This week’s first NFL action should be competitive since the game has a slight spread. However, the game’s low total indicates it might be a defensive tussle. This week’s Thursday Night Football Showdown primer will navigate the player pool to provide a palatable number of suggested options, provide insight into the most appealing Captain/MVP picks and offer lineup construction advice.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
Spread: NO -1.0
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Jaguars Analysis: Trevor Lawrence sprained his knee late in the Week 6 contest. He's practicing, providing optimism that he'll suit up. However, as Joe Burrow's struggles while playing through his calf injury illustrated, lower-body injuries to quarterbacks shouldn't be dismissed as unimportant.
There's a risk Lawrence's knee injury will hinder his performance. Nevertheless, he could be busy as a passer. The Jaguars have leaned heavily on the running game, but the Saints' opponents have avoided running against their stout run defense. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Jags have passed on only 50% of their plays in a neutral game script this year, the second-lowest mark in the NFL. However, New Orleans's opponents have passed on 59% of their plays in neutral game scripts.
If Lawrence is healthy enough to play, they'll presumably give him a chance to chuck the pigskin more than usual, given the challenging matchup for the running game. Lawrence is averaging 239.8 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns and three interceptions this season. The third-year signal-caller has added value on the ground, but it's probably best to temper expectations for his rushing upside because of his knee injury.
The matchup is rough for Lawrence at a blush. The Saints have allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (182.0), seven touchdown passes and recorded eight interceptions this year. However, they've faced a thoroughly unimpressive collection of quarterbacks. Thus, their success when defending the pass should be taken with a grain of salt. Per Pro-Football-Reference, New Orleans also has the 11th-lowest pressure rate (19.6%) this season. So, Lawrence's mobility might not be tested. Lawrence isn't a must-use player, but his ceiling is worth chasing on some showdown lineups.
Christian Kirk is the most appealing option among his pass-catching weapons. The veteran slot wide receiver is averaging 5.5 receptions per game and 64.0 receiving yards per game with two receiving touchdowns. In addition, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's been pacing the team in routes (111), targets (24) and receiving yards (211) and second in receptions (17) since Week 4.
Kirk also has the best matchup. First, he has the best matchup via PFF's WR/CB matchup chart. Second, according to The 33rd Team, the Saints have allowed the 15th-most DraftKings (20.3) and the 15th-fewest FanDuel (15.0) points per game to slot wideouts. Their mid-pack marks against slot wide receivers are much less imposing than their ranks against perimeter wide receivers, against whom they've allowed the sixth-fewest DK (11.6) and the seventh-fewest FD (9.6) points per game. Hence, that's why Calvin Ridley isn't on the table.
Evan Engram has a tall mountain to climb against the Saints, too. They've allowed only 3.2 receptions per game, 28.5 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns to tight ends this year. Still, Engram has the second-most targets (21), the most receptions (18) and the third-most receiving yards (128) for the Jags since Week 4. The athletic tight end has a cheap enough salary to warrant stomaching in a lousy matchup.
Travis Etienne is also stuck in an undesirable matchup. Regardless, his role in Jacksonville's offense is dreamy. In the previous three games, Etienne has handled 85.3% of the backfield's rush share and ran 72 routes versus only 10 routes for Tank Bigsby, three for JaMycal Hasty and one for D'Ernest Johnson. Etienne converted his mouthwatering gig into 246 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 10 receptions and 93 receiving yards in those contests.
Jacksonville's defense is also viable, especially when utilized with Etienne for correlation. Derek Carr is taking care of the football. However, according to PFF, he's tied for the eighth-highest Pressure-to-Sack Percentage (22.1 P2S%) among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this season.
Saints Analysis: Last week might have been a sign Carr is moving past his AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. The veteran quarterback passed for a season-high 353 yards on a season-high 50 attempts in Week 6, snapping a streak of three games under 185 passing yards.
Carr should be asked to shoulder the load this week against a pass-funnel defense. Jacksonville's opponents have passed on 66% of their plays in a neutral game script. Fortunately, the Saints already weren't shy about letting Carr cut it loose, passing on 59% of their plays in a neutral game script this year and kicking it up to 64% since Week 4.
The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards per game (270.3) and nine passing touchdowns this year. If Carr's shoulder was what was hindering his play, this is a matchup he can take advantage of.
Chris Olave is the top option in the passing attack. He's leading the Saints in receiving yards per game (69.0), second in receptions per game (5.3) and has one touchdown reception.
Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are also stellar options. Since Week 4, Thomas has had more receptions (13 versus 10) and receiving yards (163 compared to 112) than Olave. During that three-game stretch, Shaheed also popped off for seven receptions, 146 receiving yards and one touchdown, with an 18.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Olave also had a deep aDOT since Week 4, sitting at 19.5 yards downfield. Jacksonville can be exploited on deep passes (20-plus air yards). The Jaguars have allowed 11 completions on 24 deep passes for 450 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions this year.
Jacksonville has also struggled with wideouts on the perimeter. Wide receivers aligned wide against the Jaguars have scored the most DK points (26.3) and the most FD points (20.7) per game. The Saints have moved their top three wideouts around the alignment. Thus, Olave, Thomas and Shaheed should get opportunities to barbecue the Jags from the perimeter.
Foster Moreau is a viable punt since Juwan Johnson is out again. While the Saints inexplicably force-fed Taysom Hill eight targets for seven receptions and 49 scoreless yards on 33 routes in Week 6, Moreau efficiently tallied four targets, four receptions and 33 yards on 14 routes. Maybe the club will come to their senses and flip the roles for them this week. Regardless, Moreau proved he could chip in enough in a complementary role to pay off his low salary at DK and FD.
The Saints haven't wasted time easing Alvin Kamara into a bell-cow role. Instead, he's handled 77.6% of the backfield's rush share and been a favorite for Carr in the passing game. In three games since returning from a suspension, Kamara is first on the Saints in targets (25) and receptions (23), producing 86 receiving yards.
The running back's pass-catching chops are a good stylistic fit for a matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed only 56.8 rushing yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry to running backs this year. However, they've coughed up 6.5 receptions per game and 40.5 receiving yards per game to them. Kamara should do enough through the air to pick up the slack if he's inefficient as a runner.
The Saints are favored at home, and Lawrence has a knee injury, which could be a recipe for their DST to be an asset on this showdown slate. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.6) and recorded 10 turnovers and 13 sacks this season.
Final Thoughts: Kamara, Etienne, Carr and Kirk are my favorite Captain/MVP options on this showdown slate. The lineup construction options are vast on this slate, ranging from onslaught builds for each team to everything in between. My favorite construction is slightly unbalanced and leaning toward the Saints, but gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs should create a mix of all construction types.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
