The Primer: Week 5 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -3.5, O/U 45
• Cowboys vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Mike McCarthy’s dream scenario has come true. Dallas has the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• This game will be disgustingly slow. The 49ers are dead last in neutral pace and have the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Prescott is the QB24 in fantasy points per game. He has not finished higher than QB17 in weekly scoring this season. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt, first in adjusted completion rate, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. With his 5.9 aDOT (second-lowest), the Cowboys are asking him just to manage games. Prescott likely finishes with another muted stat line this week against a 49ers’ secondary that has held passers to the second-lowest yards per attempt, fifth-lowest passer rating, and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game. Week 5 Positional Value: low-end QB2

Brock Purdy: Purdy is the QB13 in fantasy. He is second in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, and fourth in fantasy points per dropback. Since losing Trevon Diggs, Dallas has allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt, but that’s the only dent in the armor. They have also held passers to the 11th-lowest adjusted completion rate and the eighth-lowest passer rating. Dallas is tied with Baltimore for the most dropbacks defended in man coverage this season. Against man coverage, Purdy ranks eighth in yards per attempt and passer rating while sitting with the ninth-highest fantasy points per dropback. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Tony Pollard: Pollard is the RB10 in fantasy and the RB4 in expected fantasy points per game. He is 13th in snap share, 18th in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities. While he ranks first in red zone touches, he only has two touchdowns this season. That will change as we move along through the season. Among 58 qualifying running backs, he ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard has a terrible matchup this week with a 49ers’ run defense that has held backs to the second-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-lowest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (Pollard 63% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: Volume-based RB1

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is the RB1 in fantasy, ranking fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and first in weighted opportunity. He is also second in red zone touches and eighth in fantasy points per opportunity. McCaffrey is matchup-proof. Yes, he ranks first in rushing yards, but he’s also sixth in targets and second in target share. Dallas has permitted the sixth-highest explosive run rate while sitting at 16th in stuff rate. Week 5 Positional Value: RB1 overall

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb is the WR16 in fantasy. Lamb has a 21.6% target share and a 31.6% air-yard share. He is 19th in receiving grade and 17th in YPRR. The 49ers’ corners operate in zone coverage on 69-70% of their coverage snaps. Against zone, Lamb has a 22.4% target share, a 23.4% air yard share, and a 21.8% first-read share. Lamb will run about 72% of his routes against Isaiah Oliver (75% catch rate and 62.9 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR2

Brandin Cooks: In this limited passing volume offense, Cooks has only a 14.9% target share that has amounted to only five targets per game. His air yard share is only 19.4%, and he has 0.85 YPRR. In a tough matchup in what could be a slow-paced game, Cooks is a must-sit. Week 5 Positional Value: Must-sit

Michael Gallup: Gallup has a 12.2% target share and an 18.9% air-yard share. Like Cooks, this slow and run-heavy offensive approach has neutered Gallup’s volume (4.2 targets per game). Gallup has finished as the WR27 and WR34 in the last two games, but in Weeks 1-2, he was WR94 and WR113. This week’s game likely leaves Gallup closer to his production in the first two weeks of the season. Week 5 Positional Value: Must-sit

Deebo Samuel: Last week, Samuel had an 81% route run rate, but he was possibly in a decoy role as he drew zero targets. Samuel has not played in a game without a single target since Week 14 of the 2020 season. This week his practice reports have improved. He didn’t practice at all last week, but in preparation for Week 5 he was limited all week before upgrading to a full session on Friday. With the Cowboy’s love of man coverage, this game doesn’t set up as a Samuel smash outing. Against man coverage, Samuel has a 17.9% target share, a 27.6% air yard share, and a 20.0% first-read share (third on the team). Samuel will run about 64% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (45% catch rate and 86.9 passer rating) and DaRon Bland (55.6% catch rate and 34.5 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: low-end WR2/high-end WR3

Brandon Aiyuk: This game sets up extremely well for Aiyuk to crush yet again. Aiyuk is the WR9 in Fantasy. Dallas loves man coverage, but hey, so does Aiyuk. Against man, Aiyuk has a 28.6% target share, a 39.0% air-yard share, and 3.76 YPRR. He has four deep targets and four red-zone looks. Aiyuk will run about 75% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (45% catch rate and 86.9 passer rating) and DaRon Bland (55.6% catch rate and 34.5 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is walking a tightrope. He is the TE8 in fantasy with an 18.5% target share (eighth-best) and 30.5% TPRR (second-best). These metrics are insane, considering that he is also 31st in routes run and 32nd in route participation. Ferguson also leads all tight ends with 11 red zone targets. His playing time is mediocre, but when he’s on the field, his usage is elite. I’ll make the bet that Ferguson’s high-wire act gets crushed this week against a 49ers’ defense that has limited tight ends to the sixth-fewest receiving yards and the fifth-lowest yards per reception. Week 5 Positional Value: TE2

