17th in passer rating, and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. They have given up the third-highest adjusted completion rate. Against the deep ball, they have been burned for the 12th-highest deep passer rating and the second-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. With Carr healthy, expect him to challenge this secondary deep. Carr leads the NFL in deep passing attempts while sitting at 17th in deep passing grade. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is the QB15 in fantasy, ranking fifth in yards per attempt, ninth-best in passer rating, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. Stroud will have a tough time this week against a nasty Saints’ secondary. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the lowest adjusted completion rate to quarterbacks. New Orleans has utilized man coverage at the sixth-highest rate this season (34.7%). The small feather in Stroud’s cap is that he is third-best in yards per attempt and fourth-best in passer rating against man coverage. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB6 in fantasy. He leads all backs in opportunity share. He has played 62-75% of the snaps this season, averaging 24.5 touches and 90.5 total yards. After his nutty 14 target debut in Week 4, his target volume declined last week as he had only three. I expect that to even out throughout the season. Kamara’s role has been elite since his return, but his tackling-breaking ability hasn’t been. Among 63 backs with at least 15 carries, Kamara has the third-lowest missed tackles forced per attempt and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Houston is a confounding matchup for Kamara this week. They have been porous in some weeks while looking like a shutdown unit in others. This can be traced to the ability to stop zone runs well while getting gashed by gap runs. The Texans have allowed the sixth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Kamara 87.9% zone) and the eighth-highest yards per carry to gap runs. Houston is also 15th in explosive run rate allowed. Kamara is a volume play. Week 6 Positional Value: Volume-based RB1

Dameon Pierce: Pierce is the RB30 in fantasy, averaging 18.6 touches and 66.2 total yards. He ranks 16th in opportunity share, 13th in weighted opportunity, and 11th in red zone touches. The runout has not been kind to him. He’s the RB11 in expected fantasy points per game. The blocking upfront has not helped him out, as he ranks eight-worst in yards before contact per attempt. Among 63 qualifying backs, Pierce ranks 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt but only 45th in explosive run rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. New Orleans has been gaining strength on the run defense front weekly. They have allowed the 14th-lowest explosive run rate while having the tenth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt. They have given up the second-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Pierce 66.7% zone). Pierce will bounce back this season, but it won’t happen in Week 6. Week 6 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Chris Olave: Olave leads the Saints with a 25.4% target share, a 42.5% air-yard share, and a 33.3% first-read share. If Carr attacks deep, Olave should be leading the way as he has 15 deep targets this season (leads all wide receivers). Olave has massive positive regression that’s ready to pounce as he leads all receivers in unrealized air yards. Olave will run about 55% of his routes against Steven Nelson (70.6% catch rate and 54.2 passer rating) and Ka’dar Hollman (Career: 38.9% catch rate and 78.7 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside if he can connect deep with Carr

Michael Thomas: Thomas is second on the team with a 21.9% target share and a 26.9% first-read share. He has also seen a 26.1% air-yard share, producing 1.81 YPRR. The Texans utilize zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (84.6%). Against zone, Thomas’s target share falls to 18%, and his first-read share dips to 22.8%. Thomas leads the team with five red zone targets. He will run about 64% of his routes against Steven Nelson (70.6% catch rate and 54.2 passer rating) and Ka’dar Hollman (Career: 38.9% catch rate and 78.7 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3/4

Rashid Shaheed: Did someone say zone coverage? Did you also say that a secondary struggles against deep passing? Hello, Shaheed. Both of these avenues have been his bread and butter. Shaheed is second on the team with eight deep targets. Against zone coverage, Shaheed’s target share increases from 12.4% to 13.3%, and his YPRR jumps from 1.60 to 2.00. This is a possible spike week game for Shaheed. He will run about 61% of his routes against Steven Nelson (70.6% catch rate and 54.2 passer rating) and Ka’dar Hollman (Career: 38.9% catch rate and 78.7 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR4/5 with WR3 upside

