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The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The hits keep on coming. Just when you thought it was safe to set your lineups with your stud players in fantasy this week, the injury gawds took a juicy bite out of our fantasy rosters with Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, and James Conner all succumbing to ailments. Injuries suck and are unfortunately part of the game. There’s no way around it.

Battered, bruised, weary, and mentally broken, we press on. Welcome to Week 6.

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

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DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Baltimore has deployed the 2022 Eagles offensive approach as they are running an uptempo but run-heavy offense. Since Week 3, Baltimore ranks tenth in neutral pace with the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • The Titans remain slow as molasses (32nd in neutral pace) and run-balanced (15th in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Jackson has authored a resurgent season to this point that would be even better if his receivers could catch the ball. He has had to deal with the fifth-most drops in the NFL this season. Despite the butter fingers by his receivers, Jackson ranks second in passing grade, 13th in yards per attempt, fourth in big-time throw rate, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback. Jackson should have a field day against the Titans this week. Tennessee has allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt and fifth-highest passer rating to quarterbacks. They have also surrendered the 11th-highest passer rating and 14th-highest CPOE to deep balls. Jackson ranks 11th in deep ball rate and fifth in deep passing grade. Week 6 Positional Value: High-end QB1

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill has been hard to watch this year. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fourth-worst in passer rating, seventh-worst in adjusted completion rate, and 20th in highly accurate throw rate. Among the same sample of quarterbacks, he has the eighth-lowest fantasy points per dropback. Tannehill will struggle again this week against a formidable Baltimore pass defense. Baltimore has held passers to the lowest yards per attempt, third-lowest passer rating, and the second-fewest fantasy points per game. Sit Tannehill if possible. Week 6 Positional Value: Basement-level QB2

Running Backs

Week 4

Player Rushing attempts Targets Routes RZ opportunities
Gus Edwards 12 0 11 1
Justice Hill 7 4 17 3

Gus Edwards: Edwards has been the early down grinder for Baltimore. He’s played 43-44% of the snaps in three of five games this season. He is averaging 11.6 touches and 48.4 total yards this season with only three targets. Edwards has not been efficient with his touches this season. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 41st in yards after contact per attempt. Yes, Zack Moss ran through this run defense last week, but that is an outlier looking at the full-season stats. Tennessee has allowed the third-lowest explosive run rate while having the tenth-highest stuff rate. They have held backs to the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Tennessee has allowed the third-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Edwards 62.5% gap). Week 6 Positional Value: RB4

Justice Hill: In Hill’s two healthiest games this season, he has played between 56-57% of the snaps, averaging 12.5 touches and 49 total yards. Hill will also face tough sledding against the Titans’ run defense this week. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks 37th in explosive run rate and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Hill will also be stifled on his gap runs (58.6%) this week against a team that has held gap backs to the ninth-lowest success rate. Week 6 Positional Value: RB4

Derrick Henry: Henry has been extremely game-script-sensitive this season. He is the RB19 in fantasy, averaging 19 touches and 85.8 total yards. Despite the less-than-stellar consistency from Henry, he doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Among 63 qualifying backs, he is 19th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. With a close spread, Henry could be fed volume this week, but don’t expect a pretty stat line. Baltimore ranks 16th in explosive run rate while holding backs at bay with the seventh-highest stuff rate and the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline RB1/High-end RB2

Tyjae Spears: Spears is a stone-cold baller. If you have the bench space, ROSTER HIM NOW! If anything happens to Henry, Spears would be a plug-and-play top 15 back weekly. Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks third-best in explosive run rate, sixth in yards after contact per attempt, and seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt. Okay, since we covered the great with Spears, we have to mention the bad. He has played at least 52% of the snaps in four of five games, but he has only seen double-digit touches twice. Spears has averaged 8.2 touches and 43.8 total yards. Baltimore has held backs to the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-lowest yards per carry on gap runs (Spears 48% gap). Week 6 Positional Value: RB3/4

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers: Flowers has a 27.3% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, and a whopping 30.8% first-read share. Among 112 qualified wide receivers, he ranks ninth in target share and 17th in first-read share. Flowers is the WR36 in fantasy, which can be traced to the fact that despite the heavy volume, he hasn’t scored yet. Flowers is the WR23 in expected fantasy points per game. If Jackson attacks deep this week, it will be with Flowers, who leads the team with eight deep targets. Flowers will run about 70% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (69.6% catch rate and 102.4 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (77.8% catch rate and 137.3 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2/3