George Kittle: Kittle is the TE14, but his fantasy standing is being buoyed by one good game. In Week 3, Kittle had seven receptions and 90 receiving yards to finish the week as the TE3. In his other three games, he hasn’t managed more than 30 receiving yards or better than TE26 on the week. This week could lead to another Kittle spike game, though. Against man coverage, Kittle ranks second on the team with a 20.5% target share and 23.3% first-read share. If Samuel is still in decoy mode, Kittle could eat this week alongside Aiyuk. Week 5 Positional Value: TE1

CHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. BUF | HOU vs. ATL | CAR vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | NYG vs. MIA | NO vs. NE | BAL vs. PIT | PHI vs. LAR | CIN vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DEN | KC vs. MIN | DAL vs. SF | GB vs. LV

Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• GB -2, O/U 44.5
• Packers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Green Bay is evolving. They are tenth and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate.
• The Raiders are 18th in neutral pace with the sixth-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of his four games (QB3, QB6, QB12). He is a much better fantasy option than real life quarterback. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and 35th in adjusted completion rate. His combination of downfield passing (first in air yards per attempt) and rushing has propelled him to nice fantasy days. Love is 12th in carries, 13th in rushing yards, and fifth in rushing scores among quarterbacks. Love could be a QB1 again this week. The Raiders pass defense is a pushover. They have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, fourth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo has been cleared of concussion protocol and will start in Week 5. He ranks 16th in passing grade, 25th in adjusted completion rate, and 18th in fantasy points per dropback. He faces a stingy Packers’ pass defense that’s 19th in yards per attempt with the 13th-lowest passer rating and 12th-fewest fantasy points per game (tied) allowed. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline QB2

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones only played 35% of the snaps last week, with six touches and 14 total yards. We also need to remember that the score was 27-3 by halftime, so the blowout nature of that game could have also factored into his playing time. I expect his workload to get ramped up this week. We have seen so little of Jones this season that it’s easy to toss his efficiency metrics in the trash. If healthy, Jones should have a banner day against Las Vegas. The Raiders have given up the 12th-highest explosive run rate, 11th-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, and sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 5 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

A.J. Dillon: Dillon has averaged 11.8 touches and 35.8 total yards with no weekly finish higher than RB33. Dillon is droppable at this point, with Jones’ health on the rise. Week 5 Positional Value: Droppable

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB17 in fantasy points per game, averaging 20 touches and 84.8 total yards. Jacobs is pulling off a fantastic Leonard Fournette impression this year as he volumes his way to decency in fantasy. Jacobs is sixth in snap share, fifth in opportunity share, and second in weighted opportunity. He also ranks ninth in red zone touches. Jacobs has been woefully inefficient. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 45th in explosive run rate and 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Green Bay should allow for a good day for Jacobs. The Packers have the seventh-lowest stuff rate, the tenth-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the 13th-highest yards per carry given up to gap runs (Jacobs 67% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: low-end RB1

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: Watson only handled a 43.9% route run rate and 11.1% target share last week. Watson was limited all week as he still works his way back from the hamstring injury. The Packers are historically conservative with players coming off injuries. I expect Watson to be still limited this week and not playing full-time snaps. Watson is a volatile WR3 who will run about 77% of his routes against David Long Jr. (60% catch rate and 66.3 passer rating) and Marcus Peters (70% catch rate and 112.1 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: risky WR3

Romeo Doubs: Doubs leads the wide receivers in route run rate with 76.7%. He has a 24.4% target share, a 29.9% air yard share, and 2.00 YPRR. He is the WR18 in fantasy, ranking seventh in red zone targets and 23rd in deep targets. Doubs will run about 81% of his routes against David Long Jr. (60% catch rate and 66.3 passer rating) and Marcus Peters (70% catch rate and 112.1 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR3

Jayden Reed: Reed has a 63.7% route run rate as the Packers starting slot receiver. He has drawn an 18.3% target share, a 24.6% air yard share, and a 22.8% first-read share (second on the team). Reed is a high-value usage machine. He ranks seventh in deep targets and second in red zone targets. Week 5 Positional Value: WR4