Nico Collins: Collins is the WR11 in fantasy with a 19.3% target share, a 29.4% air-yard share, and a 24.8% first-read share. Collins ranks eighth in receiving grade and seventh in YPRR. If Stroud is to defeat the Saint’s man coverage, he will need Collins to lead the way in Week 6. Against man coverage, Collins’ YPRR jumps from 3.29 to 4.23, and his first-read share increases from 24.8% to 25.9%. Collins will run about 81% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (54.5% catch rate and 59.3 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (50% catch rate and 48.8 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3

Tank Dell: Dell’s status remains up in the air, but he is not expected to play. If he does clear concussion protocol, he’s a risky start. The Saints have held perimeter wide receivers to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game (Dell 71% out wide). Against man coverage, Dell only has a 13.9% target share and an 18.5% first-read share, but he has been uber productive when targeted with 4.86 YPRR. If Dell suits up, he’ll see Marshon Lattimore (54.5% catch rate and 59.3 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (50% catch rate and 48.8 passer rating) in coverage all day. Week 6 Positional Value: WR4 if active

Robert Woods: Woods has been listed as questionable (ribs). Woods has a 20.3% target share, a 26.0% air-yard share, and a 23.2% first-read share (second on the team). Woods is tied for the team lead in red zone targets. If Noah Brown plays this week, I expect Woods to move back to the perimeter with Dell sidelined. This means he will be matched up against Marshon Lattimore (54.5% catch rate and 59.3 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (50% catch rate and 48.8 passer rating). Sit Woods this week. Week 6 Positional Value: Must-sit

Tight Ends

NO TEs: No Saints’ tight end managed more than a 36.7% route run rate or 3.8% target share in Week 5. Avoid the Saints’ tight ends this week despite the amazing matchup. Houston has allowed the most receiving yards and the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. There’s just no way to predict which Saints’ tight end possibly comes down with a touchdown or a big day this week (if anyone).

Dalton Schultz: Let’s keep this short and sweet. In this house, we do not play tight ends against the Saints. New Orleans has allowed the fewest receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends this season. Find another streaming option this week if you’ve been plugging in Schultz. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders

LV -3, O/U 41
Patriots vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

New England is second in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
The Raiders are 14th and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones: At this point, the biggest question for Jones isn’t just can we play him in fantasy, but will he finish a game? The Patriots have been shellacked so badly in recent weeks that he hasn’t played 100% of the snaps since Week 3. Jones has finished higher than QB22 only once this season. Jones has the seventh-lowest passing grade, the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest adjusted completion rate. Jones is a must-sit until this offense shows some signs of life. Since Week 3, the Patriots have scored 18 total points. 18. I have no words. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo ranks 21st in passing grade, 11th in yards per attempt, and 22nd in adjusted completion rate. He has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback twice this season (QB11, QB12). New England has still been a pass defense to worry about as they have held quarterbacks in check, allowing the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, 11th-fewest passing touchdowns, and eighth-fewest fantasy points via passing. Week 6 Positional Value: low-end QB2

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson’s snaps have trended down for four straight weeks, from 73% in Week 2 to 50% last week. He hasn’t rushed for more than 59 yards or higher than 3.3 yards per carry all season. Among 63 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks 49th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 59th in yards after contact per attempt. He hasn’t recorded an explosive run. I’d love to tell you that Stevenson gets on track this week, but I’m losing faith quickly that it will happen this season. Las Vegas has allowed the 11th-highest missed tackles per attempt, the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the tenth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Stevenson 60.3% gap). Week 6 Positional Value: low-end RB2

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott’s snaps have trended up with a season-high 46% last week. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged 10.6 touches and 40 total yards. Among 63 qualifying running backs, Elliott ranks 60th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 54th in yards after contact per attempt. As bad as Stevenson has been, Elliott has been worse. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has risen from the ashes. He is the RB13 in fantasy, thanks largely to his pass game usage. Over the last three weeks, Jacobs has averaged 23.3 touches and 102.3 total yards. Among 63 qualifying backs, Jacobs ranks 44th in explosive run rate, 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 53rd in yards after contact per attempt. He ranks sixth in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, second in weighted opportunity, and fourth in red zone touches. New England has kept backs under wraps, holding them to the seventh-lowest explosive run rate and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt while also having the third-highest stuff rate. Week 6 Positional Value: RB2

Wide Receivers

Demario Douglas: Douglas has been ruled out (concussion).