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. returned last week to a 62.2% route run clip with a 10.5% target share and a 12.2% air-yard share. Overall, this season, he has only an 11.8% target share and a 15.8% air-yard share. Beckham Jr. has limped to 1.04 YPRR with a 13.9% first-read share. Beckham Jr. will run about 94% of his routes against Murphy-Bunting and Fulton. Week 6 Positional Value: WR4/5

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins is the WR37 in fantasy that’s been seeing monster market share numbers. Among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Hopkins ranks seventh in target share (28.5%), ninth in air-yard share (42.5%), and 15th in YPRR (2.72). Hopkins has been impressive this season, especially when you factor in Tannehill’s lackluster play. The Ravens have utilized zone coverage on 67.3% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Hopkins has a 27.4% target share, a 45.6% air-yard share, and 2.39 YPRR. Hopkins will run about 74% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (83.3% catch rate and 151.4 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (68.3% catch rate and 78.2 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3

Treylon Burks: Burks has been ruled out. 

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Andrews has a 23.1% target share, an 18.3% air-yard share, 1.77 YPRR, and a 21.3% first-read share. Among 39 qualified tight ends, Andrews ranks second in target share, eighth in YPRR, and seventh in first-read share. Against zone coverage (TEN 68.7% zone), Andrews’ first-read share has seen a small uptick to 23.1%. Tennessee has faced the fifth-fewest tight end targets this season while ranking 15th in yards per reception allowed to the position. Week 6 Positional Value: TE1

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Okonkwo has been a colossal disappointment in fantasy football. Among 39 qualified tight ends, he ranks 15th in target share (14.6%), 28th in YPRR (0.99), 18th in first-read share (15.4%), and 29th in fantasy points per route run. The volume hasn’t been amazing, but he is 19th in raw target volume at the position. The bigger problem is that he hasn’t shown any flashes of the efficiency monster of 2022. Okonkwo is a must-sit this week. Baltimore has crushed tight ends. They have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Week 6 Positional Value: Must-sit

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Washington has the sixth-slowest neutral pace while bolstering the 12th-best neutral passing rate.
  • Since Week 3, Atlanta has remained a slow-paced team (8th-slowest), but their passing rate has shown some life (23rd in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Sam Howell: Howell has been a passing volume monster this season. He is quietly fourth in passing attempts and sixth in passing yards as the Commanders have been forced into pass-heavy scripts with their defense struggling. Howell has been impressive in spurts with the seventh-best highly accurate throw rate. This hasn’t translated to consistent passing success, though, as he is also 15th in yards per attempt and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Atlanta has fielded a strong pass defense and pass rush this season. They have held passer to the sixth-lowest yards per attempt and 11th-lowest adjusted completion rate while ranking 15th in passer rating allowed. Atlanta is 11th in pressure rate, facing an offensive line that can’t protect Howell. Howell has faced the sixth-highest pressure rate while leading all quarterbacks in sacks taken. Howell has wilted when pressure, ranking tenth-worst in pressured yards per attempt and sixth-lowest in pressured fantasy points per dropback. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2

Desmond Ridder: Don’t let one standout game from Ridder let you forget that he’s been barely playable this season. Ridder is the QB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranks 19th in yards per attempt, 24th in passer rating, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. Washington has not been a great defense this season, but the main cause of their issues has been their struggles against the deep ball. Against passes 0-19 yards, they rank 15th in passer rating, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and 17th in passing touchdowns. They are a middle-of-the-road defense against all passes not named deep ball. Washington has allowed the most passing yards per game and 60% of their passing touchdowns to deep passes. It’s fair to wonder if Ridder can take advantage of that. After five weeks, Ridder has the tenth-lowest deep passing grade and the ninth-lowest deep passer rating. If we take his standout Week 5 performance out of the equation, he has the second-worst deep passing grade and the eighth-worst deep passer rating. Ridder is a run-of-the-mill QB2. Week 6 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Brian Robinson: Robinson is the RB17 in fantasy. His massive Week 2 performance is aiding that standing among running backs because outside of that game, he has been fairly mediocre. If you take that one week out of the equation, Robinson has averaged 14 touches and 57.5 total yards with zero games over 70 total yards. Among 63 qualified running backs, he is 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. The Falcons should be able to hold him in check. Atlanta has the 11th-best stuff rate while ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt. They have held zone runner (Robinson 65.7% zone) to the 11th-lowest yards per carry. Week 6 Positional Value: RB3