Davante Adams: Adams managed a limited practice on Saturday and has been listed as questionable. I expect him to play. Adams is the WR6 in fantasy. He is first in target share and TPRR while ranking second in raw target volume. He ranks first in red zone targets and 14th in deep targets. Green Bay loves their zone coverage. Against zone, Adams has a 34.1% target share and 51.8% air-yard share, with a mind-blowing 52.9% first-read share. Adams will run about 85% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (61.9% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Corey Ballentine (66.7% catch rate and 92.4 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR1

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has seen a 24.5% target share (21st) and a 29.4% air-yard share (32nd). Meyers is the WR14 in fantasy with five red zone targets (12th-most). Every Green Bay corner has been utilized in zone on at least 58% of their coverage snaps. Against zone, Meyers has an 18.1% target share, a 26.0% air yard share (1.86 YPRR), and a 23.9% first-read share. Meyers will run about 77% of his routes against Douglas and Ballentine. Week 5 Positional Value: WR3/4

Tight Ends

Luke Musgrave: Musgrave has cleared concussion protocol and will start in Week 5. Musgrave has a 15.8% target share, a 16.5% air-yard share, 1.55 YPRR, and a 16.2% first read share in full games played. Musgrave is third on the team with three red zone targets. The Raiders have faced the 12th-most tight end targets this season, holding the position to 21st in receiving yards and the eighth-lowest yards per reception. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

CHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. BUF | HOU vs. ATL | CAR vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | NYG vs. MIA | NO vs. NE | BAL vs. PIT | PHI vs. LAR | CIN vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DEN | KC vs. MIN | DAL vs. SF | GB vs. LV

Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -5.5, O/U 44.5
• Bears vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Chicago remains slow and run heavy. The Bears have the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Sam Howell leads the Commanders’ slow-and-throw attack. They have the fifth-slowest neutral pace while rocking the 11th-highest neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields: Fields had an immaculate game last week. He ranked third in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate. Yes, I’m well aware, boo birds, that it was against the Denver Broncos. Everyone loves to trash on Fields and refuses to give him his flowers when he was surgical last week. The turnaround was massive, but it’s up in the air whether he can keep it up. We shall see this week. Fields had zero designed runs last week, so that has not changed. Luke Getsy still refuses to feature Fields’ rushing ability in 2023. How are Fields haters going to feel if he puts up back-to-back superb performances? The Commanders have not been a shutdown pass defense. They have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt and 13th-highest passer rating to passers while getting gashed by deep passing. Against deep throws, Washington has the sixth-highest passer rating, most deep passing yards, and the eighth-highest deep adjusted completion rate allowed. Fields has been money this year when chucking it deep. He has the third-highest deep passing grade, the most deep passing touchdowns (tied), and the fifth-highest deep adjusted completion rate. Week 5 Positional Value: QB1 with top-five upside this week

Sam Howell: The Sam Howell experience has been a rollercoaster, and that’s reflected in his metrics. Howell has the 13th-highest big-time throw rate and ranks eighth in adjusted completion rate while also having the 12th-lowest passing grade and the tenth-highest time to throw. Howell has struggled against zone coverage, which could loom large this week. The Bears have deployed their corners in zone on 62-73% of their snaps. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks against zone coverage, Howell ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 30th in fantasy points per dropback, and he has a 1:5 passing touchdown to interception ratio. I don’t want to underrate just how bad the Chicago secondary has been, though. The Bears have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, second-most passing touchdowns, and the fifth-highest adjusted completion rate. Howell is a dicey play this week, but the upside is there. Week 5 Positional Value: QB2 with upside

Running Backs

Khalil Herbert: The Bears shelved their two-back committee last week. We’ll see if that continues, but Herbert responded with a big game. He played a season-high 78% of the snaps with 22 touches and 122 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, Herbert ranks 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in explosive run rate. The Washington run defense can be exploited. While they have allowed the lowest missed tackles per attempt and have the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, they also have given up the eighth-highest explosive run rate coupled with having the eighth-lowest stuff rate. Herbert should have a solid day in Week 5. Week 5 Positional Value: RB2 with RB1 upside

Roschon Johnson: Johnson has been downgraded to a handcuff or stash only. His snaps dropped to 22% last week as he handled only six touches, producing 15 total yards. I don’t know if Herbert continues to see a 70% or higher snap share weekly, but it could hold for at least a few games, as Chicago’s offense finally showed signs of life last week, and Herbert played well. Week 5 Positional Value: Handcuff only