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster has been ruled out (concussion).

DeVante Parker: Parker is the WR75 in fantasy. He has a 14.7% target share, a 14% TPRR, and zero red zone targets. Parker hasn’t eclipsed 60 receiving yards or a WR45 finish in any week. Drop him. Week 6 Positional Value: Droppable

Davante Adams: Adams is the WR9 in fantasy. The Patriots utilize man coverage at the third-highest rate (36.9% per Fantasy Points Data) in the NFL. Against man coverage, Adams has a mind-melting 42.9% target share, a 50.6% air-yard share, 2.91 YPRR, and a 53.1% first-read share. Adams leads all wide receivers in red zone targets. Adams will run about 86% of his routes against Jonathan Jones (40% catch rate and 47.9 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (47.1% catch rate and 69.0 passer rating). This is a tough matchup, but it’s Davante Adams. Week 6 Positional Value: WR1

Jakobi Meyers: A Meyers revenge game should be sweet. He is the WR14 in fantasy, ranking 13th in red zone targets. Meyers has drawn a 25.7% target share, a 35.7% air-yard share, and a 30% first-read share while producing 2.12 YPRR. New England rolls out man coverage at the third-highest clip in the NFL (36.9%). Against man, Meyers’ target share has skyrocketed to 35.3% (2.00 YPRR) with a 34.6% first-read share. Meyers will run about 72% of his routes against Jonathan Jones (40% catch rate and 47.9 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (47.1% catch rate and 69.0 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Henry is the TE11 with a 13.7% target share, a 79% route participation rate, and two red zone targets (23rd). Las Vegas ranks 18th in receiving yards and 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (allowing the eighth-lowest yards per reception). Week 6 Positional Value: TE2

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DET -3, O/U 42.5
Lions vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Lions have the fourth-slowest neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
The Buccaneers rank 19th in neutral pace and have the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Goff is the QB12 in fantasy as he has lived off touchdown production. Goff is only 14th in passing attempts, but he has the seventh-most passing touchdowns, along with two rushing touchdowns. The craziest part about all of that is that Goff’s rushing touchdown production isn’t insane when you consider he has the most red zone carries (eight) among quarterbacks. It’s not an accident that the Lions offense has been humming because Goff has been playing exceptional football. He is first in passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate. Goff is eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Goff will have a stout test this week against a Buccaneer’s secondary that has held passers to the tenth-lowest yards per attempt, fifth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has been a serviceable QB2 this season (QB17). He is 14th in passing grade, 15th in yards per attempt, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. The Lions have been a pliable pass defense. Despite allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt with their shutdown run defense, teams have been forced to take to the sky. Detroit has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the 14th-most passing yards per game (fourth-most passing attempts faced). The Lions have the eighth-best pressure rate, and while that could cause concern for Mayfield this week, he has quietly been electric against pressure. Mayfield has the fourth-best yards per attempt and the highest passer rating against pressure this season. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Running Backs

David Montgomery: Montgomery is the RB5 in fantasy, averaging 23.3 touches and 104.6 total yards. He has played at least 71% of the snaps in three of four games while ranking 19th in opportunity share, and fourth in red zone touches. Montgomery is ninth-best in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery should eat again this week against a Bucs run defense that is sixth-worst in stuff rate and 12th-worst in yards after contact per attempt. Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-highest yard per carry to zone runs (Montgomery 51.1% zone). Week 6 Positional Value: RB1

Jahmyr Gibbs:Gibbs has been ruled out (hamstring).

