The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -3, O/U 45
• Seahawks vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Bengals continue to be pass-happy slugs. They have the ninth-slowest neutral pace while passing at the second-highest rate.
• Seattle ranks eighth and sixth in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: Smith has been a middling QB2 this season. He has only cracked QB1 status once this season. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks ninth in passing grade, 30th in big-time throw rate, and third-best in adjusted completion rate. Smith is the QB22 in fantasy. The Bengals have fielded a stout pass defense. Cincinnati ranks 15th in yards per attempt with the ninth-lowest passer rating and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. They are 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2

Joe Burrow: Burrow is getting healthier. Prior to Week 5, his time to throw and aDOT sat at 2.23 and 6.2 as he got the ball out quickly with short passes. Those numbers weren’t wildly different last week, but they were trending in the right direction, with Burrow logging a 2.39 time to throw and a 7.1 aDOT. He also attempted three deep passes last week after only winding up deep a total of ten times in the three games prior. Last week, Burrow ranked ninth in passing grade and sixth-best in adjusted completion rate. If we remove the box score puff game against the New York Giants, Seattle would rank eighth-worst in yards per attempt and passer rating while only generating the 16th-best pressure rate. Burrow should have another strong outing in Week 6. Week 6 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker: After playing 51-63% of the snaps in Weeks 1-3, Walker had a 71% snap rate in Week 4’s blowout of New York. Walker has averaged 18 touches and 89.1 total yards as the RB7 in fantasy. He ranks 16th in snap share and 14th in opportunity share. Among 63 qualified rushers, he ranks 14th in explosive run rate, eighth-best in missed tackles forced per attempt, and ninth-best in yards after contact per attempt. Walker should run wild against the Bengals’ porous run defense. They have bled out the third-highest explosive run rate, the second-most missed tackles, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 6 Positional Value: RB1

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet remains only a stash or deep league dart throw flex. He has played 24-26% of snaps in three of four games, averaging 7.1 touches and 31.5 total yards. He has only five red zone carries this season (Walker 18) and one tote inside the five-yard line (Walker seven). Week 6 Positional Value: Stash

Joe Mixon: Mixon has played at least 75% of the snaps in four of five games. He ranks tenth in snap share and fourth in opportunity share among running backs. He is also 12th in weighted opportunities and 17th in red zone touches. Mixon has averaged 19.4 touches and 81.6 total yards. Among 63 qualified rushers, Mixon ranks 46th in explosive run rate, 43rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. His juice is gone. Mixon is now just an inefficient volume back. He faces a difficult Seattle run defense this week that has the fourth-best stuff rate and eighth-best yards after contact per attempt allowed. Seattle has held ground games to the second-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Seattle has been a reception wonderland for backs in previous seasons, but not in 2023. Seattle has faced the tenth-most targets against backs but held them to the 13th-lowest yards per reception. Week 6 Positional Value: Volume-fueled Borderline RB1

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf is the WR21 in fantasy with a 17.8% target share, a 35.4% air-yard share, and a 23.9% first-read share. Keep your expectations for Metcalf in check this week. The Bengals have defended perimeter wide receivers extremely well this season allowing the fifth-lowest PPR points per target. This year, the math has changed for Seattle when facing zone coverage (CIN 64.1% zone). Metcalf leads the receiving group with 2.63 YPRR and a 25.5% first-read share against zone, so while in the past, I have talked about Lockett owning the zone throne, that mantle has been passed to Metcalf. Metcalf will run about 82% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (85.7% catch rate and 137.8 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (52% catch rate and 81.8 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: low-end WR2