Antonio Gibson: Gibson’s snap share has varied widely from 35-61% of snaps weekly. He has averaged five touches and 37.2 total yards per game. Gibson has three or fewer targets in three of five games. He’s the RB53 in fantasy points per game. His best avenue for a fantasy-relevant game weekly comes via the passing game. The Falcons should be able to hold him at bay this week. Atlanta has held backs to the 13th-lowest yards per reception and the lowest receiving yards in the NFL. Week 6 Positional Value: RB4

Week 5 (per Fantasy Points Data)

Player Rushing attempts Targets Routes RZ opportunities
Bijan Robinson 14 2 18 0
Tyler Allgeier 17 0 5 1
Cordarrelle Patterson 0 1 5 0

Bijan Robinson: Robinson is coming off a disappointing week against the Texans, where he only managed 58 total yards on 16 touches. Robinson also handled his lowest route run rate (46.2%) and snap share (61%) of the season. In the previous four weeks, Robinson had a 69.4-77.3% route run rate and at least 63% of the snaps (72-81% in Weeks 2-4). Among 63 qualifying backs, he ranks 16th in explosive run rate and fifth-best in missed tackles forced per attempt. The snap share for Robinson and losing routes to not only Allgeier but now Cordarrelle Patterson as well are concerns, but he is still the clear lead back for ATL. Washington’s issues against passing have been well documented, but their problems with stopping the run have gone overlooked. The Commanders have allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate while having the fifth-worst stuff rate and fourth-highest yards before contact allowed. Washington has given up the 12th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Robinson 64.2% zone). This is a big bounceback spot for Robinson. Week 6 Positional Value: RB1

Tyler Allgeier: Allgeier has seen at least 15 rushing attempts in three of his five games, and he could make it a fourth time in Week 6. It doesn’t make any sense, but Allgeier has outcarried Robinson in the red zone ten to five. The matchup, volume upside, and touchdown equity in the Falcon’s offense all set up nicely for Allgeier to outpace expectations in Week 6. He is a strong flex play that could walk away with RB2 production. Week 6 Positional Value: Flex with RB2 upside

Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR31 in fantasy, but outside of his Week 4 showing as the WR8, you’ve probably been pretty sad about his fantasy output. Overall, he has only seen a 16.2% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, and a 23.3.% first-read share with 1.40 YPRR. He has been held before 60 receiving yards in four of five games and could make it a fifth in Week 6. A.J. Terrell (59.1% catch rate and 90.3 passer rating) could shadow him this week, but even if he doesn’t follow him, McLaurin will run at least 44% of his routes against Terrell. Terell has followed receivers on 53-86% of their routes in four games this season. In that sample, no receiver has managed more than 38 receiving yards in his primary coverage. Atlanta has utilized man coverage at the night-highest rate this season and the sixth-highest rate (34.3%) over the last two weeks. Against man coverage, McLaurin’s target share has increased to 17.8%, and his first-read share has climbed to 26.7%. Week 6 Positional Value: WR3/4

Jahan Dotson: Dotson has been a ghost for most of this season. He has a 14.7% target share, an 18.3% first-read share, and a woeful 0.72 YPRR. Against man coverage, his target share drops to 8.9%, and his first-read share falls to 13.3%. Dotson is droppable, but if you have him on your roster, he is a must-sit this week. He will run about 55% of his routes against Terrell (59.1% catch rate and 90.3 passer rating) and Jeff Okudah (50% catch rate and 80.2 passer rating) if Terrell doesn’t shadow McLaurin. If he does, he will see plenty of Okudah in Week 6. Week 6 Positional Value: Droppable/Must-sit

Curtis Samuel: Over the last two games, Samuel has averaged 7.5 targets (16.3% target share) with 1.53 YPRR and a 19.3% first-read share. He could see another busy day against Atlanta with how these corner matchups stack up. Samuel will run about 72% of his routes against Dee Alford (72.7% catch rate and 110.3 passer rating) in the slot. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-highest PRR points per target to slot wide receivers. Week 6 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2/3 upside

Drake London: Since Week 2, London has averaged 7.5 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 51 receiving yards. While I wish London were fed the weekly volume he deserves, his production over the last four games has been good enough for WR31 in fantasy. Over his last four games, London has a 21.6% target share, a 30.5% air-yard share, 1.47 YPRR, and a 25.5% first-read share. He has led the team in that stretch with four end-zone targets. If Ridder does attack the Commanders, deep London will be part of the gameplan. He is tied for the team lead in deep targets (six). London will run about 82% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (55.6% catch rate and 88.0 passer rating) and Emmanuel Forbes (74.1% catch rate and 125.2 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas: After last week’s monster game, Thomas is the TE6 in fantasy. In the three full games he has played, he has commanded a 17.1% target share and 17.7% first-read share with 1.48 YPRR. Thomas is tied for the team lead with four red zone targets. The Falcons are a wonderful matchup for Thomas to get fed against in Week 6. Atlanta has surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards and the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 6 Positional Value: TE1

Kyle Pitts: Since Week 2, Pitts has had a 20.5% target share, a 30.4% air-yard share, 1.27 YPRR, and a 23.5% first-read share (third-best). Last week was Pitts’ first game, surpassing 50 receiving yards. Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come for a player who has not looked like he’s 100% if you turn on the tape. Pitts is third on the team in deep targets. If Ridder does attack this pass defense deep, he should be involved. Pitts is tied with Jonnu Smith and Robinson for second on the team in red zone targets. Washington has allowed the tenth-fewest fantasy points and only one receiving touchdown to tight ends. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Jonnu Smith: Smith has been operating as Atlanta’s WR3 since Week 2. Since that week, he has a 64.2% route run rate, an 18.7% target share, and a 22.4% first-read share. Over the last four weeks among 36 qualifying tight ends, Smith ranks tenth in target share, second in receiving yards per game, second in YPRR, and fifth in first read share. Since Week 2, Smith has been the TE10 in fantasy. We need to put more respect on his name because he has been balling out. The biggest issue with trusting Smith this week is that the matchup is brutal for tight ends. Washington has allowed the fourth-lowest receiving yards and third-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Over the last two weeks, Chicago has operated at the tenth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 16th in neutral passing rate.
  • Chicago ranks eighth in red zone passing rate.
  • Minnesota ranks third in neutral pace and leads the NFL in neutral passing rate. We’ll see if those rates hold this week with Justin Jefferson out.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: Cousins is the QB6 in fantasy, ranking 11th in passing grade and yards per attempt. He is also 13th in adjusted completion rate and fantasy points per dropback. Cousins’ weekly ceiling could be hindered moving forward for as long as Justin Jefferson is sidelined, but he should flirt with QB1 numbers this week against the Bears. Chicago has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt, second-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest adjusted completion rate. The Bears have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 6 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Justin Fields: Just like that, Fields is now the QB5 in fantasy. Amazing what back-to-back top-three weekly fantasy finishes (QB3, QB1) can do for your fantasy value. Over the last two weeks among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Fields has been everything I thought he could be this season. He ranks third in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and eighth in highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate. It has been beautiful to watch Fields absolutely crush. Minnesota has fielded a pitiful pass defense that loves to blitz this season. The Vikings have given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They also have surrendered the third-highest passer rating and second-highest adjusted completion rate. Minnesota has blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL despite ranking 21st in pressure rate. Fields is eighth-best in yards per attempt and 11th-best in passer rating against the blitz. Crush Fields. Crush. Have yourself another day and silence the haters and the doubters. Week 6 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison: Last week, Mattison played a season-low 51% of the snaps. He finished with ten touches and 46 total yards. This was a sizable departure from the 69-80% of snaps he had played in the two previous weeks while averaging 21.5 touches and 111.6 total yards. Among 63 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Mattison is headed for another down week against a surprisingly good Bears run defense. They have held rushers to the tenth-lowest explosive run rate while having the sixth-highest stuff rate. Chicago has contained backs with the tenth-lowest yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Mattison 62.5% zone). Week 6 Positional Value: RB2/3

Cam Akers: Akers is a stash only. He has played only 29% of the snaps in each game, averaging seven touches and 34.5 total yards. Week 6 Positional Value: Stash only

Roschon Johnson: Johnson has been ruled out (concussion).

D’Onta Foreman: Khalil Herbert has been placed on the IR. Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer will be out this week. This is Foreman’s backfield in Week 6, but I do expect Darrynton Evans to spell him some. Foreman has only been active for one game this week. He played 28% of the snaps with seven touches and 24 total yards. Last year, among 42 qualifying backs, Foreman was 12th in explosive run rate and 11th-best in yards after contact per attempt. Minnesota has been a tough run defense, but there’s an avenue for Foreman to walk away from Week 6 with a nice stat line. The Vikings have been beastly, holding rushers to the second-lowest explosive run rate and seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Their run defense splits have been huge with consideration of zone and gap runs, though. They have allowed the 14th-highest zone yards per carry (4.1) while holding backs to the lowest yards per carry in the NFL when utilizing gap runs (2.1). The Bears have leaned on zone runs more this year (43.3%), but Foreman was 58% gap last season. He did rank 15th out of 42 qualifying backs in yards per carry on zone runs (4.57) last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Week 6 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Wide Receivers