Rachaad White: White is the RB25 in fantasy averaging 19.1 touches and 73 total yards. White has been the volume back that everyone hoped for coming into the season, but he has done very little with the workload. He ranks seventh in snap share, 12th in opportunity share, and tenth in weighted opportunity. The problem is he ranks 40th in yards per touch and 27th in yards created per touch. He has not recorded an explosive run this season while ranking 47th in yards after contact per attempt. White will spend this Sunday running into brick walls against Detroit. The Lions remain an elite run defense, allowing the fourth-lowest explosive run rate and the fourth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Detroit has the eighth-best stuff rate. Week 6 Positional Value: Volume-based RB3

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown:St. Brown (abdomen) practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. He doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 6. St. Brown has a 26.0% target share, a 32.6% air-yard share, 2.76 YPRR, and a 34.9% first-read share. Tampa Bay utilizes zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate (80.7%) in the NFL. Among 97 qualifying wide receivers, St. Brown ranks 17th in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage. St. Brown will run about 51% of his routes against Christian Izien (85.7% catch rate and 79.8 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR1

Joshua Reynolds: Last week, the Lions deployed a committee approach at wide receiver. Reynolds led the way with a 17.9% target share and had a 42% TPRR, but if not for that hyper-targeted usage, he would have face-planted. Reynolds was fourth among the group with a 40% route run rate. Asking him to walk that thin of a tightrope moving forward (if it holds) is too dangerous to depend on weekly. Reynolds has only seen two red zone targets. It’s not like we can even hang out hat on massive touchdown equity in this offense. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

Jameson Williams: Williams had the same issue as Reynolds. Playing time. He only managed a 43% route run rate and a 10.7% target share last week. He’s a stash only for now. Week 6 Positional Value: Stash

Mike Evans:Evans (hamstring) practiced in full on Friday. He doesn’t carry an injury designation into Week 6. Evans is the WR12 in fantasy, ranking 16th in deep targets among wide receivers. Evans has a 23.8% target share, a 45.6% air-yard share, 3.30 YPRR, and a 30.5% first-read share. He will run about 74% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (66.7% catch rate and 108.7 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (64.9% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2

Chris Godwin: Godwin has a 23% target share, a 28.3% air-yard share, 2.28 YPRR, and a 30.5% first read share as he has transitioned back to being a perimeter receiver (65% wide) this season. The Lions have utilized zone coverage on 71.3% of their snaps this season. Against zone, Godwin has seen his YPRR drop to 1.73 and his first-read share dip to 28.6%. These are still healthy figures, but the decline is noteworthy. Godwin is the WR39 in fantasy, but better days are ahead as he’s the WR20 in expected fantasy points. He has the third-most red zone targets among wide receivers, but he still has zero touchdowns. Godwin will tangle with Cameron Sutton (66.7% catch rate and 108.7 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (64.9% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating) all day. Week 6 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame is the TE3 in fantasy points per game. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he ranks sixth in target share, first in YPRR, and 12th in first-read share. Ballgame has been a revelation. This matchup will be one of the toughest he has faced yet. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-lowest yards per reception and the eighth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends. LaPorta popped up on the injury report this week (calf). He didn’t practice on Thursday but was able to sneak in a limited practice on Friday. He has been listed as questionable. Week 6 Positional Value: TE1

Cade Otton: Otton enters the matchup-based streaming conversation this week. He is the TE21 in Fantasy with a 12.6% target share (22nd) and only two red zone targets (19th). Otton ranks outside the top 24 tight ends in YAC and YPRR. This all comes down to the Lions’ inability to stop tight ends, as they have allowed the second-most receiving yards and the third-most fantasy points to the position. Week 6 Positional Value: Matchup-based streaming TE2 option

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

LAR -6.5, O/U 48.5
Cardinals vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