Tyler Lockett: Lockett has a 20.2% target share, a 36.5% air yard share, and a 22.4% first-read share. Against zone coverage, Lockett’s air-yard share has remained consistent with 37.0%, but his YPRR has dipped from 1.32 to 1.15, his TPRR has dropped from 22% to 20%, and his first-read share has fallen from 22.4% to 19.6%. Lockett leads the team with six red zone targets. He will run about 63% of his routes on the boundary, where the Bengals are strongest as a pass defense. Lockett will run about 65% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (85.7% catch rate and 137.8 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (52% catch rate and 81.8 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba has a 15.5% target share, 0.70 YPRR, and a 17.9% first-read share this season. None of those numbers inspire confidence, but the matchup this week against Cincinnati could push a few extra targets in his direction. While the Bengals have been elite against outside wide receivers, they are allowing the 14th-most PPR points per target to slot wide receivers (Smith-Njigba 85% slot). Mike Hilton has allowed a 55% catch rate and 80.0 passer rating in slot coverage for the Bengals. Week 6 Positional Value: WR4 with some PPR upside in Week 6

Ja’Marr Chase: After a few so-so games, Chase is back in his rightful place as a WR1 (WR7). Chase has a 30.3% target share, a 40% air-yard share, 2.32 YPRR, and a 39% first-read share. Among 126 qualifying receivers, Chase ranks third in target share, 15th in air-yard share, 23rd in YPRR, and fourth in first-read share. Seattle utilizes zone coverage at the highest rate in the league (85.7%). Against zone, Chase’s YPRR increases to 2.50, and his first-read share bumps up to 41.7%. Chase should have another legendary performance in Week 6, running about 76% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (80% catch rate and 95.4 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (72.7% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR1 overall in Week 6

Tee Higgins: Higgins was limited in practice (ribs) on Wednesday and Thursday. He practiced in full on Friday. I expect him to be a full-go this week. Higgins has a 20.5% target share, a 40.4% air-yard share, 1.02 YPRR, and a 25.7% first-read share this season. Against zone this season, Higgins has seen his target share drop to 19.0%, and his first-read share has dipped to 23.9%. Higgins is second on the team in red zone targets. Higgins will run about 84% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (80% catch rate and 95.4 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (72.7% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tyler Boyd: Boyd has been an afterthought this season as the WR58 in fantasy. He ranks outside the top 40 wide receivers in target share, TPRR, and YPRR. He will be matched up with stud corner Devon Witherspoon this Sunday (50% catch rate and 61.6 passer rating). Sit Boyd. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

Tight Ends

SEA TEs: The Seattle tight end room remains a wasteland for fantasy, with the team utilizing a three-way committee between Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly. No player handled more than a 31% route run rate or 7.7% target share.

CIN TEs: The Bengals do not have a fantasy viable tight end. Irv Smith Jr. led the group with a 52.9% route run rate in Week 5, but he failed to draw a target. He only has a 6.7% target share this season and 0.34 YPRR.

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns

• SF -9.5, O/U 36.5
• 49ers vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The 49ers’ offense is predictably 31st in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• The Browns rank 13th in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: Purdy has been balling out as the QB9 in fantasy. He is ranked second in yards per attempt, 12th in big-time throw rate, and fourth in adjusted completion rate. Purdy carved up a talented Dallas defense last week and could do the same to Cleveland this week. The Browns will keep him on his toes, though. They have held passers to the third-lowest yards per attempt, seventh-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Deshaun Watson: Watson has been ruled out (shoulder).

P.J. Walker: Walker will get the start for Watson this week. Unfortunately, he’s a must-sit in all formats. Last year, among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 35th in passing grade, 25th in yards per attempt, and 46th in adjusted completion rate. Walker had the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate last season. The 49ers have been a coffin nail for opposing quarterbacks this season. They have allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating. San Francisco has given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 6 Positional Value: Must-sit

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is the undisputed RB1 in fantasy, ranking fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and first in weighted opportunity. He ranks top-three among backs in carries, targets, and red zone touches. Among 63 qualified backs, McCaffrey ranks 25th in explosive run rate and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. He is also fourth in yards created per touch this season. McCaffrey should steamroll the Browns’ run defense. Cleveland has a menacing pass defense, but their ability to stop the run is questionable at best. They have allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, third-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 6 Positional Value: RB1 overall

