Welcome to Week 6. This week brings a narrow slate with six teams on bye. Therefore, we are staring down a 10-game main slate and some interesting positional options and stacks.
Last week, this series of articles identified the RB9 (D’Andre Swift), the RB10 (Alvin Kamara), and the TE2 (Dalton Schultz) as value plays. Some of the other recommendations were moderate hits, like Joe Burrow (QB14) and Christian Kirk (WR27). While it is always easy to talk about the ones that hit, it is just as important to recognize where I missed. My apologies for those who played Logan Thomas (1/2 and a TE50 finish).
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
Welcome to Week 6. This week brings a narrow slate with six teams on bye. Therefore, we are staring down a 10-game main slate and some interesting positional options and stacks.
Last week, this series of articles identified the RB9 (D’Andre Swift), the RB10 (Alvin Kamara), and the TE2 (Dalton Schultz) as value plays. Some of the other recommendations were moderate hits, like Joe Burrow (QB14) and Christian Kirk (WR27). While it is always easy to talk about the ones that hit, it is just as important to recognize where I missed. My apologies for those who played Logan Thomas (1/2 and a TE50 finish).
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 7 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Coming fresh from their bye, the Packers draw a favorable matchup against a Denver Broncos defense that hemorrhages fantasy points. Love is averaging the eighth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks through the first six weeks of play. There is also mounting hope that running back Aaron Jones will be able to suit up and return to his point-scoring ways.
Plenty of players still vividly and angrily remember Love’s three-pick outing back in week five that resulted in less than eight fantasy points. Bitter fantasy players often hesitate to return to the well that poisoned them, especially recently. This could result in a lower rostered percentage, which is advantageous for tournaments and GPP contests.
The Broncos allow 2.3 passing touchdowns per game and the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position.
Love opened the season throwing three touchdowns in each of his first two games. While he has only thrown two more since then, he has added two rushing touchdowns in that span as well. Love will sometimes struggle with accuracy, but could still find ways to score points against the Broncos. He is an enticing option for GPP contests this week and priced well enough to outperform his salary.
Howell has finished as a QB1 in three of his six games played, including finishing as the QB5 and QB7 over his last two, respectively. He has the fifth-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks and ninth in passing yards. He does run a little bit, but not as much as many analysts were inclined to believe. Still, that is an untapped tool in his toolbox that he has shown some capability of. Jahan Dotson is also an untapped weapon in his hand, but that is a different article altogether.
The Giants are middle of the pack against quarterbacks, allowing an average of 221 passing yards per contest. They’ve allowed three multiple passing touchdown games and two 300-yard passing games.
Howell’s salary is poised to be good for a nice ROI and in a beatable matchup. He has QB1 upside this week and is better utilized in GPP contests this week.
Running Backs
Between the positional injuries and the running backs on bye this week, the DFS options taper off from usable to downright gross very quickly. This is a week to pay up for the production and just swallow the chalk.
Walker has only two games of less than 15 PPR points this season. He’s seen 17 or more carries and notched at least one rushing touchdown in four of his last five games. He is currently eighth in PPR points per game among running backs.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals allow the third-most fantasy points to the position. They’re allowing over 112 rushing yards and .8 rushing touchdowns per game. Geno Smith has not perfectly emulated his strong success from last season. Walker has remained highly involved as an integral part of this offense.
With such a steep drop-off in running backs this week, Walker is the good chalk that managers can trust in their cash lineups.
Pacheco has seen his role grow into the unquestioned work-horse back for the Chiefs. He has finished with 12 or more fantasy points in his last four games, including three rushing touchdowns. He is averaging 20 touches for 99.5 scrimmage yards during that span.
This week, the Chiefs draw a divisional matchup against the Chargers. These games have been high-scoring affairs and the Chargers defense has enough holes for Andy Reid to scheme to exploit. Through six games, the Chargers allow the 10th-most points to running backs. Opposing teams are gaining an average of 82.4 rushing yards and 0.6 rushing touchdowns against the Chargers.
In a game that features the highest over/under (47.5) on this slate, pieces should be in lineups across contests. Pacheco is not super cheap but is in a smash spot to maintain both the recent volume and production. He is a high-floor cash game option and can be used in GPP contests as well.
Wide Receivers
In terms of targets, “Hollywood” Brown is rolling in them. In terms of receptions…well, that leaves a little to be desired. Through six weeks, Brown has had less than 10 targets only twice, which is good. He is only catching 54.7% of them on the season, which is not good. In fact, over the last two weeks, he has only reeled in eight of his 21 targets (38%), which is decidedly bad. Not all of that inefficiency falls at the feet of Brown. After a hot start, Josh Dobbs has cooled down to the point of being downright tepid lately.
Brown’s 27% target share cannot be ignored, especially when a good matchup exists.
The Seahawks allow the third-most fantasy points and 204.8 receiving yards to wide receivers this season. They have allowed four receivers to go for over 100 yards.
Brown has a WR2 floor this week with room for upside in a great matchup and all the volume he can handle. Brown can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Let’s start with some honesty. Terry McLaurin is $7200 and averaging 10.28 fantasy points per contest. Curtis Samuel is $6400 and averaging 10.33 fantasy points per game. Samuel has two receiving touchdowns to McLaurin’s one. For total transparency, McLaurin averages seven targets per game, while Samuel averages 5.16 per game. Target volume favors McLaurin, but Samuel is a sneaky play here. He also gets the added bonus of a carry or two per game, helping pad his points.
The Giants allow 159.7 receiving yards and 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game. They’re allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to the position.
Samuel is far from a lock but remains the better value when comparing points per dollar and production. McLaurin would be the cash game play, while Samuel is the GPP target.
Tight Ends
There has been very little predictable out of the tight end landscape this season, aside from the usual suspects. And there is definitely some trepidation about recommending a rookie tight end for a DFS lineup but there is a lot to like here.
Musgrave has yet to have a big blowup game yet, but the peripherals have been very good, including over a 17% target share. He has been earning targets, with two games of seven or more targets. He has had two games of 49 or more yards.
The Broncos largely ignore the position. They’re allowing the most receiving yards and the most fantasy points to tight ends.
The big game is coming and this matchup is mouth-watering. Musgrave has sneaky TE1 appeal and can be used in GPP contests.
Disclaimer: This play is almost entirely dependent on whether or not Deshaun Watson is good to go for this game. If Watson plays, Njoku becomes a much more viable value play, yet still not for those who lack the intestinal fortitude.
After a bounce-back type of season last year, Njoku has been mostly disappointing for 2023. He has yet to score this season or surpass 48 receiving yards. While all of this may seem counterintuitive to try to sell him as a play this week, these are all the reasons he won’t be on many rosters.
Njoku is averaging 4.4 targets per game and a 12.8% target share. Neither of which is overly impressive. However, the matchup is fantastic. The Colts allow 9.0 targets and 60.5 receiving yards to tight ends. They’re currently allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the position.
Assuming Watson’s shoulder holds up for a game, this is a moderate-risk-high-reward play that should only be used in tournaments and best used for multiple lineups.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