Brian Robinson: Robinson has been Washington’s lead back with at least 52% of the snaps played in three of four games. He has averaged 16.6 touches and 79.1 total yards. Robinson’s pass-game involvement has been minimal, with a 24.9% route run per team dropback rate and a 5.0% target share. Among 57 qualifying running backs, Robinson ranks 14th in explosive run rate and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. I won’t lie. I didn’t think Robinson had that type of juice. The Chicago run defense is not a pushover like their secondary. The Bears have held rushers to the 12th-lowest explosive run rate while bolstering the eighth-highest stuff rate. They have also zone runs to the 13th-lowest yards per carry (Robinson 65.6% zone per Fantasy Points Data). Week 5 Positional Value: RB2/3

Antonio Gibson: Gibson has played less than 40% of the snaps in half of the games this season. He is averaging only 5.3 touches and 30.5 total yards. We could see Gibson’s workload ramped up some in this matchup. Gibson has a 7.1% target share and a 50.3% route run per team dropback rate. The Bears have been bottom of the barrel against receiving backs, allowing the most receiving yards and the most receiving touchdowns (tied). Week 5 Positional Value: RB3/4 with PPR upside

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: Moore has seen a 19.5% target share and a 42% air yard share while producing 2.17 yards per route run (YPRR). He has a 33.8% first-read share while leading the team in deep targets (third-most among wide receivers). Moore also leads the team with a 34% first-read share against zone coverage. Moore will run about 52% of routes against Emmanuel Forbes (72% catch rate and 124.2 passer rating). This is another ceiling spot for Moore this year. Week 5 Positional Value: WR2

Darnell Mooney: Mooney has a 9.8% target share with a 13.4% air yard share. With Chase Claypool out of the lineup last week, Mooney saw an 11.4% target share. He is second on the team in deep targets, with a distant three to Moore’s nine. Mooney will run about 62% of his routes against Benjamin St. Juste (80% catch rate and 97.8 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR5

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin has an 18.6% target share and a 27.3% air yard share as the WR39 in fantasy. He leads the team’s starters with a 26.4% first read share and 1.51 YPRR (tied). McLaurin has yet to see a red zone target, which is eye-opening. Against zone coverage, McLaurin’s target share climbs to a team-leading 20.7% with 1.92 YPRR and a 27.9% first-read share. McLaurin will run about 80% of his routes against Terell Smith (41.7% catch rate and 67.0 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (76.5% catch rate and 149.8 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR3

Jahan Dotson: Dotson has commanded a 17.1% target share and a 20.0% air yard share. Overall, he has a 19.8% first read share while tying for the team lead with four red zone targets. Against zone coverage, his target share has increased to 19.6% with a 24.8% air yard share. Dotson has been a ghost this season. He hasn’t had more than 40 receiving yards in any game this year. It’s difficult to trust him in lineups at this point, but the matchup this week is pretty juicy. Doston will run about 50% of his routes against Greg Stroman (career: 74.6% catch rate and 108.9 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR4

Curtis Samuel: Samuel has a disappointing 14.3% target share with 1.51 YPRR and a meh-level 6.3 aDOT. Against zone, his target share has seen a small uptick to 15.2%, but his YPRR has dipped to 1.32. Samuel is tied for third on the team in red zone targets. He will run about 68% of his routes against Stroman. Week 5 Positional Value: WR5

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet: After a monster Week 4, Kmet is now the TE5 in fantasy points per game. This is a reflection upon the sad state of the tight end position this season. Kmet is second on the team with an 18.7% target share and an 18.3% first-read share. Last week without Claypool, Kmet stepped up as the clear number two option in the passing game with a 25.0% target share and a 25% first-read share (both second on the team). Kmet leads the team in red zone targets. Washington has been a brutal matchup for tight ends, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards and the lowest fantasy points per game for tight ends. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Logan Thomas: Thomas returned from a concussion to play 79% of Washington’s offensive snaps while posting a 74% route run per team dropback rate. Thomas only had a 7.3% target share, but he drew a 22.6% target share and a 24.5% air yard share in Week 1. Among 33 qualifying tight ends, Thomas ranks 19th in receiving grade and YPRR. Chicago has allowed the ninth-most receptions and the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Thomas could flirt with TE1 production this week. Week 5 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside

CHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. BUF | HOU vs. ATL | CAR vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | NYG vs. MIA | NO vs. NE | BAL vs. PIT | PHI vs. LAR | CIN vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DEN | KC vs. MIN | DAL vs. SF | GB vs. LV

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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.