The 49ers have gotten the better of the Cowboys lately. They’re favored tonight and have all their elite weapons at their disposal. The Cowboys have a wider spread of contributors, resulting in more options to choose from for this showdown slate. This showdown primer will narrow the focus to the most appealing selections while highlighting the best picks for Captain/MVP and providing lineup construction advice.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -3.5
Over/Under: 45.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: It's been an unusual start to the year for the Cowboys. They've blown three opponents out and lost to the Cardinals. As a result, they haven't been in neutral game scripts often. Still, according to RotoViz's pace app, the Cowboys have passed on 64% of their NFL-low 76 plays in a neutral game script this season.
Dallas's offensive tendencies in a neutral game script mirror how teams have attacked San Francisco's defense, passing on 65% of 89 plays in a neutral game script against the 49ers. Unfortunately, Dak Prescott has struggled in his two most recent starts against the 49ers. In playoff losses in 2021 and 2022, Prescott completed just 46 of 80 passes for 460 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. He also took six sacks in those contests.
Prescott isn't a must-use player by any stretch of the imagination. Yet, he fits one specific lineup construction I'll discuss when providing my final thoughts on this showdown slate.
CeeDee Lamb is the most exciting piece of Dallas's passing attack. He leads the Cowboys in target share (22.2%), air yards (237), receptions (23) and receiving yards (309). Lamb has also scored a touchdown and toted the rock three times for 21 yards this year.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Lamb also leads the Cowboys in routes (135) and has aligned in the slot on 72.4% of his passing snaps. His alignment is outstanding for this matchup. According to The 33rd Team, the 49ers have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings (25.7) and the 10th-most FanDuel (18.1) points per game to slot wideouts this year.
Jake Ferguson is the second-most enticing option in Dallas's passing attack, albeit a distant second. His matchup is daunting, but Ferguson is playing well and underpriced. The second-year tight end is second on the Cowboys in target share (18.5%) and receptions (17) and third in receiving yards (147).
Michael Gallup has outplayed Brandin Cooks and is the best non-Lamb wideout selection from the Cowboys. He's averaging 3.3 receptions per game and 41.3 receiving yards per game.
KaVontae Turpin is a punt on top-heavy showdown squads. The 2021 USFL MVP has carried the ball six times for 66 yards and hauled in four receptions for 25 yards. The diminutive gadget player is also utilized near the red zone, receiving four targets and two rush attempts inside the 20-yard line this year.
Tony Pollard is the team's bell-cow running back and an exciting choice. His matchup isn't easy. Still, He's averaged 15.3 rush attempts per game, 77.8 rushing yards per game, 3.8 receptions per game and 15.3 receiving yards per game this season. The do-it-all running back has scored two touchdowns and can benefit immensely from Dallas's offensive line being completely healthy this week.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is terrorizing defenses this year, and the 49ers have relied heavily on him, rushing on 46% of their 131 plays in a neutral game script. Conveniently, teams have attacked the Cowboys on the ground in neutral game scripts this year, running on 52% of their 73 plays in a neutral game script.
The Cowboys don't have a pushover run defense, but CMC can overcome any matchup. He leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (114.8) and is tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns (six). CMC is also averaging 4.5 receptions per game and 35.3 receiving yards per game with one receiving touchdown this season.
Brock Purdy doesn't get enough credit for playing well. Nevertheless, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the second-year quarterback is second in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (9.08 ANY/A), first in Quarterback Rating (115.1) and first in QBR (84.6).
Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft wasn't overwhelmed by facing the Cowboys in the postseason last year, either. He completed 19 of 29 pass attempts for 214 yards with zero touchdowns, zero interceptions and eight rushing yards. Purdy has all his weapons this week and is an asset on this showdown slate.
Brandon Aiyuk is unquestionably the best pass-catching option for this matchup.
Aiyuk isn't just a matchup-driven pick, either. He's having a fantastic season, averaging 5.7 receptions per game and 106.7 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns in three games. Moreover, per PFF, Aiyuk is first among wideouts targeted at least 15 times this year in Yards per Route Run (4.57 Y/RR).
Deebo Samuel is a nifty pick because of his big-play potential. Additionally, his less impressive numbers against man coverage than Aiyuk should cause him to be rostered on fewer DFS teams, enhancing his GPP appeal. The versatile wideout is averaging 75.3 scrimmage yards per game, 2.8 rush attempts per game and 4.3 receptions per game with two touchdowns this year.
Final Thoughts: CMC is the best Captain/MVP on the slate. However, Lamb, Pollard and Aiyuk are also compelling alternatives. On teams with Lamb as the Captain/MVP, Prescott is a must-use player in a flex spot since Lamb's upside correlates to Prescott having success. The same logic applies to Aiyuk as the Captain/MVP and Purdy in the flex.
Finally, my favorite lineups are slightly leaning toward the 49ers. But I also love some 49ers onslaught constructions and balanced lineups.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
