Welcome to Week 5 all you DEF Degens. Week 5? Already? This season is moving forward in a hurry, as we are already into the bye weeks. Due to the byes, this is a 10-game slate that narrows the player pool. That can be advantageous to putting together a winning lineup.
Last week, this article identified the QB9 (Russell Wilson) and the RB13 (Jaylen Warren), as well as a couple of other players that did not hurt but also did not propel lineups.
This weekly series is not meant to be a lineup builder. Instead, it is meant to identify players who could outperform their ADP based on matchups and other factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
There is a lot to cover. Let’s get into it.
- NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer
- NFL DFS Projected Roster Percentages
- Weekly NFL DFS Salary Changes
- NFL DFS Stacking Strategy & Advice
NFL Week 5 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson (IND) vs. TEN: $7,000 (DraftKings)
Many perceived Anthony Richardson as a raw prospect; some imbeciles even pegged Gardner Minshew as the day-one starter for the Colts before training camp. While Richardson has some development ahead of him, he has been impressive as a fantasy football weapon. Through the first four weeks, his 23.4 fantasy points per game represent the second-highest on this slate despite having the fifth-highest salary.
He has the seventh-most rushing yards (131) but is also tied with league-leader Lamar Jackson in the rushing touchdown (4) department among quarterbacks. He has only thrown three passing touchdowns to his one interception. In his three starts, he has finished with over 16 fantasy points in all of them, and over 20 fantasy points in two of the three. In those starts, he has finished as the QB4, QB19, and QB2 respectively.
This week, he draws a divisional matchup against a Tennessee Defense that allows the 15th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Titans have allowed 285 or more passing yards in three of their four matchups and five passing touchdowns. While a little harder to run against, the Titans’, their defense will struggle to keep this exciting rookie from finding a way to score fantasy points.
Richardson maintains a safe floor with his legs, while offering a fairly high ceiling with his potential to score from close. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Matthew Stafford (LAR) vs. PHI: $6,800 (FanDuel)
Stafford is currently the QB18, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game. Not too shabby for a 35-year-old with the mobility of a giraffe on a tricycle. The downside is that he has only thrown three touchdown passes to his five interceptions, which seems like a stat Jameis Winston would be proud of. Stafford has thrown 300+ yards in three of four contests this season due to some holes on the defensive side of the ball. This week, he gets put into a matchup that favors an aerial approach but with a potential bonus; the potential return of Cooper Kupp.
The Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. They are also a potent offense that will score points against the Rams defense, creating a recipe for volume. They’re allowing 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, which is third-most currently.
At the time of this writing, Kupp is expected to suit up for the first time this season and alongside rookie sensation Puka Nacua. Here is where the oddsmakers tip their hand. Both Kupp ($8500) and Nacua ($8,000) are in the elite range of pricing for receivers. If the ones who set the pricing are plunking both in that range, look to the one responsible for getting them the ball.
Stafford is no stranger to playing from behind. Throughout his career, he has led 34 fourth-quarter comebacks. While he has been down, he is rarely out. The Eagles have an explosive defense that will put points on the board and Stafford will calmly settle into a familiar mode of trying to air it out in catch-up mode.
Stafford represents low ownership and a high ceiling. He can be rostered in both cash and GPP contests.
Running Backs
Breece Hall (NYJ) vs. Denver: $5,400 (DraftKings)
Let’s take a jog down memory lane for a moment. In week one, Breece Hall tallied 127 rushing yards on 10 attempts, including an 83-yard burst that he nearly took to the house. Since then, he has not had a big game or a big workload. Over the next three weeks, he only saw double-digit carries one time. News recently came out that the Jets would no longer impose a snap count on their second-year running back, all but promising more volume to come. And what a matchup to unleash Hall in.
Continuing our stroll down memory lane, remember when the Denver Broncos allowed three Miami Dolphins running backs to total 351 rushing yards and five touchdowns in week three? They allowed 96 rushing yards, two touchdowns the prior week, and 103 rushing yards last week. The Broncos defense has a type, and it’s that kid from elementary school that you didn’t want to play Red Rover with because he would drop your hand and possibly wet himself at the mere thought of someone running in his general area.
Zach Wilson showed flashes of ability last week against the Chiefs. If he can play competent football and they scheme some runs for Hall, finishing as a top-five running back is not only within the realm of possibility, it is a favored outcome.
