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With six teams on a bye last week and the fantasy heavyweights like the Eagles, Dolphins, 49ers and Vikings not on the main slate, I decided to take a bye week myself.
Truth be told, I was sick, but the bye week story sounds better. Anyway, on to this week’s slate…
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 8
Quarterback
DraftKings
Sam Darnold (SF) vs. CIN $4,300
Darnold is the no-brainer value quarterback this week. With the 49ers having played Monday night after the main slate prices had been released, DraftKings (DK) had no opportunity to raise his price. Assuming QB Brock Purdy misses this game with a concussion, Darnold is priced like a backup QB — cheaper than guys like Will Levis, Clayton Tune, and Bailey Zappe. If Darnold gets you 13 points, he hits three times value and allows you to pay up at every other position.
Others to consider: Sam Howell (WAS) $5,200
Fanduel
Sam Darnold (SF) vs. CIN $6,100
It’s not often I will have the same quarterback on both Fanduel and DraftKings, but the value is too great not to play him. I trust head coach Kyle Shanahan to put Darnold in a position to succeed, and he really doesn’t need to do much to pay off his salary.
Others to consider: Zach Wilson (NYJ) $6,600
Running Back
DraftKings
Kareem Hunt (CLE) @ SEA $5,200
With the news that Hunt’s backfield mate, Jerome Ford, will miss at least this game, if not more, Hunt immediately becomes a huge value — even in a tough matchup with the Seahawks. Hunt has only had 22 total carries the last two weeks, but he has three TDs to show for it, and I would expect his passing down volume to increase as well. The Seahawks are the third-best defense against the run so far this year DVOA (Rotogrinders), but at only $5,200, with his propensity to find the endzone and his expected increase in workload, it makes Hunt a nice salary saver.
Others to consider: Devin Singletary (HOU) $4,400 | Jaylen Warren (PIT) $4,900
Fanduel
Emari Demercado (ARI) vs. BAL $5,600
Demercado was a popular punt play a couple of weeks ago, and then the Cardinals came out and barely used him. Last week no one was using him, and he acculated 13 carries for 58 yards to go along with four catches on five targets for another 17 yards. The Ravens are a tough run defense, ranking seventh in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), but if he continues to get a heavy workload, he could still pay off his salary. He will likely need a touchdown to get there, but his price makes him worth the risk.
Others to consider: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) $6,400 | Darrell Henderson (LAR) $5,900
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Jordan Addison (MIN) @ GB $5,700
Addison had a monster game on Monday night, and as I’ve discussed in this column before, he gets the Monday Night Misprice treatment. DraftKings puts out its salaries for the main slate before the Monday night game is over. Therefore, they could not adjust his price after his big performance. The Packers are ranked 25th in pass DVOA, and the Vikings will likely have to pass it a ton again this week as they’ve been unable to establish any type of run game so far this season.
Others to consider: Zay Flowers (BAL) $5,600 | Diontae Johnson (PIT) $5,000 | Terry McLaurin (WAS) $5,300
Fanduel
Rashee Rice (KC) @ DEN $6,000
Don’t look now, but Rashee Rice is slowly becoming the Chiefs No. 1 wide receiver. He got 60% of the snaps last week, a season-high for him, led the team in both targets and receptions and currently leads all the Chiefs wide receivers in touchdown receptions. You combined that with the best matchup you can get in the Denver Broncos, ranked 32nd in pass DVOA, and his relatively low salary, and you have a great value on Fanduel.
Others to consider: Zay Flowers (BAL) $6,500 | Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) $7,100
Tight End
DraftKings
Trey McBride (ARI) vs. BAL $2,800
McBride’s tight end teammate, Zach Ertz, was placed on injured reserve (IR) and will miss at least the next four games. In his absence last week, McBride saw six targets last week. He only caught three of them for 29 yards, but it’s the volume you want from a cheap tight end like McBride. McBride is much more athletic than Ertz at this stage of their careers, and he was drafted to be a pass-catching tight end, so the stars are aligning for him to finally get a bigger role in this offense.
The Ravens are a terrible matchup for him, giving up the second-fewest points to tight ends (6.9 points per game per FTN), but his price is low enough that he can give you six to eight fantasy points, and you’ll be happy with that.
Fanduel
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) @ NYG $4,800
If you aren’t playing McBride, the only other viable value tight end is Conklin. He’s only $100 more than McBride on Fanduel and has a much better matchup than him. The Giants are ranked 30th in pass DVOA, and despite defending the tight end position fairly well, Conklin’s price tag and volume make him a viable alternative to the chalkier McBride.
Others to consider: Trey McBride (ARI) $4,700
Defense
DraftKings
Minnesota Vikings @ GB $2,500
Fresh off their stellar defensive effort against a formidable 49ers team, the Vikings get to play a substantially less formidable opponent in Green Bay. Jordan Love has not looked good in recent weeks, and if the Vikings defense plays anything like it did last week by shutting down the run game and causing Brock Purdy to try and beat them, then Love could be in for a long day.
Others to consider: Cincinnati Bengals $2,200
Fanduel
Cincinnati Bengals @ SF $3,600
The Bengals are coming off their bye week and get a matchup with a backup quarterback in San Francisco. Sam Darnold is the likely starter in this game, and while I expect Darnold to be good for daily fantasy purposes, I don’t expect him to be a good NFL quarterback this week. He has the tendency to hold the ball too long, taking unnecessary sacks, and he will try to force throws into tight coverages that could lead to turnovers.
Others to consider: Minnesota Vikings $3,700
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