Jerome Ford: You have to feel bad for Ford. After taking over as the team’s starter, he has faced a horrible list of run defenses with TEN, BAL, and now SF on deck. As the team’s lead back, he has played 56-62% of snaps, averaging 14 touches and 48 total yards. Among 63 qualified running backs, he ranks 33rd in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. The 49ers remain an elite run defense, allowing the lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-lowest yards before contact per attempt. They have held gap runs to the sixth-lowest yards per carry (Ford 56% gap). Week 6 Positional Value: RB3

Kareem Hunt: Hunt has averaged only 21% of the snaps with six touches and 23.5 total yards. He is barely worth a roster spot in all formats. Week 6 Positional Value: Droppable

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk has been on another level this season as the WR13 in Fantasy. He has garnered a 27.0% target share, a 49.1% air-yard share, and a 30.6% first-read share while producing a gawd-like 4.30 YPRR. The Browns have utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (36.9%). He’s been excellent against man coverage this season as the 49ers’ go-to weapon. Against man, Aiyuk has 3.29 YPRR, 39.5% of the team’s receiving yards, and leads the team with a 23.8% first-read share. Aiyuk has been unrecoverable this season, so I’m not fading him against the Browns this week. He will run about 76% of his routes against Denzel Ward (54.2% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (28.6% catch rate and 50.9 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR1/2

Deebo Samuel: Samuel has a 15.9% target share (third on the team), a 26.1% air-yard share, 1.45 YPRR (fourth on the team), and a 17.6% first-read share (third) against man coverage. Samuel has taken a backseat to Aiyuk and Kittle against man-heavy secondaries. Samuel has averaged 13.3 rushing yards in three meetings with man-coverage-heavy defenses this season. Considering the Browns are vulnerable to rushing, we could see Samuel get 4 to 5 carries this week in addition to the pass game work. He has two five-carry outings this season. Samuel will run about 64% of his routes against Denzel Ward (54.2% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating) and Martin Emerson (28.6% catch rate and 50.9 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside if he gets some rushing work

Amari Cooper: Cooper has a 21.7% target share, a 41.4% air-yard share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 30.1% first-read share. The 49ers utilize zone coverage on 73.5% of their coverage snaps (13th-highest). Against zone, Cooper hasn’t seen much of a bump this season. His air-yard share has increased slightly to 42.7% while his YPRR has dipped to 1.81. The 49ers have been tough on wide receivers this season, holding them to the 11th-fewest fantasy points and sixth-fewest receiving touchdowns. Cooper will run about 76% of his routes against Deommodore Lenior (72.2% catch rate and 77.4 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (60.7% catch rate and 66.2 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3

Elijah Moore: Moore has averaged 7.3 targets per game this season, but he is still searching for his first game with at least 50 receiving yards. The 49ers love their zone coverage. Against zone, Moore has an 18.0% target share and 0.90 YPRR. Moore is a must-sit this week, and he is droppable depending on your waiver wire options. Week 6 Positional Value: Must-sit

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Kittle came roaring back last week with a monster game. He is poised to stack back-to-back lovely fantasy performances this week. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 13th in target share (16.1%), fourth in YPRR (1.89), 15th in first-read share (16.5%), and fourth in fantasy points per route run. Kittle could feast again this week against the Browns man coverage. Against man this season, his target share has increased to 20.5%, his YPRR has jumped to a beautiful 2.36, and his first-read share has been a scintillating 23.5%. The only superb tight end that Cleveland has faced this season was Mark Andrews, who secured all five of his targets for 80 yards with a pair of scores. Week 6 Positional Value: Top-three TE

David Njoku: Njoku has been such a disappointment this season. He currently sits outside the top 20 tight ends in target share, target per route run rate, and YPRR. He has zero deep targets or red zone targets. On top of all of that, now his quarterback is banged up, and he faces a defense that has locked down tight ends with the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-lowest receiving yards allowed. Week 6 Positional Value: TE2

