NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 8 (2023 Fantasy Football)

Did everyone survive the first bye-mageddon?? I certainly didn’t, and I even made the mistake of putting my trust in Deshaun Watson for DFS cash games (we all know how that worked out). Week 8 is upon us now, and we have a full slate once again (no byes), so let’s get down to it. There are a ton of injuries floating around, and some pricing errors as a result. Good luck!

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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 8

QUARTERBACK

Russell Wilson (QB – DEN), ($5300) vs KC

Russell Wilson has been a tale of two seasons thus far. He was QB9 through the first four weeks of the season (with two 300-yard games), but is QB22 over the last three. This kind of volatility is difficult to trust for cash, but Wilson should see more than enough volume against the Chiefs to pay off this price tag. Denver has opened the week as 8-point underdogs, which suggests extra dropbacks. Wilson did bottom out for 8.9 DK points against the Chiefs in Week 6, but this game is at home where Wilson’s QBR is eight points higher than on the road.

Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT), ($4900) vs JAX

Kenny Pickett has really done nothing this season to make us consider him for cash play, but his price tag of $4900 is still too cheap. This is a starting QB for a winning football team who has gotten his WR1 back in Diontae Johnson. Throw in the matchup against Jacksonville and there’s a ton of room for upside at such a cheap price tag. The Jags have allowed the fifth-highest YPA and the second-most FPPG to opposing QBs.

RUNNING BACK

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC), ($6100) @ DEN

Isiah Pacheco’s price tag did not move after this past week, which puts him into near must-play status against Denver. Pacheco didn’t run well against the Chargers, but he maintained a 16% target share for the second straight week while logging 17 touches or more for the fifth straight week. He has a positive game script against the Broncos (-8). In addition to allowing the most FPPG to the RB position, the Broncos have also allowed an insane 5.9 YPC and 12 rushing TDs.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ), ($5900) @ NYG

Like Pacheco, Breece Hall’s price tag simply feels like a mistake. The electric second-year RB has logged 42 touches in two games since being unleashed (5.65 YPC) and also has eight catches and two TDs in that span. Hall has had a chance to get even more healthy following the Jets’ Week 7 bye and face a Giants squad allowing the 10th most FPPG to opposing RBs.

WIDE RECEIVER

Drake London (WR – ATL), ($5100) @ TEN

Drake London is still being priced for the dud he put up in Week 1, but in reality, he’s been an every-week WR2 this season, and one you can bank on for targets. London has seven targets in all but one game this year, and double-digit looks in two of these games. Tennessee is a pass-funnel defense, allowing the ninth fewest FPPG to RBs but the sixth most to WRs. London has a rock-solid floor for cash.

Kendrick Bourne (WR – NE), @MIA

Kendrick Bourne’s price tag is rising, but not quickly enough. The de facto WR1 in the NE offense, Bourne has received 18 targets over the past two weeks. Even if JuJu Smith-Schuster returns, all indications are that he’ll play behind Bourne and DeVante Parker. New England gets a massive pace-up game against the Dolphins, and the negative game script should invite more NE dropbacks. Miami has allowed the eighth most FPPG to WRs and the second most receptions.

TIGHT END

Trey McBride (TE – ARI), ($2800) vs BAL

The Cardinals have placed Zach Ertz on IR, but it was trending towards #McBrideSZN anyway with the latter receiving 11 targets over the past two weeks. Now we should see McBride play near every snap, and his sub-3k price tag indicates he’s a full backup. The matchup against Baltimore is brutal (second fewest FPPG allowed to TEs), but this a sheer “price relative to volume” play. McBride can be utilized in all formats.