The Primer: Week 5 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 5 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

Pace and playcalling notes

  • The Eagles are tenth in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • The Rams are a slow-and-throw team. They are 23rd in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral passing rate.
  • Both of these teams love to run in the red zone. Philly is second in red zone rushing rate, while Los Angeles is 13th.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts remains an elite fantasy option. He is 12th in yards per attempt and passing yards per game while ranking fourth-best in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Hurts is also eighth-best in fantasy points per dropback. You’re starting Hurts weekly, but after saying all that, we should temper expectations some this week. The Rams have surprised everyone this season by fielding a top-shelf pass defense. They have held quarterbacks at bay with the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the lowest adjusted completion rate. The Rams have given up the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 5 Positional Value: QB1

Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been playing out of his mind. He ranks fourth in passing grade, 11th-best in yards per attempt, and first in big-time throw rate. Sadly, because the Rams love to run inside the red zone, he only has three passing touchdowns. Because of this, he has the seventh-lowest fantasy points per dropback. Stafford should have a strong day against the Eagles’ pass funnel defense. Philly is not the same shutdown pass defense they were a year ago. They have allowed the seventh-highest passer rating, the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and the third-most passing touchdowns. Week 5 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB14 in fantasy, averaging 22 touches and 132.6 total yards since taking over as the team’s starter. He’s played 54-75% of the snaps weekly. Swift is the team’s goal-line back. Over the last two weeks, he has played 80% of the snaps when the team is inside the five-yard line and 70% of the snaps when they are inside the ten-yard line. Swift ranks 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a Rams’ run defense that has surrendered the 11th-highest explosive run rate while ranking 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Los Angeles has given up the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Swift 88.1% zone!!). Swift should be a focal point of the offensive game plan this week for Philly. Week 5 Positional Value: RB1

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell has averaged 42% of the snaps with 10.5 touches and 34.5 total yards over the last two games. Gainwell has not been productive or elusive with his touches. Among 58 qualifying backs, he has the 12th-highest stuff rate and the tenth-lowest missed tackles forced per attempt rate. He’s just a low-end stash at this point. Week 5 Positional Value: Stash only

Kyren Williams: Williams is the poster boy for “Volume is king” in fantasy football. He continues to operate in an elite role with only middling real-life talent. Since Week 2, he has played 72-100% of the snaps, averaging 20 touches and 97.3 total yards. He is the RB6 in fantasy. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks 42nd in explosive run rate, 44th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. None of these numbers should excite you, but Williams remains a must-play option and RB1 weekly because he does not leave the field, and the Rams love running near the goal line. Philly has a fearsome run defense. They have held backs to the lowest yards after contact per attempt in the NFL, the second-lowest missed tackles allowed rate, and the sixth-lowest explosive run rate. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Williams 84.4% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: Volume-based RB1

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Brown is a dominant WR1 who looks like he was built in a lab. He is the definition of an elite wide receiver. He ranks second in target share (33.1%), third in air-yard share (50.0%), sixth in YPRR, and first in first-read share (43.0%). The Disney connection between him and Hurts is alive and well. Brown will run about 79% of his routes against Ahkello Witherspoon (37.5% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (35.3% catch rate and 63.6 passer rating). These two corners are playing out of their minds, but Brown will give them all they can handle in Week 5. Week 5 Positional Value: WR1

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the firm second option in this passing attack behind Brown. He has a 21.5% target share, a 31.4% air yard share, and a 27.9% first-read share. He ranks 32nd in YPRR among 137 qualifying wide receivers. Smith will run about 73% of his routes against Witherspoon and Kendrick. Temper your expectations for this passing attack in Week 5. Week 5 Positional Value: WR2/3

Puka Nacua:Nacua is the WR4 in fantasy, commanding a 30.5% target share (third-best), a 33.6% air-yard share, and the seventh-best YPRR. McVay has stated that Kupp won’t be limited this week but that they will monitor him in the game. I’m sorry, McVay, but I don’t believe you. Kupp could easily see only a limited snap share this week. Start Nacua confidently as a WR1. He will run about 69% of his routes against James Bradberry (64.3% catch rate and 108.6 passer rating) and Darius Slay (75% catch rate and 106.1 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR1