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -14, O/U 47.5
• Panthers vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Miami ranks ninth and fourth in neutral pace and passing rate.
• The Panthers have the fifth-slowest neutral pace while sitting at 16th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young: Last week was Young’s first game with higher than a QB23 finish in fantasy. Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks dead last in passing grade, dead last in yards per attempt, and he has the third-highest turnover-worthy play rate. The Dolphins’ secondary could allow him to post serviceable QB2 numbers this week. Miami has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the ninth-best adjusted completion rate. Week 6 Positional Value: low-end QB2

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa is the QB6 in fantasy this season. He ranks first in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, second-best in passer rating, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback. It doesn’t matter the format. You are never benching him. Carolina has not been a pass defense to fear. They have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate. The Panthers utilize zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate (80.9%). Tagovailoa is second in yards per attempt and ninth in fantasy points per dropback against zone coverage. Week 6 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Miles Sanders: Sanders has been ruled out (shoulder).

Chuba Hubbard: With Miles Sanders out, Hubbard should be the team’s clear leadback this week. Hubbard has been immensely productive with his work, ranking 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and tenth-best in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a run defense that has been shut down in some areas while giving in others. Miami has held backs to the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt, but they also have the lowest stuff rate in the NFL while giving up the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt. Hubbard can have a good game here, but his offensive line hasn’t done him or Sanders many favors. That could limit his upside this week. Carolina has the tenth-lowest yards before contact per attempt, and they have the seventh-lowest PFF offensive line grade. Week 6 Positional Value: RB2

Raheem Mostert: Before De’Von Achane’s ascension, Mostert averaged 73% of the snaps, 15.5 touches, and 88.5 total yards in Weeks 1-2. He was the RB18 and RB5 in those weeks. Among 63 qualified backs, he ranks seventh-best in explosive run rate, 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Mostert should carve this run defense up. The Panthers have permitted the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt while logging the third-lowest stuff rate. Mostert is a MUST START. Week 6 Positional Value: RB1

Jeff Wilson: El Jefe has been ruled out.

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen: Thielen is the WR10 in fantasy. Yes, I am as surprised as you are to read that. Among 126 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 23rd in target share (22.8%), 31st in YPRR (2.03), and 16th in first-read share. Miami utilizes zone coverage at the 12th-highest rate (74.2%) in the NFL. This season against zone, Thielen’s target share drops to 17.3% while his YPRR falls to 1.55, and his first-read share decreases to 24.7%. Thielen has only two deep targets, and two red zone targets this season. Thielen will run about 71% of his routes against Kader Kohou (85.2% catch rate and 129.9 passer rating). Miami has allowed the sixth-most PPR points to slot wide receivers. Week 6 Positional Value: WR2/3

D.J. Chark: Chark has a 12.2% target share and a 31.4% air-yard share. With his 15.3 aDOT, Chark has been the Panther’s field stretcher. Miami has held passers to the 12th-lowest passer rating, 12th-fewest deep passing yards per game, and the eighth-lowest deep adjusted completion rate. Don’t worry about Chark against teams that are good at limiting the deep ball. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

Jonathan Mingo: Against zone coverage, Mingo has had a 15.1% target share, a 28% air-yard share, and a 21.9% first-read share, but he’s only mustered 0.95 YPRR against zone. Young has only been able to support Thielen on a weekly basis for fantasy purposes. Asking him to support the third option in this passing attack is too risky at this juncture. Sit Mingo. Week 6 Positional Value: Must sit

Tyreek Hill: Hill is the WR1 in fantasy, ranking fourth among receivers in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets. Among 92 qualifying receivers, he ranks sixth in target share (28.6%), first in YPRR (5.05), third in air-yard share (46.3%), and 13th in first-read share (33.6%). Against zone coverage (CAR 80.9%), Hill has a 26.9% target share, 5.07 YPRR, a 40.7% air-yard share, and a 30.6% first read share. Hill will run about 62% of his routes against Donte Jackson (64.7% catch rate and 125.1 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (81.3% catch rate and 132.6 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR1