Given the recent news and the salary, expect Hall to be a fairly chalky play on this slate. Therefore, he is more suited to cash games but can also be sprinkled into GPP contests, especially for multiple lineups.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) vs. CAR: $5,900 (FanDuel)
Let’s be honest: Gibbs has been disappointing for fantasy purposes, while David Montgomery has been incredible. It would be far more weird if we did not already see a nearly identical setup last season with Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. However, this week could be a little different. At the time of the writing, Amon-Ra St. Brown is currently listed as doubtful to suit up for this game. St. Brown operates largely across the middle of the field in the short to intermediate pass range. If he does not suit up, some of that work will likely shift toward fellow rookie Sam LaPorta. It could also mean a little more schemed fit to get Gibbs in space with the ball in his hands.
The Panthers are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and 4.3 receptions to the position. Gibbs is currently averaging 4.5 targets on a per-game basis. If that gets dialed up a little bit in the absence of St. Brown, we may finally see some of the Gibbs production to match the hype.
Due to the risk, Gibbs is more of a GPP contest selection and should be surrounded by at least a few safe production players to mitigate the potential disappointment factor.
Wide Receivers
Zay Flowers (BAL) vs. PIT: $5,500 (DraftKings)
The explosive rookie is still searching for his first NFL touchdown. While typically not in the business of predicting touchdowns, this could be the week.
Flowers has seen ten targets in two of his first four games and nine across the other two. He has emerged as the preferred target behind only Mark Andrews. Flowers is eighth among wide receivers in team target share, coming in just above 27%.
The Steelers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They’re allowing the fourth-most receiving yards (216.5) and tied for first in average touchdowns per game at 1.5.
The volume and target share are both good. Flowers have an explosive gear that thus far remains untapped. This week, he has the matchup to bake plenty of upside into his salary. The touchdowns are coming. Flowers is a solid GPP play this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) vs. TEN: $6,600 (FanDuel)
Pittman has remained the primary focal point of the aerial portion of the Colts’ offense. He maintained a 27% target share through four weeks while leading the team in red zone targets. He has finished with 11 or more targets in three of his four games. Granted, he put up a dud last week against a tougher L.A. Rams defense, but this week’s matchup is far more tempting.
The Titans are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points against the position. Their top two corners are both allowing over a 76% catch rate. Their 206.3 receiving yards to the position is the fifth-highest in the NFL.
For the salary, Pittman is shaping up to be a rock-solid value play for this slate. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (ARI) vs. CIN: $3,500 (DraftKings)
Yes, the tight end position, aside from a select few top targets, is largely disappointing on a week-to-week basis. Chasing volume and matchups remains a small advantage for those who do not want to pay up at the position.
Zach Ertz is second among all tight ends with 30 targets. Granted, it has only resulted in 136 receiving yards (16th-most among the position) and zero touchdowns. He is also fourth in red zone targets.
The Bengals represent a good matchup for the 32-year-old. Through four weeks, the Bengals allow the fifth-most fantasy points, the tenth-most yards, and tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed per game.
Great matchup, elite volume, and he has earned the red zone targets. Come on regression, do not fail us now.
At his low-risk salary in a full PPR environment, Ertz has upside while allowing some extra money to spend up on other positions.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) vs. HOU: $5,100 (FanDuel)
The good news is that no other team targets their tight ends more than the Atlanta Falcons. The bad news is that Jonnu Smith has only one less target than the first-round pick. Thanks, Arthur. Pitts has 21 targets (5.25/game) through four weeks, resulting in 121 scoreless yards.
The Texans are not an ideal matchup as a middle-of-the-pack defense that has only allowed one touchdown to the position thus far. However, here is the list of tight ends they have faced thus far. Isaiah Likely, Kylen Granson, Will Mallory, Evan Engram and Pat Freiermuth. Evan Engram hung 67 yards on them two weeks ago. Freiermuth failed to complete the game. In other words, this matchup seems better than the numbers may suggest thus far.
Pitts salary has dropped another $200 over the last week. Spend smart around him, and he can be worked into a competitive roster build for GPPs. Pitts has a game coming, and this game could feature a little more back-and-forth scoring than initially expected. Utilizing Pitts is risky and asking for disappointment, but the upside is there, and Drake London will see the tougher coverage.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