The Rams remain a slow (21st in neutral pace) yet pass-centric team (fifth-highest neutral passing rate).
Arizona will help out the play volume of this game as they have the tenth-fastest neutral pace while ranking 17th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs has been a serviceable QB2/streaming option this season, with two top-ten fantasy finishes on his resume. This isn’t the week to consider him in fantasy, though. Dobbs ranks 26th in passing grade, 27th in yards per attempt, and 25th in adjusted completion rate. The Rams have allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Los Angeles has given up the tenth-fewest fantasy points via passing this season. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

Matthew Stafford: Stafford is the QB18 in Fantasy this season, but a lot of that has to do with touchdowns because his level of play and other various metrics all scream he should be a QB1. Stafford ranks sixth in passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and fourth in passing yards. He is 16th in passing touchdowns with only five, but that will change. Last week, the Rams, who have been extremely run-heavy in the red zone, passed on 66.7% of their plays inside the 20 (eighth-highest). Arizona has been giving it up to quarterbacks this season. They have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points via passing while also permitting the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate. Stafford monster game is incoming. Week 6 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Emari Demercado: Yes, I know Keaontay Ingram has been listed as the RB1 on the depth chart. I couldn’t care less about that, to be honest. Last week, Demercado played 77% of the snaps with Ingram out and finished with 11 touches and 57 total yards. He finished with 3.4 yards after contact per attempt and a 92.7 elusive rating. Not too shabby. Those numbers are far superior to anything we have from Ingram. In his final collegiate season, among 168 qualifying FBS backs, Demercado ranked 18th in yards after contact per attempt, 43rd in breakaway rate, and 74th in elusive rating. I didn’t watch Demercado in the predraft process this season, so I was curious about him. I did a brief film review of his carries in the NFL and college. What I saw was a back with good burst. A straight-line runner that gets North/South quickly. He has some bend, but he isn’t a yards-creator. He doesn’t have a ton of wiggle, but if you give him a crease, he has the bust and speed to hit home runs. He has an 83rd percentile speed score and 79th percentile burst score per Playerprofiler.com. Listening to the Cardinal’s head coach speak about him, the team feels comfortable with him on passing downs, so I expect him to soak up that work while also factoring in on early downs. Los Angeles is a wonderful matchup for backs. They have allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate; the tenth-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt. Week 6 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

Keaontay Ingram:Ingram has been listed as the RB1 on the team’s depth chart. I won’t put much stock in this in determining the workload for him versus Emari Demercado. Ingram will be back this week after being sidelined with a neck issue. He practiced in full on Friday and isn’t listed with an injury designation. In the two career games, Ingram has played at least 30% of the snaps; he totaled 16 touches that he turned into 40 total yards. That’s not great. Now, add in that across 76 career NFL carries (regular and preseason), Ingram has 2.11 yards after contact per attempt, and you can easily see how Demercado can finish Week 6 with more production and touches than Ingram. That said, the Rams have had major issues stopping the run this year. They have allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate; the tenth-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt. Ingram might be the favorite for goal-line work among the two backs, but there’s no way to know for sure. I wouldn’t depend on that this week. If both backs are on the waiver wire in shallower leagues, Demercado would be the pickup. Week 6 Positional Value: RB4 with RB3 upside

Kyren Williams: Williams is the RB10 in Fantasy who has played at least 72% of the snaps since Week 2, averaging 18.8 touches and 87.3 total yards. Williams ranks first in snap share, 11th in opportunity share, and third in weighted opportunity among running backs. He is also fourth in red zone touches. Among 63 qualified rushers, Williams ranks 43rd in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 49th in yards after contact per attempt. None of his tackle-breaking metrics will impress you. His role is what we covet in fantasy. Volume remains king in fantasy. Arizona has a middling run defense, ranking 17th yards after contact per attempt with the fourth-lowest stuff rate. They have allowed the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and 13th-lowest explosive run rate. Arizona also ranks 15th in yards per carry allowed to gap runs (4.2). Williams has seen 77.9% of his rushing attempts on gap scheme runs. Week 6 Positional Value: low-end RB1

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown: Brown is the WR17 in fantasy with a 27.1% target share and a 41.2% air-yard share. He ranks 26th in receiving grade and 39th in YPRR with a 30.5% first-read share. Brown ranks 23rd among wideouts in red zone and deep targets. Brown will run about 81% of his routes against Ahkello Witherspoon (40.9% catch rate and 36.7 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (45.5% catch rate and 74.8 passer rating). Los Angeles has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the second-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 6 Positional Value: Volume-based WR3

Michael Wilson: Wilson has seen a bump against zone coverage this season. The Rams utilize zone at the tenth highest rate this season (74.9%). Against zone coverage, Wilson’s target share increases from 12.3% to 15.7%, his YPRR inflates from 2.09 to 3.01, and his first-read share grows from 14.3% to 17.9%. He will run about 68% of his routes against Ahkello Witherspoon (40.9% catch rate and 36.7 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (45.5% catch rate and 74.8 passer rating). Wilson has four deep targets and two red zone looks this season. He’s an interesting flex play despite the brutal matchup. Week 6 Positional Value: Dart throw flex

Cooper Kupp: Kupp returned last week and logged an 87% route run rate with a 32.4% target share, a 39.0% air yard share, and 3.28 YPRR. He led the team with a 40.0% first-read share. Kupp was the WR12 for the week. Well, so much for my theory that Kupp would be eased back into the mix. Kupp and Nacua rotated through the slot as Kupp ran from the inside on 54% of his routes. Kupp will face the combination of Jalen Thompson (76.5% catch rate and 83.5 passer rating) and Antonio Hamilton (66.7% catch rate and 77.8 passer rating) this week. Week 6 Positional Value: WR1

Puka Nacua: With Kupp back, Nacua still ate like the king that he is. Nacua had a 29.7% target share, a 40.2% air-yard share, 1.87 YPRR, and a 26.7% first-read share. He was the WR11 in Fantasy last week. Nacua is tied for third on the team with only two red zone targets. That number will go up if the Rams continue their new trend of tossing more in the red zone. Nacua will run about 51% of his routes against Marco Wilson (79.5% catch rate and 137.5 passer rating) and Kei’Trel Clark (73.3% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating). The Cardinals have allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target rate to boundary receivers this season. Week 6 Positional Value: WR1

Tutu Atwell: Atwell faded into the background last week, with Kupp and Nacua stealing the show. He had an 87% route run rate with a 13.5% target share and an 18.9% air-yard share. He led the trio with a 56% slot rate as the group rotated positions. I expect Sean McVay to continue to slightly lean Atwell’s direction for slot rate of the three to get him against off-coverage. Atwell will tangle with Jalen Thompson (76.5% catch rate and 83.5 passer rating) and Antonio Hamilton (66.7% catch rate and 77.8 passer rating) this week. Week 6 Positional Value: WR4

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz: Ertz is the TE15 in fantasy who has been soaking up monster volume. He has a 21.9% target share, a 20.6% air-yard share, and a 23.8% first-read share. He hasn’t been efficient in any way with this volume, though. He is fourth in raw target volume but only 19th in receiving yards and 19th in YPRR. He is fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. The Rams have been a tight-end production funnel with how good their outside corners have played. Los Angeles has given up the third-most receiving yards, second-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Ertz will post ugly TE1 numbers this week. Week 6 Positional Value: TE1

Tyler Higbee: Higbee was the clear fourth or fifth option in the passing attack last week, with an 8.1% target share, 9% TPRR, and 6.7% first-read share. Higbee is the TE19 in Fantasy with zero deep targets, and only two red zone looks. Arizona has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. This is likely not related to their defense being exceptional at defending tight ends but the fact that wide receivers soak up a ton of production against their lackluster corners weekly. Week 6 Positional Value: TE2

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL

The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans

New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

Recent News