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle has been relatively quiet this season as the WR40 in fantasy. His highest weekly fantasy finish was last week as WR20, with 35 receiving yards and a score. He did see a season-high ten targets last week. This looks like the possible Waddle blow-up game that we’ve been waiting for. Against zone coverage, Waddle has a 19.6% target share, a 19.3% air-yard share, 2.84 YPRR, and a 20.6% first-read share. Waddle’s role in this offense is as the zone beating underneath YAC threat. Among 92 qualifying receivers, Hill ranks fifth-best in YAC per reception, but he is still behind Waddle, who is third-best behind only D.J. Moore and Nico Collins. Carolina has the fourth-most missed tackles this season. Waddle will run about 72% of his routes against Donte Jackson (64.7% catch rate and 125.1 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (81.3% catch rate and 132.6 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: low-end WR1

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst: Against zone coverage, Hurst has a 10.7% target share, a 61.6% route run rate, and 0.95 YPRR. He has also been fourth in first-read share with 13.6%. Hurst ranks tenth among tight ends with four red zone targets. Hurst again makes the TE2 matchup-based streaming option radar this week. Miami has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 6 Positional Value: Matchup-based TE2 streaming option

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAX -4, O/U 44
• Colts vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Indy ranks first in neutral pace. I don’t expect them to slow down at all with Minshew under center. In Week 3, with Minshew starting, they moved even faster at 17.9 seconds per snap than their full season neutral pace.
• The Colts had no issue letting Minshew throw more in general and in the red zone in Week 3 despite facing a strong Baltimore secondary. Their neutral pass rate increased from 53.5% to 58.3%. Indy’s red zone passing rate also jumped mightily from 39.2% to 62.5%.

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew: With Anthony Richardson sidelined, Minshew will be the Colts’ starter for the foreseeable future this season. Among 34 qualified passers, he ranks 22nd in passing grade with the third-lowest aDOT and the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate. Among that same sample, Minshew is 26th in fantasy points per dropback with the third-lowest aDOT. The Colts coaching staff has shown faith in Minshew with their increase of the neutral pace and passing rates. Even if Minshew is just asked to play point guard, he should be able to do so successfully this week. Jacksonville has been a pass funnel this season, allowing the tenth-highest yards per attempt, fifth-most passing yards and ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Minshew should be able to dink and dunk with increased efficiency this week. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most YAC and eighth-highest YAC per reception to wide receivers. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been playing extremely good football. It just hasn’t crossed over to fantasy production consistently (QB21). This week could be another ceiling performance. Lawrence was QB8 in Week 1 against this same pass defense. He ranks fifth-best in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, and highly accurate throw rate. Lawrence is also eighth-best in deep passing CPOE. Indy has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game, eighth-most yards per attempt, and the fourth-most passing yards per game to quarterbacks. Week 6 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Week 5

https://twitter.com/HolderStephen/status/1712127892803490112

Jonathan Taylor: In Taylor’s first game back, he played 15% of the snaps with seven touches and 34 total yards. He had a 17% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 2.67 yards after contact per attempt. None of these numbers are eye-popping, but it’s an incredibly small sample. The Colts have stated they will ramp up Taylor’s workload this week, but I don’t see that being more than maybe 40-50% of the snaps and work this week. Jacksonville remains a pass funnel. Their run defense has been incredibly strong, ranking eighth-best in explosive run rate, fifth-best in stuff rate, and second-best in yards after contact per attempt allowed. Indy should prioritize moving the ball through the air in Week 6. Week 6 Positional Value: RB3/4

Zack Moss: Last week, Moss exploded with 25 touches and 195 total yards while playing 80% of the snaps. The snap share will decrease this week, but it’s fair to question how much. I don’t see Taylor pushing for 60-70% of the snaps this week, and honesty, 50% of the snaps would surprise me. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks 31st in explosive run rate, 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have shut down zone runs with the third-lowest yards per carry and second-lowest success rate allowed (Moss 79.8% zone). Week 6 Positional Value: RB3

