The Sunday Night Football game this week has a heavyweight fight feel. Two explosive offenses are squaring off in what should be a shootout, evidenced by the game’s total exceeding 50 points. Each team has elite talent at the top, creating tough cuts on showdown rosters. Fortunately, there are a few low-salaried options to mix in. Let’s figure out how to attack this top-heavy showdown slate optimally.
Game: Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -2.5
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Dolphins Analysis: Miami's offense is absurdly efficient. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Dolphins are averaging an NFL-high 8.0 yards per play, 2.0 yards higher than the second-highest mark. Tua Tagovailoa is essentially the point guard of the offense, intelligently distributing the ball to his speedy playmakers.
Head coach Mike McDaniel is asking a lot of the passing game. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Dolphins have passed on 61% of their 185 plays in a neutral game script. Their pass-happy approach is a matchup fit against Philadelphia's pass-funnel defense. The Eagles' opponents have passed on 66% of their 267 plays in a neutral game script. It stands to reason the Dolphins will stick to their pass-heavy approach against a defense that's stout against the run and less impressive against the pass.
Fortunately, Tua can get the job done in a pass-heavy offense. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tagovailoa is first in passing yards per game (312.7), first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (9.31 ANY/A) and tied for first in touchdown passes (14).
Tyreek Hill is the alpha in Miami's passing attack. Hill is seventh in target share (30.6%), third in air yards (745), tied for 10th in receptions per game (7.0), first in receiving yards per game (135.7) and first in receiving touchdowns (six). Nothing else must be added to acknowledge Hill's dominance on the gridiron this season.
Jaylen Waddle is comfortably the No. 2 weapon in Miami's passing attack. The speedy third-year wideout is second on the Dolphins in receptions per game (4.8), receiving yards per game (59.2) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (two). Waddle isn't a must-use option on this star-studded showdown slate. Still, Philadelphia's pass-funnel tendencies could lead to Waddle seeing extra opportunities in a plus matchup.
According to The 33rd Team, the Eagles have yielded 19.2 DraftKings points per game and 15.4 FanDuel Points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They've been giving more to slot wideouts, allowing them 24.6 DK points per game and 18.9 FD points per game. According to The 33rd Team, Hill's slot usage has ranged from 54.1% to 80.8% and Waddle's has oscillated between 61.4% and 80.0% in 2023. Both can eat this week.
Braxton Berrios and Cedrick Wilson are intriguing punts. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Berrios is fourth on the Dolphins in routes (52) since Week 4. He had 10 receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets in those contests. Since Week 4, Wilson has run only 33 routes. However, he was fed six targets, resulting in five receptions, 68 receiving yards and 2.06 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR). Berrios and Wilson have also regularly resided in the slot, enhancing the DFS outlook for both.
Raheem Mostert is notably excluded from the suggested players. He was a tough cut. Mostert is balling out of his mind, but Philadelphia's run defense is stingy. The Eagles have held running backs to only 49.2 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. Mostert's speed gives him a chance to buck Philadelphia's trend of bottling up running backs, but that's a chance I'm willing to take.
Jeff Wilson has returned to fully practicing, setting the stage for him to be activated from the Injured Reserve (IR) and make his season debut. It's a brutal matchup. Nevertheless, he's priced at the minimum salary at DK and split work with Mostert last season. Wilson is too cheap for a player who should have a role as Mostert's complement.
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles have a relatively balanced offense by 2023 standards. They've passed on 55% of their 313 plays in a neutral game script and rushed at a 45% clip. Their offensive tendencies nearly mirror those of Miami's opponents this year. The Dolphins have faced a 56% pass rate in neutral game scripts this year.
Jalen Hurts hasn't been as sharp this year as last season. Nevertheless, he's been a fantasy darling. The dual-threat quarterback has averaged 257.0 passing yards per game and 42.2 rushing yards per game. He's also produced seven passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns. As a result, Hurts is a game-script-proof stud.
Any offseason chatter about A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith being co-No.1 wide receivers has been dismantled by the former dominating and the latter struggling this season. The physically imposing Brown is eighth in target share (30.3%), first in air yards (843), tied for 10th in receptions per game (7.0), third in receiving yards per game (112.0) and has two touchdown receptions. Brown should wreck Miami's secondary this week.
When considering his salary, Dallas Goedert is the second-most appealing player in Philadelphia's passing attack. Goedert is averaging 4.3 receptions per game and 41.2 receiving yards per game with one touchdown reception this season. The matchup is stellar for him this week. The Dolphins have allowed 5.7 receptions per game, 51.8 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns to tight ends this year.
Olamide Zaccheaus hasn't done much in his first year on the Eagles. Thus, they signed Julio Jones to the practice squad this week and already elevated him for this week's contest. Jones isn't a contributor on special teams. Thus, it's unlikely they wasted an elevation from the practice squad (there's a limit of three) if they didn't plan to use him on offense, albeit likely on a limited basis.
Interestingly, Jones's last game for the Bucs was his most productive. The veteran wideout ran 35 routes and had 10 targets, seven receptions, 74 receiving yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay's Wild Card Round loss to the Cowboys. So, he might still have something in the tank. Even as an ancillary option, Jones can provide DFS value at his tiny salary.
D'Andre Swift is a high-upside, game-script-proof choice. In the previous three weeks, he's handled 73.2% of the backfield's rush share and ran 73 routes versus 46 for Kenneth Gainwell. In those games, Swift had 144 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, 19 targets, 18 receptions, 101 receiving yards and one touchdown reception.
The matchup is nice for him this week. The Dolphins have allowed 96.5 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, 3.0 receptions per game, 29.5 receiving yards per game and 9.8 yards per reception to running backs in 2023.
Final Thoughts: Hill, Hurts and Brown are the most appealing Captain/MVP picks. Tagovailoa and Swift are also worthy choices for that role in GPPs.
Balanced lineups are my preferred construction for this showdown slate. However, lineups tilting toward the Dolphins are also excellent because they have more value options. Finally, onslaught lineups leaning toward either team are also viable.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