Cooper Kupp: Kupp is set to make his 2023 debut this week. I expect him to have a limited workload this week as the team gets him up to speed. McVay stated that Kupp would be a full-go, but then he also said, ​​“I think we’ll see how it goes. I think what you do know is (that) once he gets going, you want to be smart about it. I also know that once a game gets going, you’re kind of in that moment. … It’ll be something that we’ll want to be careful about, but I think there will be a lot of that communication in terms of how he’s feeling as well because he has such a good ability to do that with myself and the rest of our coaches.” That sounds more tentative than his exclamation that Kupp won’t be limited all week. Kupp will run at least half of his routes from the slot against Bradley Roby (2022: 53.7% catch rate and 79.4 passer rating). Roby is one of the best nickels in the league. Last season, among 47 slot corners with at least 100 slot coverage snaps, Roby had the sixth-lowest passer rating and the seventh-lowest yards per snap allowed. Kupp is a WR2 this week who could return value on even a limited role with an active red zone presence. Week 5 Positional Value: WR2

Tutu Atwell: Atwell is the WR22 in fantasy with a 21.9% target share and a 28.7% air-yard share. His role is up in the air this week with Kupp’s return. He could see his snaps hindered this week. The Rams’ wide receivers may operate in a rotation behind Nacua with Kupp’s snap share up in the air. Sit Atwell. Week 5 Positional Value: Must-sit

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert: Goedert’s barely had a pulse in fantasy this season. Among 37 qualifying tight ends, he is 14th in target share, 31st in YPRR, and 35th in YAC per reception. The fall-off in his YAC skills has been the most disturbing fact this season. Among the same sample of tight ends, he ranks 33rd in fantasy points per route run. This could be the breakout game to get Goedert rolling. With the Rams’ corners playing exceptional football, targets, and production have been funneled to tight ends playing the Rams. Los Angeles has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards, the third-highest yards per reception, and the tenth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 5 Positional Value: TE1

Tyler Higbee: Higbee also finds his way to the TE1 radar this week. Among 37 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 15th in target share, 16th in YPRR, 20th in YAC per reception, and 27th in fantasy points per route run. None of these stats will jump off the page as a reason compelling you to play Higbee until you look at the matchup. Philly is bleeding out production to the position. The Eagles have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards, the third-most fantasy points, and the ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 5 Positional Value: TE1

CHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. BUF | HOU vs. ATL | CAR vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | NYG vs. MIA | NO vs. NE | BAL vs. PIT | PHI vs. LAR | CIN vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DEN | KC vs. MIN | DAL vs. SF | GB vs. LV

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals

Pace and playcalling notes

  • The Bengals are 19th in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
  • Arizona ranks 20th in neutral pace while having the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: I know it’s been tough to watch Burrow the last few weeks. He has the 13th-lowest passing grade, the second-lowest yards per attempt, and the fifth-lowest aDOT. I don’t know if Cincy lets him sit back and chuck it this week or if it’s more of the same dink and dunk, but there’s a path for Burrow to be vintage Burrow this week if they can keep him clean. Cincinnati faced a similar style of defense last week in the Titans. You could beat their secondary, but not with the YAC and underneath game. The same is true for Arizona. They have allowed the third-fewest missed tackles and the 13th-lowest YAC per reception. Take those things out of the equation, and Arizona is a cakewalk. They have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, ninth-highest passer rating, and sixth-highest adjusted completion rate. They have faced the sixth-fewest deep attempts but have allowed the eighth-highest deep ball passer rating and the fifth-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Burrow has only attempted four deep passes over the last two weeks, which is tied for 26th among quarterbacks. If the Bengals can keep him clean, we could see Burrow wind up deep this week. Arizona is 28th in pressure rate and 29th in blitz rate, so I don’t see them making Burrow sweat in this game. Please, vintage Burrow. Grace us with your presence in Week 5. Week 5 Positional Value: QB1

Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs has been one of the feel-good stories of the season. Since Week 2, he ranks 19th in passing grade, 17th in yards per attempt, and 15th in adjusted completion rate. He has averaged seven rushes and 48 rushing yards during this stretch with QB5, QB16, and QB8 fantasy finishes. Dobbs is stream-worthy again this week. Cincy is 16th in passer rating and 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. They have also surrendered the 11th-highest yards per attempt. Week 5 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB22 in fantasy, averaging 17.1 touches and 78.6 total yards. He has played at least 75% of snaps in three of four games. Mixon is tenth in snap share and fourth in opportunity share. His efficiency drop-off last year looks real, and it appears it’s here to stay. Among 58 qualified backs, Mixon ranks 41st in explosive run rate, 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. Arizona is an average to above-average matchup for Mixon. The Cardinals have the second-lowest stuff rate, the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and rank 15th in explosive run rate allowed. Week 5 Positional Value: RB2