Travis Etienne: Etienne is the RB7 in fantasy, averaging 22.6 touches and 108 total yards per game. He has been fantastic, ranking fifth in snap share, eighth in opportunity share, and sixth in weighted opportunity. Etienne is second in carries, eighth in targets, and 15th in target share among running backs. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks 21st in yards after contact per attempt and 32nd in explosive run rate. His offensive line hasn’t done him many favors, as they rank eight-worst in yards before contact per attempt. Etienne has had to make it happen on his own, as he is seventh-best in yards created. Indy has held rushers to the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-lowest yards per carry on gap runs (Etienne 50.5% gap). Etienne will have to compensate for rushing inefficiency this week with pass game usage. Indy has given up the ninth-highest yards per reception and ninth-most receiving yards to running backs. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline RB1

Tank Bigsby: Bigsby hasn’t touched the ball more than three times or played more than 19% of snaps since Week 1. He is a low-end stash only. Week 6 Positional Value: Stash-only

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Pittman has a 26.9% target share, a 29.2% air yard share, and a 34.2% first-read share. In Minshew’s one full start, Pittman’s numbers remained consistent, with a 25% target share and a 31.3% first-read share. Pittman is the WR25 this season, but he’s been underperforming compared to his WR16 ranking in expected fantasy points per game. He ranks 12th in red zone targets among wide receivers. This is a great spot for Pittman to enjoy some positive regression. The Jaguars deploy zone coverage (78.6%) at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. Pittman has seen his target share increase to 29.4%, and his first-read share balloon to 40.5% against zone coverage. Pittman will run about 72% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (65.4% catch rate and 106.7 passer rating) and Darious Williams (67.7% catch rate and 72.8 passer rating). Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to outside wide receivers this season. Week 6 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside in Week 6

Josh Downs: Downs has an 18.6% target share and 17.5% first-read share with 1.86 YPRR. He is second on the team in red zone targets (three), but he hasn’t seen a look inside the 20-yard line since Week 2. Downs has two top 36 wide receiver finishes this year (WR32, WR18) and could post a third one for the season this week. He will run about 87% of his routes against Tre Herndon (84.2% catch rate and 147.4 passer rating), who has been a turnstile in slot coverage. Jacksonville has bled out the sixth-highest passer rating to slot wide receivers this season. Week 6 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside in Week 6

Calvin Ridley: Ridley is the WR25 in Fantasy with a 19.1% target share, a 35.7% air-yard share, and 1.95 YPRR. Ridley cooked this secondary with a 34.4% target share, a 48.6% air-yard share, and a 35% first-read share in Week 1. After that game, Ridley’s first read share dipped heavily with 9.1-22.6% weekly until Week 5, where he bounced back with 35.0%. Ridley should crush the Colts’ perimeter corners again in Week 6. Ridley will run about 85% against Juju Brents (73.3% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (both targets in his coverage have been secured). Indy has allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target to outside wide receivers this season. Week 6 Positional Value: WR1

Christian Kirk: Kirk has a 22.4% target share and a 24.7% air-yard share with 1.95 YPRR. He is the WR24 in Fantasy, but he has only seen one red zone target so far. This game sets up as a Ridley explosion week. Kirk will run about 71% of his routes against Kenny Moore (76.9% catch rate and 78.7 passer rating). The Colts have surrendered the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Week 6 Positional Value: WR2/3

Zay Jones: Jones has been ruled out (knee).

Tight Ends

Kylen Granson: Granson leads all Indy tight ends with a 54.5% route run rate and 13.2% target share. He is tied for second on the team with three red zone targets. Granson is a low-end matchup-based streamer. Jacksonville has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 6 Positional Value: TE2 Matchup-based streaming option

Evan Engram: Engram is the TE8, commanding a 19.1% target share and a 21.4% first-read share. He ranks 11th in receiving grade and 13th in YPRR. The biggest worry for Engram is touchdown equity. He hasn’t scored yet this season and has zero red-zone targets. Indy hasn’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season, but they have surrendered the eighth-most receptions and receiving yards to the position. Week 6 Positional Value: TE1

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC