The first contest in Week 6 is a lopsided affair. The hapless Broncos are facing the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in Kansas City. It’s likely to be a beatdown, and the Chiefs have the most desirable players and the only suggested Captain/MVP choices. Nevertheless, the Broncos have a few intriguing options, and gamers must use at least one on their showdown lineups.
Game: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -10.5
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Broncos Analysis: The game is unlikely to be neutral for most of the contest. Still, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Broncos have passed on 56% of their 156 plays in a neutral game script this year. Obviously, that number will likely surge in a negative game script when they need to pass to catch up. Additionally, the Broncos might lean into the pass more heavily even when in a neutral game script since Kansas City's opponents have passed on 63% of their 197 plays in a neutral game script this year.
Denver has had many problems. Yet, Russell Wilson hasn't been one of them. Expected Points Added Plus Completion Percentage Over Expected (EPA+CPOE) isn't a fantasy stat, but, per RBSDM, Wilson is sixth in EPA+CPOE this year. He's averaging 242.0 passing yards per game with 11 touchdown passes and two interceptions this year, exceeding 300 passing yards twice and passing for multiple touchdowns four times. Wilson is a stellar pick on this showdown slate.
Jerry Jeudy is the most exciting option in Denver's pass-catching corps. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jeudy was targeted on 21.1% of his routes and led the Broncos in receptions (14) and receiving yards (183). In addition, while he hasn't been good in every matchup against the Chiefs, he's had more success than Courtland Sutton, namely last year. In two games against Kansas City in 2022, Jeudy had 17 targets, 15 receptions, 111 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Marvin Mims is also an intriguing pick. The rookie is merely a rotational player while acclimating to the professional level. However, the speedster has big-play potential and might be the best stylistic fit for this matchup. According to PFF, the Chiefs had a top-10 man-coverage rate entering Week 5, and Mims's 83 receiving yards against man coverage led the Broncos this year on two receptions.
Adam Trautman's case for use is greater if Greg Dulcich cannot suit up this week. Yet, Trautman ran 23 routes versus only 12 for Dulcich in Week 1. So, the veteran tight end is a reasonable choice, even if the second-year player returns from the Injured Reserve (he was activated, starting his 21-day window to practice, but not ensuring he'll play on Thursday night).
Chiefs Analysis: Predictably, the Chiefs are leaning on the defending MVP, Patrick Mahomes. This season, they've passed on 60% of their 239 plays in a neutral game script. They also haven't entirely taken their foot off the accelerator when leading by at least eight points, passing on 50% of those 88 plays.
Mahomes hasn't been perfect this year. However, he's averaging 257.4 passing yards per game, with 10 touchdowns, despite getting yanked early in a blowout victory in Week 3. Mahomes's 272 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Bears prove he can smash, even if he's pulled early in a similar blowout against Denver's pitiful defense this week.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Broncos have the lowest pressure rate (13.6%) and have coughed up 263.0 passing yards per game and 13 touchdowns this year. Thus, it's an eruption spot for Mahomes.
Travis Kelce was a limited practice participant with his low-ankle sprain on Tuesday, putting him on a trajectory to play this week. The stud tight end's status still needs to be monitored when the Chiefs announce inactives, as they could opt to give him an extended break before Week 7 since this is a cupcake matchup.
It hasn't been a typical monster season for Kelce. Yet, even though he missed the opener, Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets (37), receptions per game (6.8), receiving yards per game (55.5) and touchdown receptions (three). As a result, Kelce is an excellent pick, even if he's not his usual world-beater self.
Skyy Moore and Justin Watson are the most intriguing ancillary pass-catching options. Moore's playing time is sliding. Nonetheless, the second-year wideout was fifth on the team in routes (65) since Week 3, trailing only Marquez Valdes-Scantling (77 routes) and Watson (67 routes) among Kansas City's wide receivers.
Moore is a better matchup fit than rookie Rashee Rice, too. Per PFF, the Broncos had the 11th-highest man-coverage rate (26.0%) entering Week 5. Moore is first on the Chiefs in targets (eight), tied for second in receptions (four), second in receiving yards (81) and tied for second in receiving touchdowns (one) against man coverage this year. Conversely, only six of Rice's 23 targets this year were against man coverage, resulting in one reception for an eight-yard touchdown.
Watson has torched man coverage this year, hauling in all four of his targets for a team-high 123 receiving yards. He had a 29.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT) on his four targets against man coverage this year.
The matchup is mouthwatering for Watson, too. Denver's opponents are 11 for 15 (73.3%) for 356 passing yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions on deep passes (20-plus yard passes) this season. So, Watson is the best bargain selection on this slate.
Isiah Pacheco has an outstanding role, rock-solid production and a cushy matchup. The second-year running back has handled 65.4% of Kansas City's backfield's rushing attempts since Week 3, rumbling for 232 yards and three touchdowns during that stretch. He also ran more routes (42 versus 37) than Jerick McKinnon since Week 3, producing six receptions for 68 yards.
Pacheco can steamroll Denver's lousy run defense. According to The 33rd Team, running backs have averaged an NFL-high 164.2 rushing yards per game at 6.1 yards per carry against the Broncos this year. Denver has also tied for the most rushing touchdowns (eight) allowed to running backs and ceded 6.0 receptions per game, 51.2 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns to them.
Understandably, teams have frequently run against the Broncos. Denver's opponents have rushed on 47% of their 230 plays in a neutral game script this year. The Chiefs will unlikely abandon their pass-happy tendencies, but they could slightly reduce their pass rate in such a favorable matchup for Pacheco. Finally, obviously, the game script will be ideal for Pacheco.
Final Thoughts: Mahomes is the runaway best selection for Captain/MVP. Pacheco is the second-best pick. Watson is a dark horse pick, especially if Kelce is ruled out.
Onslaught lineups and unbalanced lineups tilting toward the Chiefs are the best lineup construction. However, using a few balanced lineups isn't outrageous, either.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