James Conner: Conner is the RB19 in fantasy, ranking 11th in snap share and ninth in opportunity share. He is 16th in weighted opportunity and 18th in red zone touches. He has played 62-84% of the snaps weekly, averaging 17.5 touches and 87 total yards. He hasn’t seen more than two targets in a game since Week 1, so his value will arise from the early downs. That’s okay because Conner has been running well this season. Among 58 qualifying backs, he is sixth-best in explosive run rate, 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. Conner should have a monster day against the Bengals’ run defense. Cincy has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 5 Positional Value: Rock solid RB2 with RB1 upside

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase leads Cincy with a 27.0% target share and sits behind Tee Higgins with a 34.6% air-yard share. Chase ranks 36th in receiving grade and 39th in YPRR among wideouts. He is tied with Higgins for the team lead in red zone targets. Chase is second on the team in deep targets, but if Higgins is out, he should take over the deep threat role. Arizona’s corners have operated in zone on 64% of their coverage snaps. Against zone, Chase’s target share climbs to 30.5%, his air-yard share bumps up to 41.8%, and his first-read share is a whopping 40.8%. This is an easy Chase goes nuclear spot. Chase will run about 75% of his routes against Kei’Trel Clark (72% catch rate and 101.8 passer rating) and Marco Wilson (80.8% catch rate and 131.6 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR1

Tee Higgins:Higgins (ribs) has been ruled out.

Tyler Boyd: Boyd has been a declining player over the last few seasons. This season, against zone coverage, he has a 12.4% target share, a 15.4% air yard share, and a 16.9% first-read share. His YPRR against zone is a nausea-inducing 0.81. Boyd has drawn only one red zone target. He will run about 89% of his routes against Jalen Thompson (63.6% catch rate and 89.2 passer rating). The last time that Boyd eclipsed 70 receiving yards (including the playoffs) was Week 7 of last season, and he only managed that twice last year. Week 5 Positional Value: WR4/5

Marquise Brown: In the three games in which Michael Wilson has played at least 67% of the snaps, Brown has seen a 23.9% target share and 41.9% air-yard share with 2.08 YPRR. In those three games, he has a 27.5% first-read share (first on the team). Brown is the WR19 in fantasy, ranking 23rd in red zone and deep targets among wide receivers. Brown will run about 81% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (85.7% catch rate and 137.8 passer rating) and D.J. Turner (12.5% catch rate and 39.6 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR3

Michael Wilson: In the three games, Wilson has seen starter-level snaps (at least a 67% snap share); he has handled a 14.1% target share and a 26.7% air yard share with 2.32 YPRR. Wilson is the WR33 in fantasy points per game with four deep targets and two looks inside the red zone. He will run about 68% of his routes against Awuzie and Turner. Week 5 Positional Value: WR5

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz: Ertz is the TE11 in fantasy with a 24.4% target share and a 23.3% air-yard share. He ranks second in targets, seventh in route participation, and fourth in red zone targets among tight ends. He has the fourth-most reception among tight ends. Ertz should put up solid numbers this week. Cincy has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the sixth-most fantasy points, and the 11th-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 5 Positional Value: TE1

CIN TEs: No tight end on this roster has managed at least a 70% route run rate or a 12% target share. This group is a fantasy wasteland.

CHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. BUF | HOU vs. ATL | CAR vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | NYG vs. MIA | NO vs. NE | BAL vs. PIT | PHI vs. LAR | CIN vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DEN | KC vs. MIN | DAL vs. SF | GB vs. LV

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Nathaniel Hackett has sped up the offense with Zach Wilson under center. The Jets are second in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate.
  • Denver will balance out the pace as they are another slow-and-throw affair. Denver ranks 25th and seventh in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Zach Wilson: All jokes aside, we need to give Wilson his flowers after last week’s performance. He was 12th in passing grade, fifth in big-time throw rate, and 17th in adjusted completion rate as the QB14 in fantasy. He did this against what has been a tough Kansas City secondary that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I can’t wait to see what he will do for an encore against Denver. Denver has been an all-time bad defense this season. They have allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most passing touchdowns, the highest passer rating, and the highest adjusted completion rate. Wilson is a worrisome but strong streaming option this week. Week 5 Positional Value: Matchup-based streaming option

