Welcome to Week 6 of NFL DFS. We have an 11-game slate full of opportunities to build competitive lineups.
For the betting crowd, make sure to check out BettingPros for the most up-to-date betting information.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 6 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023)
Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew II (IND) vs. JAC: $5,000 (DraftKings)
After a rough week for injuries to highly productive players, including Anthony Richardson, the Minshew Mania sequels are poised to surpass the “Fast and the Furious” franchise at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Last season, Gardner Minshew filled in well for Jalen Hurts. In his two full starts last season, he finished as the QB16 and the QB5, respectively. This season, he has filled in well for Richardson when called upon. In one full start and two fill-in games, he has completed 68.7% of his passes for 553 passing yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions.
The Jaguars are friendly to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the fifth-most passing touchdowns (1.6/game) and the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. The only quarterback they’ve faced that they have kept under 20 fantasy points was Desmond Ridder. Every quarterback they’ve faced has thrown at least one touchdown pass; three of the five have thrown two.
Shane Steichen basically brought Minshew from Philadelphia to Indianapolis. He knew what he had in Minshew as a capable backup, able to lead an offense when called upon. The matchup is beatable, the salary is friendly for roster construction and there are some decent stacking options.
Minshew is a GPP play this week in a ‘revenge game’ setting for those who observe.
Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. SEA: $7,500 (FanDuel)
Joe Burrow has thrown zero passing touchdowns in three of five games this season. He’s thrown two and three, respectively, in the other two. Last week was the first time this season that he has appeared uninhibited by the calf strain he has been battling since late July. The result was his first 20+ fantasy point performance of the season and the first corresponding big game from Ja’Marr Chase.
The Seahawks allow 305.3 passing yards and the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Despite the $500 increase in salary from last week to this week, Burrow appears to be on the right track to resume his high-level play. The Seahawks are scrappy enough to fight back, meaning this game could feature some back-and-forth scoring opportunities. At cost, Burrow is better suited to cash contests.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (PHI) vs. NYJ: $6,100 (DraftKings)
In four of five games played, D’Andre Swift has seen 14 or more carries and is averaging 3.4 targets per contest. In those four games, he has 16 or more fantasy points in each of them. He is averaging 107.8 rushing yards per game during that stretch. When fully healthy and endowed with a commitment by the team to give him reliable touches, Swift has been excellent as a fantasy producer this season.
At this point, do not try and stop the train, just board it. The Eagles swoop into to New Jersey to square off against the New York Jets. The Jets allow the eighth-most fantasy points and the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
Swift’s salary and production put him squarely in the cash-game-stud category. He can be used in GPP contests, as well, but he may be a little chalky to be a difference-maker.
Alvin Kamara (NO) vs. HOU: $7,500 (FanDuel)
Holy workload, Batman! In his first two games back from suspension, Alvin Kamara has seen 33 carries and 17 targets. He has finished with 14+ fantasy points in each contest, and neither were ideal running back matchups.
The Texans are poised to be the recipient of Kamara’s first huge game of the season. Through five weeks, they are allowing the 13th-most rushing yards, the seventh-most receiving yards and the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs on a per-game basis.
Between work-horse volume and a better-than-average matchup, Kamara is a value at his current salary. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests but feels more effective in cash.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Addison (MIN) vs. CHI: $5,700 (DraftKings)
Justin Jefferson is on injured reserve; a moment of silence, please. Thank you.
This has rippling effects across the fantasy landscape, including but not limited to his own team. Here is an interesting tidbit. T.J. Hockenson is the most expensive tight end on this slate, with the absence of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. He comes in at $6,600 on DraftKings and averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game. Jordan Addison is $5,700 and averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game…on 11 fewer targets. This isn’t to hint or allege that Hockenson is a bad play this week; it is simply pointing out where the value is. It stands to reason that Addison’s targets will go up starting this week.
The Bears are allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. The Vikings’ run game has been nothing short of disappointing, while the defense might struggle to defend an ambitious toddler in the toy aisle. Regardless of personnel, Kirk Cousins is going to have to throw.
Addison did show up as a limited participant in practice in the middle of the week, so be sure to check his status before dropping him into lineups. Assuming he is ready to play, he is a GPP value in a divisional matchup.
Christian Kirk (JAC) vs. IND: $6,600 (FanDuel)
Christian Kirk has had only one game with less than 11 fantasy points, and it was back in Week 1 against these same Colts. Since then, he is averaging nearly 10 targets and 81.5 receiving yards per game. His worst finish over the last four weeks is WR25. Kirk consistently produces solid floor numbers for the .5 PPR scoring that FanDuel utilizes.
The Colts allow the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and 186.4 receiving yards per game. Over five weeks, they have allowed four wideouts to clear the 100-yard receiving mark, with three of the four going over 140.
Trevor Lawrence has improved over the last few weeks after struggling to open the season. This Colts team will be able to fight back through the air and also have Jonathan Taylor back. In a potential back-and-forth game, having pieces of both offenses is a strong approach.
Kirk has solid floor production but lacks a truly high ceiling. He is a nice middle piece for GPP roster construction that allows higher-risk/reward types of plays.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas (WAS) vs. ATL: $3,500 (DraftKings)
Through his four games played, Logan Thomas has 25 targets. That is the 16th-most among the position despite missing a game due to concussion. He is averaging 11.9 fantasy points per contest, which is slightly skewed due to exiting Week 2 early. He is only six targets behind team leader Terry McLaurin. Thomas represents a reliable target share and has more targets inside the 10-yard line than Hockenson and Sam LaPorta.
The Falcons’ defense has been surprisingly better than anticipated, except against tight ends. They’re allowing the second-most fantasy points, the fifth-most receiving yards and are tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns to the position.
For the low-cost and reliable target floor, Thomas is an excellent GPP play that can used in cash games to allocate funds elsewhere.
Dalton Schultz (HOU) vs. NO: $5,200 (FanDuel)
Dalton Schultz started the season rather quietly, putting up just 47 scoreless yards over the first three weeks. Over the last two weeks, he has 13 targets, 10 receptions, 107 receiving yards and two scores. Tank Dell is questionable (concussion), Robert Woods is questionable (ribs) and John Metchie is still getting acclimated to the NFL. Schultz is heading into this game with a reliable role to fill from a rookie quarterback who has played some good football thus far.
On paper, the Saints look like an imposing defense against tight ends. Currently, by the numbers, they are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. However, here is a short list of the tight ends they’ve faced thus far: Chig Okonkwo, Hayden Hurst, Luke Musgrave, Cade Otton and Mike Gesicki. None of them are high-scoring fantasy tight ends or tied to high-scoring quarterbacks. The context suggests that the ranking is currently a little misleading.
Houston is expected to be playing from behind, and C.J. Stroud must continue to throw the ball. With two of their top-three receivers toting a questionable tag, Schultz is poised to absorb a couple more targets and could easily outproduce his salary. Due to the risk, consider him a GPP dart throw.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