Jordan Addison: In Week 5, Addison still only had a 66% route run rate, although he did see a 19.1% target share and a 33.2% air-yard share while producing 1.94 YPRR (18.8% first-read share). With Jefferson out, I expect T.J. Hockenson to lead this team in targets most weeks, but Addison is also in the mix for that weekly crown. Overall, this season, Addison has a 13.7% target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. The Bears utilize zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (81%), which will be a big boost for Addison this week. Against zone, his YPRR jumps from 1.65 to 2.06, and his fantasy pointer per route run increases from 0.41 to 0.46. Among 71 qualifying receivers with at least 75 routes against zone coverage this season, Addison ranks 22nd in YPRR and 15th in fantasy points per route run (immediately behind D.J. Moore). Addison will run about 75% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (41.7% catch rate and 62.2 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (74.1% catch rate and 139.6 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR2

K.J. Osborn: If you’re looking for Osborn to make a huge jump with Jefferson out of the lineup, you’ll probably be quite sad this Sunday. Over the last three seasons, Osborn has been the WR57, WR51, and WR46 in fantasy. He’s a better NFL player than a fantasy asset. He has been playing a full-time role all season, which has amounted to a 12.3% target share, a 15.4% air-yard share, 0.89 YPRR, and a minuscule 9.8% first-read share. I don’t see Osborn morphing into someone who can help carry a passing attack. The Bears’ zone coverage heavy approach sadly won’t do him many favors either. Among 71 qualifying receivers against zone coverage, Osborn ranks 64th in YPRR (0.77) and 60th in fantasy points per route run. Osborn will run about 55% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (41.7% catch rate and 62.2 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (74.1% catch rate and 139.6 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR4/5

D.J. Moore: Don’t look now, but Moore has three 100-yard receiving games out of five contests this season. Among 92 qualifying receivers, Moore ranks 23rd in target share (22.4%), sixth in air-yard share (44.3%), sixth in YPRR, and sixth in first-read share. He is currently the WR6 in Fantasy. Moore ranks sixth in deep targets and 14th (tied) in end zone targets. The Vikings don’t have a corner that can hang with Moore. Moore will run about 85% of his routes against Akayleb Evans (69.6% catch rate and 122.4 passer rating) and Mekhi Blackmon (75% catch rate and 126.0 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR1

Darnell Mooney: Mooney has only managed a 9.9% target share, a 17.3% air-yard share, and a 13.5% first-read share. Moore has dominated deep targets with 13, but Mooney is second on the team with four. Mooney could be headed for a nice game in Week 6. Minnesota has allowed the third-most deep passing yards, the seventh-highest deep passer rating, and the 12th-highest deep adjusted completion rate. Mooney might only need one or two deep targets to pay off this weekend. Mooney will run about 69% of his routes against either Byron Murphy (79.3% catch rate and 141.4 passer rating) or Josh Metellus (92.3% catch rate and 110.9 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR5 with WR3 upside

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE4 in fantasy. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he ranks eighth in target share (19.1%), tenth in YPRR (1.54), and fifth in first-read share. Hockenson is third in red zone targets and 20th in YAC per reception. The Bears have held tight ends to the ninth-lowest yards per reception while still giving up the tenth-most receiving yards and the fourth-most receptions. Cousins will pepper him this week. Week 6 Positional Value: Top-shelf TE1

Cole Kmet: Kmet is putting together a breakout season as the TE5 in fantasy. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he is ninth in target share, 13th in YAC per reception, sixth in YPRR, and fourth in expected fantasy points per route run. Kmet faces a Minnesota pass defense that has held tight ends to the ninth-fewest receiving yards and lowest yards per reception but has also allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns. Kmet is 12th in red zone targets among tight ends. The matchup isn’t great, but if he scores this week, he’ll be a top-12 option again. Week 6 Positional Value: TE1

DEN vs. KC | BAL vs. TEN | WAS vs. ATL | MIN vs. CHI | SEA vs. CIN | SF vs. CLE | CAR vs. MIA | IND vs. JAC | NO vs. HOU | NE vs. LV | DET vs. TB | ARI vs. LAR | PHI vs. NYJ | NYG vs. BUF | DAL vs. LAC

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