Russell Wilson: The defensive struggles in Denver are overshadowing a wonderful bounce-back season Wilson is engineering. He is seventh in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and tenth-best in adjusted completion rate. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson is ninth-best in fantasy points per dropback. New York will serve as a good litmus test for where Wilson truly is and if this resurgence is for real. The Jets have allowed the tenth-lowest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passer rating, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Look for the Jets to generate pressure this week. They are ninth-best in pressure rate. Wilson has handled pressure extremely well this season. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, first in passer rating, and second in fantasy points per dropback against pressure. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Running Backs

Breece Hall: The training wheels have been taken off. The Jets have declared they will not be limiting Hall’s workload anymore. To this point, he’s played 31-49% of the snaps weekly, averaging 9.3 touches and 63 total yards. Hall has been one of the most explosive backs in the NFL again this year. He ranks fourth in explosive run rate, 14th in missed tackled forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Hall’s volume infusion comes at the perfect time against a fumbling Denver run defense. The Broncos rank in the bottom three in explosive run rate, missed tackles allowed per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Feed Breece season is here. Week 5 Positional Value: RB1

Dalvin Cook: With Hall getting unleashed this week, Cook can be dropped in all formats. If you want to run him out there if you’re desperate for a flex play because of bye weeks, I get it, but you’ll probably be sad with the result. Cook is cooked. Among 58 qualifying running backs, he ranks sixth-worst in stuff rate and has the 11th-lowest missed tackle forced per attempt. He has not generated an explosive run this season. Week 5 Positional Value: Droppable

Javonte Williams: Williams has been listed as questionable (hip). He was listed on the practice reports as not practicing on Wednesday, limited on Thursday, and a full session on Friday, but Williams’ recent quote was more telling about his practices this week. He stated “I feel pretty good but I didn’t practice (fully) the whole week.” This feels like classic fudging of practice reports to smoke screen your opponent. I will update Williams’ status on Saturday, but I expect him to be ruled out.

Jaleel McLaughlin: The 5’7″ 187 pound McLaughlin is lightning in a tiny bottle. Last week, he played 33% of the snaps, turning ten touches into 104 total yards. It’s an incredibly small sample size this regular season. Still, among 66 qualifying backs, McLaughlin ranks ninth-best in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. If we look at his preseason resume, we find more explosive plays on display. Among 64 qualifying running backs this preseason, McLaughlin ranked 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 22nd in breakaway rate, and 13th in elusive rating. He might be tiny, but the elusivity is real across multiple samples. If we go back to his college resume, we find more of the same. In 2022, among 296 qualified FBS and FCS running backs, he ranked 56th in yards after contact per attempt and 99th in elusive rating. The Jets aren’t a fearsome run defense, but they have held zone runs to the tenth-lowest yards per carry (McLaughlin 69.2% zone). I expect Perine to get the first crack at the work this week, but McLaughlin should work in equally with the upside to out touch him. Week 5 Positional Value: RB3

Samaje Perine: Perine dominated snaps in the second half of last week’s game after Javonte Williams left the game. He played 60% of the snaps (McLaughlin 32%). He out-snapped McLaughlin nine to four on passing plays and six to one in the red zone. Overall, he played 46% of the snaps with eight touches and 35 total yards. Perine has been lumbering along all season. Among 58 qualifying backs, he has the ninth-highest stuff rate, the third-lowest missed tackles forced per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. He has not recorded one explosive run this season. He’s essentially Denver’s Dalvin Cook. He could again get a crack at the work first this week. Once Sean Payton sees him run for two yards and a cloud of dust consistently again, we should see more McLaughlin. New York has the 11th-lowest stuff rate while ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt. The Jets have allowed the 14th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Perine 72% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: RB3

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has a 26.6% target share, a 39.5% air-yard share, and a ridiculous 44.1% first-read share. Wilson ranks 33rd in receiving grade and 43rd in YPRR among 96 qualifying wide receivers. Wilson is tied for eighth in red zone targets in the NFL. Wilson will run about 72% of his routes against Pat Surtain ll (63.2% catch rate and 114.1 passer rating) and Damarri Mathis (88% catch rate and 154.2 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jerry Jeudy: Jeudy has yet to play more than 76% of the offensive snaps in any game since his return. Since Week 2, Jeudy has had a 17.3% target share, a 28.6% first read share, and 1.84 YPRR. He has only drawn one red zone target this season. Jeudy will run about 72% of his routes against Michael Carter (50% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR3

Courtland Sutton: With Jeudy back in the lineup, Sutton has had a 23.5% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. Sutton leads the team during this stretch with five end-zone targets. Sutton will run about 50% of his routes against Bryce Hall (Career: 65.0% catch rate and 105.6 passer rating) this week with D.J. Reed and Brandin Echols out. Reed and Echols being out is a massive bump up for Sutton. Gardner does not shadow and will exclusively play one side of the field away from Sutton. Week 5 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside

Marvin Mims: Mims remains only an upside stash. Since Week 2, he has only a 26.8% route run rate despite 7.77 YPRR and a 30% TPRR. I don’t know why Payton refuses to thrust his talented rookie into a full-time role, but it hasn’t happened yet. For now we continue to watch and wait. Mims has produced beautifully with every opportunity that he has earned. Week 5 Positional Value: Stash-only

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Conklin falls into the matchup-based streaming portion of the tight-end pool this week. He has a 62% route run rate with a 12.9% target share and an 11.8% first-read share. He ranks 18th in receiving grade and 15th in YPRR. Surprise. Surprise. Denver is also terrible at defending tight ends. They have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per reception, and the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 5 Positional Value: Matchup-based streaming option

Adam Trautman: Trautman only makes the Primer this week because of the matchup. He has been nearly non-existent this season in the Bronco’s passing game. He has a 67.8% route run rate but only a 6.1% target share to show for it. New York has been giving up a ton of production to tight ends this season. The Jets have allowed the second-most receiving yards, the fifth-highest yards per reception, and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 5 Positional Value: Matchup-based streaming option

CHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. BUF | HOU vs. ATL | CAR vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | NYG vs. MIA | NO vs. NE | BAL vs. PIT | PHI vs. LAR | CIN vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DEN | KC vs. MIN | DAL vs. SF | GB vs. LV

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings

Pace and playcalling notes

  • What type of voodoo curse magic is this? Kansas City ranks 21st in neutral pace and passing rate. I am saddened and speechless by this finding.
  • The Vikings rank fourth and first in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes is superhuman, but even superheroes have limits to their powers. The Chiefs’ offense has hit the skids. Mahomes is the QB9 in fantasy points per game. He has the ninth-highest passing grade while ranking 15th in yards per attempt, 27th in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback. This should be a nice bounceback spot for Mahomes. The Vikings have given up the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest passer rating, and the second-highest adjusted completion rate. Brian Flores loves to blitz and is doing so at the highest rate in the NFL (57%). Mahomes has been money against the blitz, ranking eighth in passer rating, 11th in adjusted completion rate, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. Week 5 Positional Value: QB1

Kirk Cousins: “Kohl’s cash” Cousins is the QB8 in fantasy, ranking ninth in passing grade, 12th in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in yards per attempt. He has finished as a top-ten fantasy quarterback in three of four games (QB9, QB2, QB4). This week’s matchup will arguably be his toughest of the season. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, 12th-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Cousins will have to put up points in this matchup to keep pace with Kansas City, but he will have to overcome the Chiefs’ pass rush to do so. Kansas City is top-five in pressure rate and blitz rate this season. Cousins has been solid against the blitz, ranking fifth in passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. Week 5 Positional Value: QB1

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is the RB16 in fantasy. He’s coming off his highest volume game of the season with 60% of the snaps played. Pacheco had 23 touches as he rattled off 158 total yards. It was only the second 100-yard rushing game of his career. Pacheco ranks 20th in weighted opportunity and sixth in red zone touches. His breakneck running style has been paying off as he’s ninth in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he could be contained. The Vikings’ run defense has been quite good this season. They are limited backs to the third-lowest explosive run rate and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Minnesota also has the 13th-best stuff rate. They have given up the lowest yards per carry (2.2) to gap runs (Pacheco 56.4% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: RB2/3

