It got dicey there at the end, with Zach Ertz putting up a goose egg for almost the entire game, but his two catches in the final minutes were enough to propel me above the bubble in double-ups and win more than half of my head-to-heads. The big news for all of us in Week 6 was the rash of injuries that ravaged the slate, and the six teams on bye this week don’t make things any easier.
For daily fantasy sports (DFS), there will be countless spots to exploit pricing, so let’s dive right in.
It got dicey there at the end, with Zach Ertz putting up a goose egg for almost the entire game, but his two catches in the final minutes were enough to propel me above the bubble in double-ups and win more than half of my head-to-heads. The big news for all of us in Week 6 was the rash of injuries that ravaged the slate, and the six teams on bye this week don’t make things any easier.
For daily fantasy sports (DFS), there will be countless spots to exploit pricing, so let’s dive right in.
NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 7
QUARTERBACK
Don’t look now, but Sam Howell is currently a QB1 in 2023. It’s his first full year as a starter, so there will be growing pains, but the matchup cannot be denied this week. Even though the Giants’ D looked fiery against Josh Allen, they’re still dead last in the NFL in sack rate, and it’s not particularly close either. Howell can far outstrip his 17.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) this week and is not at all priced for it.
Geno Smith has not replicated the consistent magic he had in 2022, but his price is now reflective of this. Week 7 brings a matchup that has proven to be a get-right situation for offenses, as Arizona now ranks last in overall defensive efficiency. They also allow the fifth most FPPG to opposing QBs, and Seattle is opening the week with a healthy implied team total of 26 points.
RUNNING BACK
David Montgomery looks set to miss games, and Jahmyr Gibbs is not a sure thing to come back either. Even if Gibbs does return, it’s pretty established that he’ll be a change-of-pace back and not a lead runner (told you so!). This sets up Craig Reynolds for a pretty healthy workload this weekend, and he’s simply not priced that way. It does bear mentioning that the last time Montgomery sat, Gibbs acted as lead back and was given the RZ chances inside the five instead of Reynolds. However, hamstring injuries are not to be trifled with in the NFL, so I could see things shaking out differently in week 7.
The Rams’ running back situation seems a little more concrete than Detroit’s, and Zach Evans will likely be very popular this week at the minimum price tag. With Kyren Williams looking doubtful for the weekend and Ronnie Rivers heading to injured reserve (IR), Evans looks like the last healthy body in the Rams backfield. They have Royce Freeman, but we’ve seen a large sample size of him not being fit to handle heavy workloads.
According to relative athletic score (RAS), Evans scored an 8.72 out of 10, which lands him in the 75th percentile of every RB drafted in the last 35 years. Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing RBs, so there’s really no downside here.
WIDE RECEIVER
We’re not really exploiting Jakobi Meyers’ price tag in a vacuum here since his tag has risen every week, but more so his price compared to his role within that offense. After posting a 5-61-1 line on seven targets in Week 6, Meyers has now passed his teammate Davante Adams in FPPG (17.5 to 17). Adams remains at $8200, which is $2k more than Meyers, so taking the latter at a discount is a fine way to get exposure. Chicago is also a soft matchup for WRs, allowing the 12th most FPPG and the sixth-highest yards per catch (YPC) to the position.
Wan’Dale Robinson’s air yards share is a meager 9.7%, which takes away his guaranteed prize pool (GPP) appeal, but he’s firmly on the cash radar at a sub-$4k price tag again. Robinson has 20 targets over the last three weeks, and it’s clear he’s the most trusted receiver over the middle for New York, no matter who is quarterbacking them. He currently has an 88% catch rate on the season, which works beautifully for DraftKings’ PPR setting.
TIGHT END
Musgrave is the cheap TE du jour for Week 7. The rookie currently leads all TEs in target separation, and this week, he gets a Denver defense that is absolutely hemorrhaging fantasy points to the position. They’ve not only allowed the most FPPG but also the most receptions and the highest YPC. Musgrave doesn’t even need to score to clear value in this game.
