This was supposed to be a marquee matchup when the schedule makers put together this season’s primetime schedule. Sadly, a critical injury makes this a lopsided affair. Thus, the suggested players heavily tilt toward the Chiefs. This piece will examine the underlying data to make the best player selections and analyze the optimal lineup constructions for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Spread: KC -8.5
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs should throttle the Jets, and Patrick Mahomes spearheads Kansas City's offense. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Chiefs have passed on 65% of their 125 plays in a neutral game script this season. They don't entirely take their foot off the accelerator when crushing their opponents, either. They've passed on 48% of their 78 plays when leading by at least eight points in 2023.
The reigning MVP isn't having his best season. Still, that's relative to elite production. Mahomes averages 267.7 passing yards per game and has tossed seven touchdowns versus two interceptions this year. He's also chipping in a career-high 34.3 rushing yards per game. Mahomes is a no-brainer selection.
Travis Kelce is another elite pick. The superstar tight end was absent for the Week 1 contest with an injury but posted 11 receptions, 95 receiving yards and two touchdowns in two subsequent games. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kelce has been targeted on an eye-popping 31.5% of his 54 routes. He's also a trusted weapon in the red zone. Kelce has four targets and two touchdowns inside the 10-yard line in only two games in 2023. So, he's a target hog and an integral player in scoring territory, the ideal combo in a Mahomes-led offense.
The rest of Kansas City's pass-catching options are a hodge podge of interchangeable players. Still, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (98 routes) and Skyy Moore (86 routes) have run the most routes on the team.
MVS has only five receptions for 98 yards, but he's not used as only a vertical weapon. Instead, per PFF, MVS has two targets short (zero to nine yards downfield), two medium (10 to 19 yards) and three deep (20-plus yards). It's great he has deep-ball usage in his bag. Yet, MVS can catch a few higher-completion-percentage passes in the short and intermediate areas of the field.
Moore was blanked in Week 1. However, the second-year wideout has bounced back with seven receptions for 112 receiving yards and a touchdown since he posted a bagel.
Justin Watson is a one-trick pony, but he's performed that trick well this season. On 64 routes, he has 12 targets at a 23.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this year, converting the deep shots into seven receptions for 159 yards. The veteran speedster is a volatile pick. Yet, he's underpriced and can pay off his bargain salary on one reception with his field-stretching usage.
Kansas City's top running backs, Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon can score points through the air, too. Pacheco has run 53 routes to 43 for McKinnon this season. Each has seven receptions, with Pacheco's resulting in 47 scoreless yards and McKinnon's producing 53 yards and two touchdowns.
The matchup is good for them through the air. According to The 33rd Team, the Jets are tied for the fifth-most receiving yards per game (40.7) and tied for the second-most receptions allowed per game (6.7) to running backs this year.
Pacheco is the more likely of the two to pile up yards as a runner, and both are used in the red zone. The second-year running back has handled 58.3% of Kansas City's backfield's rush attempts and averaged 51.7 rushing yards per game. And inside the 10-yard line this year, Pacheco has seven rushes, one target and one rushing touchdown. Meanwhile, McKinnon has zero rushes but two targets, both resulting in touchdowns.
Jets Analysis: Zach Wilson still isn't an NFL-caliber quarterback. Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this year, PFF ranks Wilson 32nd as a passer. The club signed Trevor Siemian to the practice squad earlier this week. The veteran won't be active this week, and the Jets needed a third quarterback. Still, the addition might be the first sign Wilson's leash is shrinking.
The Jets have scored only 36 points on offense this year, and Wilson could conceivably get yanked for Tim Boyle if they're a dumpster fire again this week. Thus, Boyle is a contrarian consideration at DraftKings. Although, he's too expensive on FanDuel to be a viable choice.
Allen Lazard is tied for first on the Jets in routes (99), second in targets (13), tied for third in receptions (seven) and second in receiving yards (108). His numbers don't spark excitement but make him a useful bargain option.
Tyler Conklin is the most affordable, helpful player from the Jets, and his salary relief is also valuable. Conklin is third on the Jets in routes (76), third in targets (12), second in receptions (nine) and third in receiving yards (78). If Conklin produces his season averages in a probable negative game script for the Jets, he'll pan out for gamers who use him on DFS rosters.
Final Thoughts: Mahomes is easily the top Captain/MVP option. But gamers entering multiple lineups can also use Kelce or Pacheco for that role. On the teams that gamers use Pacheco as the Captain/MVP, it's appealing to use Kansas City's defense in a flex spot.
Finally, unsurprisingly, I suggest building onslaught lineups with only the required minimum of one Jet. Furthermore, saving salary on that Jet is ideal.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