Alexander Mattison: Mattison is the RB21 in fantasy with three top-20 finishes (RB16, RB10, RB20). His last two games have arguably been his best, averaging 21.5 touches and 111.5 total yards. Last week, he played a season-low 69% of the snaps as Cam Akers got into the mix. We’ll see if his snap share drops again this week, but for now, we should view Mattison as the leader of this backfield. For how long will be determined. Among 58 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 36th in explosive run rate, 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. Minnesota should look to establish the run this week against a Chiefs’ run defense that has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, has the tenth-lowest stuff rate, and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 5 Positional Value: RB2

Cam Akers: In his first game with the Vikings, Akers played 29% of the snaps, finishing with seven touches and 51 total yards. He finished the game with 3.4 yards after contact per attempt. Not too shabby, Akers. For now, he’s only a stash. Week 5 Positional Value: Stash-only

Wide Receivers

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling is the WR100 in fantasy. He has nine total targets this season despite an 81% route participation. Do not play Valdes-Scantling. Week 5 Positional Value: Droppable

All other KC WRs: It’s impossible to start any Kansas City receiving option outside of Kelce with any shred of confidence. Last week, no Chiefs’ wide receiver managed more than a 51% route run rate, and only Rashee Rice had over a 7% target share. Until this clears up, every Chiefs’ wide receiver is a must-sit.

Justin Jefferson: Jefferson is the WR1 in fantasy. He is top-five in targets, target share, air yards, and deep targets. He has not finished lower than WR8 in any week this season. Start him weekly. Jefferson may see shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed (56.5% catch rate and 72.6 passer rating). Sneed has shadowed in three of four games this season, following receivers on 60-79% of their routes. Sneed has not allowed a receiver to surpass four receptions and 35 receiving yards in his shadow coverage. Jefferson is a different beast, but his numbers could be slightly muted this week. Week 5 Positional Value: WR1 

Jordan Addison:Addison’s route run rate has bounced all over the place over the last three games, from 66.7% (Week 4) to 76.4% (Week 3). Minnesota loves K.J. Osborn. I don’t know why the Vikings refuse to bump Addison up to an 80% route run rate, but it hasn’t happened. Addison has a 12.1% target share, a 21.2% air-yard share, and 1.57 YPRR. Addison has only four deep targets, and two red zone looks this season as the WR45 in fantasy. Addison will run about 77% of his routes against L’Jarius Sneed (56.5% catch rate and 72.6 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (37.5% catch rate and 48.4 passer rating). The Chiefs have defended the ninth-most dropbacks in man coverage this season. Against man coverage, Addison has only an 8.3% target share and 10% TPRR. Not good, Bob. Not good. Week 5 Positional Value: WR5

K.J. Osborn: Osborn is the WR62 in fantasy. He ranks outside the top 60 wide receivers in targets, target share, TPRR, and YPRR. Osborn is not fantasy-viable. Week 5 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce is the TE2 in fantasy points per game. He ranks fifth in targets, second in target share, and second in red zone targets among tight ends. Minnesota has allowed the fewest receiving yards and yards per reception to tight ends. Does this matter for Kelce? Nope. Week 5 Positional Value: TE1 overall

T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is the TE3 in fantasy. He leads all tight ends in targets while also ranking third in red zone targets, sixth in target share, and 13th in YPRR. Kansas City has been giving to tight ends. They have surrendered the tenth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. Week 5 Positional Value: Top-five TE

CHI vs. WAS | JAC vs. BUF | HOU vs. ATL | CAR vs. DET | TEN vs. IND | NYG vs. MIA | NO vs. NE | BAL vs. PIT | PHI vs. LAR | CIN vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DEN | KC vs. MIN | DAL vs. SF | GB vs. LV

FantasyPros Discord Community (Live Chat)

NFL NFL Primers Start/Sit Streamers Weekly Advice

More Articles

10 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Stashes Ahead of Week 12 (2024)

10 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Stashes Ahead of Week 12 (2024)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 4 min read
Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings From the Most Accurate Experts (2024)

Fantasy Football Week 11 Rankings From the Most Accurate Experts (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 3 min read
NFL DFS GPP Lineup Advice & Picks (Week 11)

NFL DFS GPP Lineup Advice & Picks (Week 11)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 7 min read
NFL Week 11 Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (2024)

NFL Week 11 Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (2024)

fp-headshot by Raju Byfield | 2 min read

About Author

fp-headshot

Derek Brown

|

Derek Brown is a senior fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.

Hide

Current Article

|

15+ min read

10 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Stashes Ahead of Week 12 (2024)

Next Up - 10 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Stashes Ahead of Week 12 (2024)

Next Article